<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Hail Mary: Opinions]]></title><description><![CDATA[Thoughts about draft-related topics.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/s/opinions</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png</url><title>Hail Mary: Opinions</title><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/s/opinions</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sun, 12 Apr 2026 14:15:04 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.gavinriley.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[2025 NFL Draft: My 3 favorite picks in every round]]></title><description><![CDATA[The 2025 NFL Draft is in the history books.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2025 12:05:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" width="1242" height="828" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:828,&quot;width&quot;:1242,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide" title="Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The 2025 NFL Draft is in the history books. </p><p>What a fantastic weekend it was. Draft watchers saw it all: aggressive trades, surprising slides, and exceptional value picks. </p><p>After a few days to digest all of the selections, I wanted to share the three picks I liked the most from each of the seven rounds. These are based on value and fit, so not necessarily the best players, but the best <em>picks</em>. </p><p>Let&#8217;s start with James Gladstone&#8217;s epic first trade of his general manager tenure. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Subscribe!</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h2>Round 1</h2><h3>Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 2) </h3><p>The Jaguars stunned everyone by jumping up to No. 2 and swinging big on perhaps the most versatile talent in the draft. Hunter is an electric playmaker on both sides of the ball, and Jacksonville seems intent on letting him continue his two-way impact, though they&#8217;ve stated he&#8217;ll be a wide receiver first. He instantly forms one of the NFL&#8217;s best wide receiver duos with Brian Thomas Jr. It&#8217;s rare to see a team bet this boldly on a unicorn, and even rarer when it makes this much sense.</p><h3>Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos (No. 21)</h3><p>Cornerback didn&#8217;t scream need, but the Broncos didn&#8217;t care &#8212; and that&#8217;s exactly the right mindset when you&#8217;re staring down Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year. Barron, the 2024 Jim Thorpe Award winner, can play outside, inside, down in the box, wherever you need him. He&#8217;s a ballhawk who wore multiple hats at Texas. On paper, this defense starts to look terrifying. </p><h3>Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 31)</h3><p>This pick falls in line with general manager Howie Roseman scooping up players who fall further than they should. Campbell was perceived by many as a top-15 player in the class, but after injury considerations, specifically the labrum surgery he underwent after the combine, he fell further than expected. The Eagles won&#8217;t need him in Week 1, so they felt comfortable taking the risk. The eventual pairing of him and Zack Baun will be scary.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 2</h2><h3>Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Dallas Cowboys (No. 44)</h3><p>I thought Ezeiruaku would go in the first round. He&#8217;s a smooth, long, instinctive pass rusher who finished second in the FBS in sacks (16.5) and first in pressures (60). Dallas needed more juice up front, and Ezeiruaku should thrive with attention drawn to Micah Parsons.</p><h3>Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals (No. 47)</h3><p>Concerns about Johnson&#8217;s knee knocked him out of the top-20 conversation, but this was still a blue-chip cornerback talent when healthy. He has great size, awareness, and ball skills. Arizona made a smart bet on upside at a position of need. </p><h3>Trey Amos, CB, Washington Commanders (No. 61)</h3><p>Amos didn&#8217;t get the same attention as some other corners in this class, but his combination of length and movement skills flashed throughout the pre-draft process. He could push for playing time right away in a Washington secondary that lacks depth.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 3</h2><h3>Darius Alexander, DT, New York Giants (No. 65)</h3><p>The Giants used their first pick on Abdul Carter, the ferocious pass-rusher from Penn State who&#8217;ll pair nicely with Brian Burns. Here, they continue to bolster their defensive line even more. A riser through the pre-draft cycle, Alexander adds size, explosiveness, and interior pass-rush potential to a Giants front that needed more juice alongside Dexter Lawrence. This was a strong value in the early third.</p><h3>Xavier Watts, S, Atlanta Falcons (No. 96)</h3><p>Watts was my favorite value of the entire Falcons&#8217; class. He led the FBS in interceptions (13) over the past two seasons and brings elite instincts and range on the back end. A true &#8220;ball magnet&#8221; with great vision and feel.