Why teams might roll the dice on a shaky QB class
Plus, my official draft QB rankings.
Driven by a desperate need to strike gold at the position, a team may find its franchise quarterback in this year’s draft.
And there’s a likelihood — a high likelihood, in fact — that said team is picking in the top three.
Be that as it may, while it could be argued against, it wouldn’t be particularly shocking.
The consensus forecast among analysts — and really anyone with scouting-calibrated eyes — is that this quarterback class is bleak. Yet in a draft abnormally lacking can’t-miss prospects, two may be selected in the top five.
Granted, it’s usual for quarterbacks to go early in the NFL draft. Since 2000, there have only been three drafts (2022, 2013, and 2000) where a quarterback wasn’t selected in the top 10. Kenny Pickett, picked No. 20 to Pittsburgh in 2022; E.J. Manuel, picked No. 13 to Buffalo in 2013; and Chad Pennington, picked No. 18 to the New York Jets in 2000, were the first quarterbacks taken in those drafts.
Pickett and Manuel are widely considered busts, while Pennington turned in a solid 11-year career that included two playoff wins.
The NFL's modern, pass-happy era has consistently proven that championship aspirations live and die with quarterback play. Organizations like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles have flourished after finding their franchise signal-callers.
The desperation to find "the guy" often leads teams to reach in the draft, as evidenced by the countless first-round quarterback busts who've set their franchises back half a decade or more. It's a cruel paradox — teams need elite quarterback play to compete, yet rushing to draft one out of desperation often leads to even more devastating consequences than waiting. The former is the driving thought in war rooms. That results in teams constantly drafting quarterbacks higher than their boards rank them.
ESPN content producer Paul Hembo analyzed first-round NFL draft picks' success rates — a hit-miss rate — based on whether players secured a second contract with their drafting team. His data spans from 2000 to 2019 — 20 years worth of drafts. Of 56 quarterback selections, 26 were deemed a “hit,” while 30 were considered a “miss.”
A mere 46% hit rate.
Yet, against these sobering historical odds, the 2024 quarterback class has transcended conventional expectations, with each first-round QB selection showing franchise-caliber promise in their rookie campaign. Perhaps most notably, the success of Michael Penix Jr. (Atlanta Falcons, No. 8) and Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, No. 12) — who many scouts didn’t have a first-round grade on — raised eyebrows. Now? GMs Terry Fontenot and George Paton look prescient in their aggressive first-round selections.
Last year was an anomaly.
This year’s class is certainly not alike.
Echoes around the NFL continue to reverberate that the top two quarterbacks in this year’s class, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, would be QB7 and QB8 in last year’s.
That’s why, if you’re a team in need of a QB, picking atop the 2025 draft is perilous.
E.g., the New York Giants, who have the No. 3 pick.
The Giants missed on Daniel Jones at No. 6 in 2019. Then, after consistent abysmal play, the Giants rewarded Jones with a four-year, $160 million contract. (It’s still hilariously sad. Poor Giants fans.) Selecting the wrong quarterback yet again would set the franchise back even more. However, due to the desperation for somewhat adequate play at the position, general manager Joe Schoen may feel pressured to find an answer sooner rather than later.
As for the Tennessee Titans, who pick No. 1. While I wouldn’t describe their QB situation as bad as the Giants, they’re faced with a tough decision: draft a hopeful franchise quarterback or draft the closest thing to a blue-chip prospect. It’s hard to ignore newest general manager Mike Borgonzi’s comments about “not passing on a generational talent.” Many, myself included, assumed that implied Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. I still do. But the Titans’ brass reportedly met with Sanders at the East-West Shrine Bowl, and ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported that Ward is “likely” to be the Titans’ pick, based on conversations with scouts and team executives at the Senior Bowl.
All of it could be a smokescreen. But where there’s smoke, there’s fire.
Sure, Ward and Sanders are tantalizing. The unknown always is. It’s fair to believe that both could develop into long-term starting quarterbacks. Ward is a strong-armed, big-play machine. But he often searches for the big play too much. Sanders, while not as physically gifted and with a less-live arm, is incredibly accurate and can move the ball downfield precisely, incrementally.
And it’s fair to question Sanders's maturity level from an anecdotal standpoint. He carries himself with the swagger you'd expect from Deion's son, though sometimes it borders on excessive pageantry. His postgame celebrations at Colorado — flashing his six-figure Richard Mille watch to an animated Buffs crowd — were viewed as deliberate flexes. Teams will need to get a feel for Sanders throughout the draft process to determine whether he’s fit to be the face of a franchise.
