There is more than meets the eye with J.J. McCarthy
I didn't think I would come away from the draft process enamored with McCarthy's game, but here we are. He's got the goods.
First things first: J.J. McCarthy has the traits NFL teams covet.
And I’m not just talking about his winning pedigree — a 27-1 record in his career at Michigan, culminating in the 2023 National Championship. There’s more to his game than people realize. It took a while for many, myself included, to dig up his hidden abilities. And though it may have required a microscope to see the traits that stand out, they’re now evident.
His upside is tantalizing, so much so that it warrants a top-5 pick.
I’m all in on the former Wolverine.
McCarthy’s stock has risen mightily throughout the draft process. Watching film over and over again is where you’ll see if prospects can be good in the NFL — and that’s what you needed to do with him. But also, events like the NFL Combine and Michigan’s pro day have benefited him.
One scout in attendance at Michigan’s pro day had this to say about his showing, according to Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer: “His pro day was ridiculous. He’s a super athlete, a really efficient thrower.”
Though people are becoming aware of what McCarthy can do, some people are still floored he’s in contention to be a top-5 NFL draft pick. And yes, pro days aren’t the be-all and end-all of the evaluation process, but they certainly help contingents get a live, in-person look at a player.
In all fairness, I understand the doubts about McCarthy — or at least I did. First, he doesn’t have the production other top QBs have. Second, he has one good year of tape, his 2023 season.
McCarthy ended 2022 with 2,719 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with a 64.6% completion rate. They’re not bad stats by any means. In fact, they’re quite similar to his 2023 stats — 2,991 yards, 22 TDs and 4 INTs with a 72.3% completion rate. But McCarthy looked much better in 2023. Everything looked cleaner. His mechanics, accuracy and ability to drive the ball all improved drastically.
Still, McCarthy’s evaluation was a difficult one. It’s tough to discern as much as you can from a QB with limited dropbacks. Former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh’s offensive philosophy is the ground-and-pound approach — complete smashmouth football. The Wolverines’ offense averaged 24.3 pass attempts per game compared to its 37.5 rush attempts. But when you have the duo of Blake Corum, another highly-touted NFL draft prospect, and Donovan Edwards, a 2025 NFL Draft prospect, you can do that.
Nevertheless, despite the small sample size, I came away enamored with McCarthy’s game.
What I liked in McCarthy’s enigmatic evaluation
His ability to throw into tight spaces stands out. In the NFL, gaps close quickly and you need to be able to throw accurate, powerful passes. His wide base allows for not only accuracy and consistency but plenty of zip to drive the ball into the space.
Take a look at McCarthy's 22-yard touchdown pass to Roman Wilson vs. Ohio State in 2023.
His throw against OSU was probably the best of the college football season. McCarthy flashes poise and anticipation as he bounces around the pocket. When he sees Wilson crossing the middle of the field — with a defender trailing his right hip and another with his back turned closing in from the opposite side — McCarthy fits the ball into the roughly three-foot window.
When the pocket collapses, throws on the run aren’t difficult for McCarthy. While he’s best when scrambling to his right side, he can make the cross-body throws you see at the NFL level.
See McCarthy’s 16-yard TD to Wilson vs. Nebraska this year.
In this play, he showcases his athleticism and arm strength. As the play breaks down, McCarthy runs to his left with his eyes downfield. As he approaches the sideline, he sees Wilson in the back of the endzone, so he torques his body slightly to the right while moving left and throws a strike for a touchdown.
This type of throw is hard. It requires you to move your body unnaturally. McCarthy seemingly had no issue.
Here’s another TD throw on the run.
Here, the pocket breaks down, McCarthy bounces out to the right, climbs the open space and fires on the run. This play is one of many that impressed me. His navigation of the pocket and movement ability help him mitigate sacks and exhaust the down, giving his receivers more time to get open. His career sack rate is 4.3%, third among this class’ quarterbacks.
On top of all that, McCarthy is willing to stand strong in the pocket. Often, college QBs, especially younger ones like McCarthy, who’s 21 years old, panic under pressure. McCarthy’s situational awareness and toughness stand out in this sense.
Watch McCarthy take a hard hit to complete a 4-yard pass.
This play isn’t complex, but it showcases his composure. McCarthy knew he was about to get hit hard, but he waited until the receiver created just enough separation so he could deliver an accurate ball.
Here’s another: McCarthy completes a short pass before getting destroyed by Penn State’s Chop Robinson.
These are just some plays that stood out to me.
Now, onto some numbers.
McCarthy was absurdly good on third downs, specifically downs 3rd and 7+. According to a chart created by Nicholas Miller of The Viking Age, he had a 73% completion rate, with an average depth of target of 11.1. So, not only was he converting a first down on 3rd and longs often, but most of the time he was throwing beyond the sticks. That’s impressive.
To add to that, PFF charted McCarthy with the highest completion percentage while scrambling (71.4%) among this year’s class. In a draft headlined by USC’s Caleb Williams and LSU’s Jayden Daniels, two Heisman Trophy winners who excel on the move, McCarthy leading that category is surprising but impressive. For context, former Oregon’s Bo Nix was second behind McCarthy with 58.6%.
The bottom line is, despite the lack of attempts Michigan tasked to McCarthy, he was incredibly efficient and productive with his opportunities. He has the arm, he has the traits and he’s a known winner. There’s talk that he won’t be able to start right away, and maybe that’s true. It may be best to sit him for a year, depending on the situation he goes to. But there’s no doubt McCarthy should be a top-5 pick on Thursday night.