</p><h3>Charles Grant, OT, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 99)</h3><p>Reports echoed that the Raiders may go offensive tackle at No. 6, but when Jeanty was there, he was the obvious choice. Grant was a top-50 player on my board due to his upside. Here, Grant is value paired with upside. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 4</h2><h3>Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants (No. 105)</h3><p>One of the most enjoyable watches in this class, Skattebo runs like a hammer with contact balance and violent urgency. He became the first FBS player since Christian McCaffrey (2015) to surpass 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a season. This is a great pairing with Tyrone Tracy Jr.</p><h3>Jack Kiser, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 107)</h3><p>Kiser was the heart of the Notre Dame defense &#8212; a rangy linebacker with great feel and high-end special-teams potential. He should be an instant contributor in Jacksonville&#8217;s third phase and could grow into a larger role defensively.</p><h3>Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (No. 136)</h3><p>Of the three pass catchers Tennessee added for No. 1 pick Cam Ward on Saturday, Ayomanor was my favorite. Expected to go much higher, he fell to the end of the fourth round, and the Titans got themselves a steal. He has a great combination of size and speed. With an unappealing wide receiver room, Ayomanor should see the field early.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 5</h2><h3>Shedeur Sanders, QB, Cleveland Browns (No. 144)</h3><p>This shouldn&#8217;t surprise anyone. I think the entire country thought Sanders would go first or second round. There&#8217;s a real chance &#8212; if given a fair opportunity &#8212; he earns the No. 2 spot on the depth chart before Week 1 and is starting by November. The Browns have a lottery ticket in Sanders.</p><h3>Bradyn Swinson, Edge, New England Patriots (No. 146)</h3><p>Swinson didn&#8217;t dominate headlines, but he&#8217;s the kind of long, bendy edge rusher who usually doesn&#8217;t last this deep into Day 3. He&#8217;s a productive pass rusher who had 8.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season. For a team reshaping its front seven, this is the kind of smart, forward-thinking bet that makes draft classes sing in hindsight.</p><h3>Marcus Mbow, OL, New York Giants (No. 154)</h3><p>Simply put, the Giants crushed it. Mbow in the fifth is an absolute steal. Giants GM Joe Schoen admitted he thought he&#8217;d have to choose between Skattebo and Mbow at pick No. 105. He ended up getting both &#8212; and that&#8217;s how you win the draft. Mbow is a nasty, heavy-handed right tackle who plays with grown-man strength and brings real starter traits. The Giants landed a player they genuinely valued a round or two earlier. That&#8217;s value, plain and simple.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 6</h2><h3>Will Howard, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 185)</h3><p>With the quarterback position still in question, Pittsburgh gets an experienced college starter with a big arm and good size. Howard has shown he can handle a pro-style system and offers value as a backup with long-term upside.</p><h3>Cameron Williams, OT, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 207)</h3><p>Williams was once projected to be a first-round pick during the 2024 season, but his stock dropped after his inexperience showed up in Texas&#8217; playoff run. Just a one-year starter for the Longhorns, Williams is definitely raw but enormous, with a wingspan that engulfs edge rushers. Still just 21, he&#8217;ll get to develop under Jeff Stoutland, which has been a launching pad for many late-round linemen before him.</p><h3>Tommy Mellott, QB/WR, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 213)</h3><p>A two-for-one special, Mellott, the dynamic former Montana State quarterback, is expected to move to wide receiver. He&#8217;s an explosive runner with real after-the-catch ability. Las Vegas might&#8217;ve found a creative offensive weapon in the late rounds.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 7</h2><h3>Jay Toia, DT, Dallas Cowboys (No. 217)</h3><p>Toia is a stout, powerful interior defender who can eat double teams and muddy up run lanes. He adds early-down toughness to a Cowboys front that needed more beef inside, because Mazi Smith has been underwhelming in his first two seasons. And in a division with Saquon Barkley, finding a guy who can simply stick his feet in the dirt and not get moved off the line of scrimmage in the run game is a must.</p><h3>Dan Jackson, S, Detoit Lions (No. 230)</h3><p>A steady presence on the back end, Jackson brings leadership and instincts from his time at Georgia. Detroit loves these types &#8212; high IQ, no-nonsense defenders who can help on teams and spot duty right away.