2024 NFL mock draft 1.0: 4 quarterbacks go in the first 6 picks
Welcome to my Substack, On the Clock. It’s finally draft season.
It’s already been draft season for most, but you really begin to feel it post-Super Bowl.
This is a first-round-only mock draft with no trades. Without any further delay, let’s jump right in. Enjoy.
Chicago Bears (VIA CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
This pick should be a no-brainer from a financial standpoint. I also believe Williams is much more talented than Justin Fields. Here, the Bears start fresh and assumingly trade Fields for additional draft compensation.
I expect newly-minted general manager Adam Peters to attempt to pry the No. 1 pick away from Chicago for Williams — who is from Washington, D.C. — but it may take an arm and a leg. So, they decide to go with Daniels, the breakout star from Baton Rouge. Daniels burst onto the scene with 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns through the air on a 72.2 completion percentage, adding 1,134 yards and 10 more scores on the ground, culminating in the Heisman trophy.
Here. We. Go. The NFL seems to be much higher on McCarthy than the media. He’s able to make every throw on the field, he’s exceptional throwing on the run and he’s a tremendous athlete. I believe teams will fall in love with his raw arm talent. He also just turned 21 years old in January.
This pick doesn’t need much explanation. Harrison is the top WR prospect in the class and maybe the top overall player in the class.
Bowers wouldn’t have been the pick here a couple of weeks ago. But with the team’s recent hires in head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman, who both love tight ends in their offensive, Bowers seems a likely option.
It will be a shock if Maye falls to here, but if he does, they should sprint the card in with his name on it. He had a down year last season, but he’s a great prospect. He’s the prototype. At 6-foot-4, 229 pounds, the former Tar Heel has a strong arm and has drawn ceiling comparisons to Josh Allen.
Alt is a polished, NFL-ready tackle that will bolster the Titans’ abysmal offensive line. They could move Andre Dillard to the right side, and their back-to-back first-round picks man the left side for years to come.
Atlanta Falcons: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
The Falcons need help in the pass rush, but outside of Drake London and Kyle Pitts, there are no reliable receiving options. If Atlanta can pull off a trade for Justin Fields or sign Kirk Cousins, drafting Nabers would solidify the Falcons as one of the most explosive offenses in football.
I like Odunze just a little bit more than Nabers. He’s silky smooth. His route running and contested catch ability, paired with the explosiveness of DJ Moore, will be monumental for Williams’ development.
The Jets’ priority should be protecting Aaron Rodgers. Fashanu is the best pass-protector in the draft. He needs to develop as a run blocker, but this would be a home run pick for the Jets.
Minnesota Vikings: Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama
The first defensive player to come off the board is the Crimson Tide edge rusher. This draft choice is dependent on Kirk Cousins’ looming free agency decision. If he returns to Minnesota, I think they’ll decide to bolster their pass rush, which could soon be decimated with Danielle Hunter scheduled to test free agency.
The question at this pick is, does the front office like Bo Nix enough to go QB here? The answer: we don’t know. But if they don’t, pairing Patrick Surtain II with Arnold would create a formidable duo in the secondary.
Fuaga is a mauler who could see himself in play for teams in the top 10. Here, he falls to the Raiders, a team that loves to build through the trenches.
I thought about Nix here, but I think teams will be split on him. Verse is a bulldozer with heavy hands and will help an immediate need. Cam Jordan’s contract is also expiring.
The Colts need some defensive help. Mitchell, who was a standout at the Senior Bowl, would be an immediate starter across from Julius Brents. His stock will only go up after the combine, which I anticipate him running a sub-4.4 40-yard dash.
The Seahawks decide to keep Fautanu in town. The former Huskie started at left tackle for Washington, but he’s capable of moving along the line.
Murphy is no finished product, but you’re betting on the potential with this pick. He’s a 6-foot-1, 308-pounder that’s disruptive in the passing game. The Jaguars didn’t have a DT or edge rusher in the top 20 in ESPN’s win rate rankings.
Latham falling to the Bengals should be a major win in their eyes. For a team that has lacked a truly dominant tackle, he could be just that. He’s a forceful blocker that has a strong base and anchor.
The Rams’ secondary was dreadful. Wiggins is fast, fluid and can seamlessly flip his hips. I expect him to put on a show at the combine.
I thought about pairing Amarius Mims with his old teammate, Broderick Jones, but I love Guyton’s potential. He’s raw, but he has All-Pro potential.
Miami’s offensive line struggled against strong fronts at times. Powers-Johsnon, one of the big winners from the Senior Bowl, is a brick wall on the interior. His senior year tape is outstanding, and his one-on-one reps in Mobile, Ala., supported that.
DeJean is a zone coverage cornerback with 7 career interceptions, 3 of which were returned for touchdowns. There’s chatter about moving him to safety because he’s at his best in zone coverage. I think he could excel at both positions. He’s extremely athletic (see his high school basketball highlights), a willing run defender and possibly the best tackler among the defensive backs in the class. DeJean also had 241 punt return yards and a punt return touchdown.
Houston Texans (VIA CLE): Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
Thomas is a field stretcher. With Nico Collins and Tank Dell bursting onto the scene, adding Thomas would make the Texans’ offense extremely dynamic.
Mims is a behemoth of a man at 6-foot-7, 340 pounds. He has limited playing time at Georgia, starting in only eight games, but he has all the intangibles to be a Pro-Bowl-caliber tackle.
Green Bay Packers: Graham Barton, OL, Duke
Barton isn’t a sexy pick, but he’s a good pick. He played left tackle for the last three seasons at Duke but began his collegiate career as a center. Wherever Green Bay lines him up, he fills a need.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA
Latu, 23 years old, transferred from Washington to UCLA when he was cleared to play following him medically retiring due to a severe neck injury. As a Bruin, he rejuvenated his career, accumulating 13 sacks in 2023 and solidifying himself as one of the best pass rushers in the class.
Arizona Cardinals (VIA HOU): Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Rakestraw Jr. is as physical and tough as they come. When in press coverage, receivers get stuck in quicksand. He’s a willing tackler, rangy and fluid. I would like to see him convert more pass breakups into interceptions — he had just 1 in four years.
With Gabe Davis set to be a free agent, the Bills need to seek a replacement. Coleman is the best 50/50 ball catcher in the draft, but his long speed is a question mark. However, I think a team will fall in love with his contested catch ability. Coleman is a great fit in Buffalo.
The CB run continues. The Lions need every bit of help in the secondary. McKinstry is a smooth cornerback that excels in press coverage. He was also starter at Alabama since his freshman year — something that is not easily attainable under Nick Saban.
Robinson is a former DT who transitioned to edge this past season. He’s big for the position (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) and uses that size and strength to beat defenders with a strong push-and-pull move. He beat Guyton with this move in Mobile, Ala., at the Senior Bowl.
The 49ers could unlock the pass rush with the addition of Robinson, a quick-twitched and explosive edge rusher. Chase Young is also set to hit the open market.
The primary goal for Kansas City in the offseason should be evident: get Patrick Mahomes receivers. Rashee Rice was great this past season, but their only reliable options cannot be just him and Travis Kelce.
Is JJ McCarthy the most overrated qb in the draft? Shined in Michigan’s dominant run system. Not impressive downfield and locks onto single receivers in games. If he can’t make the change could we see another good not great?