Can we let Arch Manning actually play first?

Yes, he looks like the next blue-chip quarterback prospect. But we've only seen flashes in limited time. Let's slow down the hype train for a second.

Arch Manning has thrown 95 passes in college. Two starts. Nine touchdowns. A pair of picks.

That’s the full stat line — a résumé that’s just begun. Yet somehow, he’s already a fixture atop way-too-early 2026 mock drafts. Innately. The surname draws attention. The highlights tantalize. The legend looms.

I get it.

But when you strip away the hype, we still don't really know how good he is. And that, not the buzz, is what’s most interesting.

OK, Manning might be really, really good. That much is fair. He’s shown it — in flashes. He made smart reads, threw with timing and accuracy, showed off his surprising athleticism and speed, and looked in control during his limited playing time. He's not some nepotism beneficiary. He can play. He has elite NFL traits. You get why the buzz exists.

But he needs to play more.

This is where football fans get ahead of themselves. We don’t just love potential anymore — we crown it. We wrap it in projections and declare it ready for the biggest stage before it’s even taken root. Manning is the latest example. The last name. The pedigree. The press. He was anointed before he even picked a college. And now that he’s taken a few meaningful snaps and didn’t trip over himself…He must be him, right?

It’s understandable. The football world loves a good quarterback story, and there’s none more made-for-TV than the young Manning. His last name is the golden ticket. But he, despite all that noise, has taken the slow road, so he hasn’t had a ton of time on the field. He sat his freshman season behind Quinn Ewers with no complaints. He waited. He learned. When Ewers missed time late in the 2023 season, Maalik Murphy was the next man up, not Texas’ heralded savior in waiting.

Then Murphy transferred, Ewers returned, and Manning moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart.

When Ewers missed two games with a torn oblique last season, Manning stepped in and...well, let's be honest about what we saw. His first start against Louisiana-Monroe had some struggles — two interceptions — despite facing below-average competition. It didn’t matter, though. Texas still ended up bludgeoning them 51-3. In his second start against Mississippi State, he looked much better, completing 26 of his 31 passes for 324 yards and two scores. He looked much calmer in the pocket, working through his progressions and showing off his accuracy on short, intermediate, and deep throws. Texas won 35-13. But again, the competition was lackluster, to say the least. So yes, there were flashes in those games, moments where you could see the potential everyone talks about. But two games against subpar competition aren't exactly a definitive résumé for all this NFL draft hype.

So let’s not pretend like we’ve already seen the full picture. The body of work is too small. You need to see more than 95 dropbacks before inserting him into the 2026 No. 1 pick discourse, especially when he has three years of eligibility remaining.

Because even if you want Arch Manning to be the guy — and who doesn’t? — you have to understand the Mannings themselves have never rushed greatness. His uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, stayed for four seasons at Tennessee and Ole Miss before opting to declare for the NFL draft. They didn’t let hype dictate development. They developed before moving on. That patience, that process, is part of the family blueprint.

It should be for Arch, too.

We’ll see more of Manning this fall, as he’s now locked in as Texas’ starter. We’ll see how he handles pressure and what happens when SEC defenses throw disguises at him that he's never seen on film. You don't find that out in spring games. You find that out when you're down seven with two minutes left, and 90,000 people are screaming for your head.

There’s a version of this story where he becomes everything he’s projected to be — a franchise quarterback, a Manning who charts his own path to stardom, maybe even becoming the best one yet. I hope so. I hope he has a great career. But right now, he’s still becoming. He’s still inexperienced.

That’s the part we should focus on right now.

Not the draft slot that may be one, two, or three years away. The actual growth. The in-game reps. Because that’s what’s missing right now — volume. To accurately project, you need data. A lot more of it than he currently has.

So let’s cool it for a moment. Yes, Manning looks like he could be special, and we’re all excited to see more from him. But until we see it, the early NFL projections are merely guesswork.