</p><h3>Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears (No. 233)</h3><p>Monangai quietly had one of the best seasons in the Big Ten, leading the conference in rushing. He&#8217;s compact, tough, and seeks out contact in pass protection. He&#8217;ll play the David Montgomery role in Ben Johnson&#8217;s offense.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[5 ‘My Guys’ for the 2025 NFL Draft]]></title><description><![CDATA[Read why I like these prospects, along with mini scouting reports, pro comparisons, and draft projections.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/5-my-guys-for-the-2025-nfl-draft</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/5-my-guys-for-the-2025-nfl-draft</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 23 Jan 2025 23:25:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!Ld4w!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd4a33d81-5443-48cd-80c1-ecb05b7b6cfd_1280x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Rick Kimball/ISD</figcaption></figure></div><p>The 2025 NFL Draft is looming. College football is over, and the NFL season is winding down. The draft&#8217;s all-star circuit is a week away. Because of this, I&#8217;ve started my deep dive into the Rolodex of prospects.</p><p>Frankly, it&#8217;s not an overly exciting class. But many players stand out, and I&#8217;ve found five I&#8217;d like to fondly label as &#8220;my guys.&#8221; </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">On the Clock is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2>Mike Green, Edge, Marshall</h2><p>At 6-foot-4, 248 pounds, Green is an undersized yet disruptive, high-motor edge rusher. When rushing the passer, he sets up his pass-rush moves &#8212; arm-over swim move, swipe-rip, and spin, being his most effective &#8212; with precision, and he pairs those with elite bend and an explosive first step. </p><p>After leading the FBS in sacks this past season with 17, Green&#8217;s choice to leave the Thundering Herd after a stellar redshirt sophomore season seems to be the right one. He was a dominant defensive force all season long, leading all players nationally with 23 tackles behind the line of scrimmage, his 17 sacks included. He amassed 84 total tackles while forcing three fumbles, breaking up two passes, and recovering one fumble. His impressive exploits paved the path for Marshall to capture the Sun Belt Conference title.</p><p>Unequivocally, there will be questions about his size and relative competition level &#8212; save for his impressive performance against Ohio State, in which he logged a sack &#8212; but he has the ingredients to continue his disruption in the NFL. </p><p><strong>Pro Comp: Haason Reddick</strong></p><p><strong>Draft Projection: Middle of the First Round</strong></p><h2>Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State</h2><p>After a season where he rushed for 1,711 yards and 21 touchdowns on 293 carries, leading ASU to the College Football Playoff, Skattebo became a household name. Yet despite being one of the most impressive players in the nation, doubts remain about his effectiveness in the NFL.</p><p>Sure, he won&#8217;t run the fastest 40-yard dash. But he doesn&#8217;t need to. Skattebo can make a defender miss in a phonebooth with his tackle-breaking mindset, that &#8216;run through a motherf&#8212;er&#8217;s face' mentality he displayed countless times this season. He has exceptional contact balance and lower body strength when running between the tackles. </p><p>In one of the deepest RB draft classes in recent memory, Skattebo&#8217;s draft projection is puzzling. My gut says late day two. I believe many teams will see him as a complementary back because of his lack of top-end speed. Don&#8217;t get it twisted, though &#8212; he&#8217;s more than capable of being a workhouse back due to his build and ferocity while running the football. </p><p><strong>Pro Comp: Marshawn Lynch</strong></p><p><strong>Draft Projection: Late Third Round</strong></p><h2>Armand Membou, OT, Missouri</h2><p>Membou is straight-up nasty in the trenches. He&#8217;s been a quick riser throughout the draft process.</p><p>The 6-foot-3, 325-pounder works well on an island, effortlessly gliding with fluidity. He&#8217;s able to widen the corner with his speed and length to cut off wide-aligned high-side rushers. Despite an unorthodox build, he has a rock-solid anchor, and he has quick, violent hands with adequate strike timing that shut down edge rushers at the point of attack. His grip strength is equally impressive. When locks onto smaller rushers, they seemingly get caught in quicksand, both in the passing game and run game. In 2024, he allowed zero sacks and nine pressures in 410 pass-block snaps.</p><p>Membou will be just 21 on draft night, yet he possesses the physical demeanor, pass-protection skills, and agile movement to become a year-one starter. </p><p><strong>Pro Comp: Duane Brown</strong></p><p><strong>Draft Projection: Middle of the First Round</strong></p><h2>Xavier Watts, DB, Notre Dame</h2><p>Notre Dame&#8217;s defense was incredibly impressive this past season, ranking first in the country in pass efficiency and completion percentage. Leading that charge was Watts, a one-year captain who was tasked to wear multiple hats for the Fighting Irish defense.