Beyond Ward and Sanders, the QB class is dull. Hence, needy teams may feel inclined to take one of the top two early.
There is always free agency, albeit, like the draft, a weak group. After his Pro Bowl season with the Minnesota Vikings, Sam Darnold is the cream of the crop. He completely rejuvenated his career under head coach Kevin O’Connell and is deserving of his imminent contract. The next best is Justin Fields. Young? Yes. Athletic? Yes. Playmaker? Yes. Proven? No.
Alright, alright. I can already hear Bears fans shouting from the Skydeck at Soldier Field. The attachment Bears fans have to Fields is interesting because, well, he did so little for the franchise. His limited production and inconsistent play cast warranted doubt on his ability to thrive in a starting role in 2025.
A quarterback-needy team will convince themselves Ward or Sanders is their franchise savior. Maybe they turn out to be. Maybe they don’t. And it may be a reach. Or it may not in their eyes. Nonetheless, there is detectable skepticism regarding this QB class.
Ranking the 2025 QB class
1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado - 6’2”, 216 pounds
An extremely accurate and precise passer. Sanders can surgically take his team downfield. He plays old-school football — driving the ball out of the pocket. He throws a beautiful ball. He’s an average athlete who can make plays with his legs when needed. However, questions arise when it comes to holding the ball too long. That’s easily coachable.
2. Cam Ward, Miami - 6’2”, 223 pounds
An above-average athlete who makes jaw-dropping plays outside the pocket. Ward combines rare improvisational skills with a lightning-quick release and a strong arm. As said earlier, he seeks the big play too often, leading to some head-scratching decisions. He’s also too nonchalant at times — standing flat-footed in the pocket is just one example.
3. Will Howard, Ohio State - 6’4”, 236 pounds
Howard has a prototypical frame. His national title run was nothing short of impressive. We got to see how he fared against the top defenses in the nation. He looked phenomenal. He has the physical tools, accuracy, arm strength, and athleticism teams look for in a QB. Before that run, he struggled with some inconsistencies.
4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss - 6'1 7/8”, 226 pounds
Lane Kiffin's offense perfectly showcased Dart's combination of athleticism and arm talent, as he consistently made plays both from the pocket and on the move. His aggressive mentality leads to some forced throws into tight windows, but his confidence and willingness to challenge defenses vertically open up the entire field. He may have the best deep ball in the class. His footwork is sloppy at times, especially when under center.
5. Kyle McCord, Syracuse - 6’2 1/2”, 224 pounds
After starting at Ohio State before transferring to Syracuse, McCord had an extremely productive season for the Orange, tossing 4,779 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions. Like Howard, he has a prototypical frame and an NFL arm. He’s just a complete pocket passer. You won’t find him making too many plays with his legs.
6. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon - 5'10 1/2”, 202 pounds
A seasoned veteran who's seen it all, Gabriel brought his talents from UCF to Oklahoma and finally to Oregon. His quick release and accuracy in the short-to-intermediate game are his calling cards, though his smaller frame and average arm strength raise some concerns. Gabriel's experience and football IQ make him an intriguing prospect.
7. Quinn Ewers, Texas - 6’2”, 210 pounds
The former five-star recruit possesses a natural throwing talent that’s enticing. He has good arm strength and the ability to throw from multiple platforms. His decision-making improved in his final season at Texas, showing better awareness of when to take chances and when to play it safe. However, inconsistent mechanics and footwork still lead to accuracy issues that must be ironed out at the next level. I think it would’ve benefited him to stay in college another year.
8. Jalen Milroe, Alabama - 6'1 1/2”, 220 pounds
Perhaps the most explosive athlete in the class, Milroe can take over games with his legs while possessing elite arm strength. His accuracy isn’t great, though. He had high expectations coming into 2024 but was underwhelming.
9. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame - 6'3 3/8”, 210 pounds
While Leonard doesn’t have the best arm, his passing improved drastically throughout the season. He’s a tough-nosed QB who puts his body on the line every play. He’s a playmaker with his legs. He needs development, but with his athleticism and frame, he could be a starting quarterback.
10. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana - 6’3”, 223 pounds
The younger brother of NFL quarterback Nathan Rourke, Kurtis is a pure pocket passer with incredible accuracy in clean pockets. After transferring from Ohio to Indiana, he showed improved pocket presence and better decision-making against Big Ten competition. Give credit where it’s due — Rourke played the entire 2024 season on a torn ACL. That’s some tough s—t.