</p><p>Watts excelled in the man/zone slot and nickel safety role, though when he was asked to play center field, he was great at that, too. Part of the reason why his final season in South Bend was nothing short of spectacular, as he led the FBS in interceptions with seven and spearheaded the Irish defense to the National Championship. In 2023, he was awarded the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, presented annually to the country&#8217;s best defensive player.</p><p>Watts, 6 foot, 203 pounds, plays with an extremely high motor. His intensity is evident in every snap. He has a quick stop-and-go transition off his pedal and incredible instincts and route recognition. He&#8217;s the best ballhawk in the draft while being an absolute eraser in the run game.</p><p><strong>Pro Comp: Justin Simmons</strong></p><p><strong>Draft Projection: Second Round</strong></p><h2>Xavier Restrepo, WR, Miami</h2><p>From a school that produced NFL greats Michael Irvin, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Santana Moss, Restrepo is Miami's all-time leading receiver. He'll be remembered among Miami's greatest pass-catchers when discussing the record books, albeit rather differently. All of those players were X receivers, and, despite coining the nickname X &#8212; due to his first name and him being a complete X-factor for the Hurricane offense &#8212; Restrepo is an undersized slot receiver. That&#8217;s where his home will be in the NFL.</p><p>Restrepo is as crafty as they come. He consistently finds soft spots in zone coverage with his savvy route-running ability. His reliable hands and competitive toughness in traffic make him a quarterback's best friend, particularly on crucial third downs, where he tends to have a sixth sense for the sticks. While lacking elite top-end speed, he compensates with pristine technique and a warrior mentality that makes him play bigger than his 5'10" frame would suggest.</p><p><strong>Pro Comp: Amon-Ra St. Brown</strong></p><p><strong>Draft Projection: Late-Second, Early Third Round</strong></p><p>These five prospects, I expect, will raise their stock throughout the draft process, starting with the 2025 Reese&#8217;s Senior Bowl, in which all of them will be participating.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/5-my-guys-for-the-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/5-my-guys-for-the-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Riley: Drew Allar should enter the 2025 NFL Draft]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Penn State junior announced he intends to return to school, but his recent stretch of games has been catching the eyes of NFL scouts.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/riley-drew-allar-should-enter-the</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/riley-drew-allar-should-enter-the</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 08 Jan 2025 17:36:12 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Each day we inch closer to the 2025 NFL Draft, the discourse surrounding the quarterback class, headlined by Cam Ward (Miami) and Shedeur Sanders (Colorado), is diminishing. Those two are widely regarded as the draft&#8217;s top two signal callers. After that, it&#8217;s murky waters.</p><p>Penn State&#8217;s Drew Allar could provide some clarity to an enigmatic class if he were to declare. </p><p>I have been advocating for Allar's return to school all season long. It seemed to be the best thing for his development, and it still may be.</p><p>But I&#8217;ve changed my stance.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">On the Clock is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Since Penn State&#8217;s loss to Ohio State, Allar has looked more pro-ready than ever, albeit still raw. Contradicting, yes, but the two can exist simultaneously. His passing looks refined, and he seems more comfortable playing the position against the nation&#8217;s top programs. His composure has improved immensely. Those were all quite evident in his most recent performance, where the junior tossed 171 yards and three touchdowns in Penn State&#8217;s 31-14 victory over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. Quarterback traits the NFL drool over were on full display in his dominant outing: size (6-foot-5, 236 pounds), strong arm, and touch.</p><p>Allar&#8217;s first touchdown of the game to standout TE Tyler Warren was sheer beauty.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;46c6a015-d63c-406b-8e3e-83598fc64500&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>He comes with weaknesses, though, like all the quarterbacks in this class. His anticipation, processing, and decision-making need improvement. But his size and arm strength are unteachable traits. Rare qualities, in fact. He reminds me of Josh Allen coming out of college &#8212; very raw but has the makings of an above-average starter. </p><p>Now, look at Allen. He&#8217;s taken the NFL by storm. </p><p>Despite announcing his intention to return to Penn State in 2025, NFL teams are preparing for Allar to change his mind. <em>The Athletic&#8217;s </em>Dane Brugler posted this to social media: &#8220;There are several NFL GMs who believe Allar could enter the 2025 NFL Draft with a strong playoff run. Teams are still heavily scouting him for the 2025 class.&#8221;</p><p>Atop of the draft are three QB-needy teams back-to-back-to-back: the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants; that order is set in stone. Other QB-needy teams within the top 10 are Las Vegas, NYJ, and New Orleans. </p><p>As mentioned above, QB3 in this class is unbeknownst. A team won&#8217;t reach on a quarterback just because it&#8217;s a need &#8212; even if it is a catastrophic one, in those teams&#8217; cases &#8212; but there is a belief teams value Allar similarly to Ward and Sanders, who are projected top-three picks.</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Spoke with a front office source regarding Penn State QB Drew Allar and he said Allar is a guy that the thinks much more highly of than fans and the media do. Scouts rave about his size, arm, and ability to &#8216;manipulate the pocket,&#8217;&#8221; stated a report from uStadium.</p></blockquote><p>Allar is nowhere near the perfect prospect, hence his decision to return. But his garnering attention, even after announcing his decision, speaks volumes. He could catapult his stock even more with an impressive offseason, during which scouts can get an on-field, up-close look during the senior bowl, his pro day, and the combine.</p><p>Allar&#8217;s situation is reminiscent of Cardale Jones&#8217;. Jones, having only started three games in three seasons at Ohio State, forewent entering the 2015 NFL Draft to return for his senior season despite being a prospect multiple teams coveted.</p><p>"Maybe he would have gone in the second round," a source told foxsports.com back in 2015, &#8220;but I think it&#8217;s just as likely he could have gone in the top 10 or 15. Look at that body (6-foot-5, 250 pounds), that arm &#8212; and look at his competition (in the draft).</p><p>Jones struggled the next season and was drafted in the fourth round, pick 139, of the 2016 NFL Draft. </p><p>It was roughly a $4 million gamble that didn&#8217;t pay off.</p><p>Ten years later, Allar is faced with a similar decision.</p><p>If he decides to come out with the 2026 class, he finds himself in a highly-regarded class consisting of:</p><ul><li><p>Arch Manning, Texas</p></li><li><p>Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee</p></li><li><p>Lanorris Sellers, South Carolina</p></li><li><p>Garrett Nussmeier, LSU</p></li><li><p>Jalon Daniels, Kansas</p></li></ul><p>The &#8216;26 class projects to be much better than this year&#8217;s. That could hurt Allar&#8217;s stock with a substandard season.</p><p>He has a chance to separate himself in this year&#8217;s class, especially with a good performance against a formidable Notre Dame defense, which ranks first in the country in pass efficiency and completion percentage, in the Orange Bowl.</p><p>Allar could likely go in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft if he decides to declare. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/riley-drew-allar-should-enter-the?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/riley-drew-allar-should-enter-the?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[College Football Playoff 2024: Why Ashton Jeanty deserves Heisman, plus playoff predictions and impactful players]]></title><description><![CDATA[Realistically, the Heisman Trophy race is between two players, despite four being nominated for the award.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/college-football-playoff-2024-why</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/college-football-playoff-2024-why</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 14 Dec 2024 14:12:51 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p></p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png" width="330" height="193" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/c746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:193,&quot;width&quot;:330,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;File:2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Logo.png&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="File:2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Logo.png" title="File:2025 College Football Playoff National Championship Logo.png" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!QDZA!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc746611e-c765-4d61-9e92-ef9adef6cb12_330x193.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Realistically, the Heisman Trophy race is between two players, despite four being nominated for the award. Sorry, Dillon Gabriel and Cam Ward, but it&#8217;s apparent one of Travis Hunter or Ashton Jeanty will hear their name called, cementing themselves in the most prestigious Rolodex college football has to offer. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/college-football-playoff-2024-why?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/college-football-playoff-2024-why?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p>They&#8217;re two great players with two great cases. </p><p>Hunter, regarded as the best overall player in college football and a likely top-5 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, does it all. A WR/CB from Colorado, and the winner of the Biletnikoff Award (college football&#8217;s most outstanding receiver) and the Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year), Hunter amassed 1,380 total snaps this season, including 670 on offense, 686 on defense, and 24 on special teams. Football hasn&#8217;t seen someone of his caliber in quite some time. In fact, Chuck Bednarik is considered the last NFL player to play both offense and defense &#8212; from 1949 to 1962, Bednarik played center and linebacker for the Philadelphia Eagles. </p><p>Jeanty, Boise State&#8217;s RB and the winner of the Maxwell Award (Player of the Year), was simply, utterly unstoppable all season long. Before the season, he predicted his breakout: <a href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/ashton-jeanty-took-an-unconventional">He said he&#8217;d rush for 2,000 yards</a>. Jeanty smashed that prediction with 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns on 344 rushes. It doesn&#8217;t matter how many teams game-planned for him; he still couldn&#8217;t be stopped. </p><h2>Ashton Jeanty deserves the Heisman Trophy</h2><p>The Heisman Trophy has largely evolved into an award dominated by quarterbacks. Since 2019, four of the last five recipients have been quarterbacks, with DeVonta Smith standing out as the lone exception after delivering a historic season in 2020. </p><p>This year marks a shift &#8212; a positive one. Essentially, the Heisman Trophy is meant to honor the most outstanding player in college football, regardless of their position. A player who was consistently the best player on the field <em>and </em>paved the path for their team to play in the post-season. </p><p>That&#8217;s Jeanty. Despite routinely facing 8-man boxes, he was uncontainable. He didn&#8217;t have any 30-something-yard games. No dud performances. He strictly shredded defenses, week in and week out.</p><p>If you&#8217;ve watched Boise State this season then you&#8217;d know it would not be in the College Football Playoff without Jeanty in the backfield. Each week, he astonished adoring crowds with his ability to effortlessly take any handoff to the house. His explosive play-making ability is the reason the Broncos were must-watch TV this season.</p><p>As the country watched Jeanty chase Barry Sanders&#8217; all-time record &#8212; he needs just 131 yards to do so &#8212; he established himself as a powerhouse all season long. He earned recognition as the Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week multiple times, set school numerous records and habitually made highlight plays.  </p><p>Derrick Henry was the last RB to win the Heisman Trophy, which happened in 2015. The former Crimson Tide rushed for 2,219 and 28 TDs on 395 carries. Jeanty out-produced Henry in every category with 51 fewer carries. He also averaged 7.3 yards per carry to Henry&#8217;s 5.6.</p><p>Jeanty wasn&#8217;t facing SEC competition as Henry did. Though, it&#8217;s also important to mention that when Jeanty did play a team of that caliber, he was the same-old Jeanty. </p><p>In Boise State&#8217;s narrow 37-34 loss to the currently unbeaten Oregon Ducks, Jeanty had 25 carries for 192 yards and three touchdowns, including a 70-yard touchdown.</p><p>In any other year, Jeanty would be the runaway favorite. But the current prognosis is that Hunter will be the victor. His two-way stardom is rare. It&#8217;s fresh. It&#8217;s something we may not see again for a while. </p><p>With that said, that doesn&#8217;t mean Hunter deserves college football&#8217;s most coveted award over its most productive, impactful player. </p><p>The winner will be announced tonight, Saturday, December 14 at 8 p.m.</p><div><hr></div><h2>College Football Playoff bracket predictions</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg" width="1152" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:1152,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;College Football Playoff bracket, rankings reveal: Who made the 12-team  field? - Yahoo Sports&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="College Football Playoff bracket, rankings reveal: Who made the 12-team  field? - Yahoo Sports" title="College Football Playoff bracket, rankings reveal: Who made the 12-team  field? - Yahoo Sports" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!505Q!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0414ebb9-577f-4a7b-adea-a8ac164e0641_1152x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Championship weekend was befitting.</p><p>Georgia beat Texas in overtime for the SEC Title. Oregon beat Penn State in a shootout to claim the Big Ten Championship.</p><p>Arizona State and Boise State earned unthinkable yet rightful first-round byes with statement wins in the Big 12 and Mountain West championship games.</p><p>Selection Sunday locked in the bracket. And now, the season&#8217;s culmination is upon us: the 12-team playoff.</p><p>Will Oregon finish perfect this season? Can Ryan Day and James Franklin win in these big-time games? Will Arizona State or Boise State shock the world?</p><p>We&#8217;ll see. But here are my predictions.</p><h3>First round</h3><p>Texas 31, Clemson 21</p><p>Ohio State 24, Tennessee 21</p><p>Penn State 34, SMU 28</p><p>Notre Dame 38, Indiana 21</p><h3>Quarterfinals</h3><p>Texas 28, Arizona State 24</p><p>Oregon 31, Ohio State 27</p><p>Penn State 34, Boise State 31</p><p>Notre Dame 23, Georgia 21</p><h3>Semifinals</h3><p>Oregon 21, Texas 17</p><p>Notre Dame 31, Penn State 28</p><h3>National title game</h3><p>Oregon 27, Notre Dame 24</p><div><hr></div><h2>The 10 most impactful players in the CFB Playoff</h2><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg" width="800" height="533" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:533,&quot;width&quot;:800,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:140115,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ySaw!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F210493e4-59dc-45b4-acf2-70db7ddebe69_800x533.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images</figcaption></figure></div><p>1. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State</p><p>After everything I&#8217;ve said above, is this a surprise to you? Jeanty is the best player in college football, and if Boise State wants a chance to compete, they&#8217;ll have to go to the rightful &#8220;HEI2MAN&#8221; early and often. </p><p>2. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State</p><p>I&#8217;ll just go ahead and say this: Warren is my favorite player in the 2025 draft class. He&#8217;s been a breakout player this season, catching 88 passes for 1,062 yards and six touchdowns. He&#8217;s also scored four times on the ground. </p><p>Penn State lines up Warren all over the field, totaling six positions played this season. He&#8217;s caught, ran, threw, snapped, and even punted the football. He is one of college football&#8217;s most versatile players and a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses.</p><p>3. Cam Skattebo, RB, Arizona State</p><p>Skattebo could&#8217;ve been a Heisman Trophy finalist and I don&#8217;t think many people would have batted an eye. He&#8217;s spearheaded the Sun Devils to a first-round bye. </p><p>On 263 carries, Skattebo totaled 1,568 yards and 19 touchdowns, including 506 receiving and three more touchdowns through the air. He broke out near the end of the season, and the highlights that ensued are jaw-dropping. He&#8217;s merely a freight train when he gets the ball in his hands.</p><p>4. Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oregon</p><p>A Heisman Trophy finalist, Gabriel has put together an incredible season. He came in as a transfer from Oklahoma and has led the Ducks to a Big Ten championship in their first year in the conference. </p><p>With his inclusion, it&#8217;s only right to mention Oregon&#8217;s receivers, who have been incredible all year long. Maybe he&#8217;s a product of them? Or they&#8217;re a product of him? Nevertheless, Dillon has had a reliable left hand all season long.</p><p>5. Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State</p><p>Smith, a true freshman, has already become one of college football&#8217;s best receivers. He&#8217;s scored in nearly every game this season. From a pure talent perspective, Smith is undeniably great.</p><p>6. Kevin Jennings, QB, SMU</p><p>SMU is here for a reason, right? Jennings has been great all year. He&#8217;s not a better player than the other QBs in the playoff, but for his team, he&#8217;s as impactful as they come. He&#8217;s shined since he got his turn in SMU&#8217;s offense, thanks to his dynamic, dual-threat ability. </p><p>7. Abdul Carter, EDGE, Penn State</p><p>When you watch Carter, you&#8217;ll see shades of Micah Parsons, a former Nittany Lion. The #11 Penn State jersey certainly adds to it, but Carter is just as dominant. He&#8217;s been the best player on what&#8217;s regarded as one of college football&#8217;s best defenses. The junior ended his regular season with 60 tackles and 10 sacks.</p><p>8. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame</p><p>Love has been a human highlight reel for the Irish this season. You may have seen his viral hurdle, in which he soared over a USC defender without breaking stride, gaining an extra 20 yards on the play. The sophomore has scored in every game this season and is considered an early candidate for the Heisman Trophy next season.</p><p>9. Dylan Sampson, RB, Tennessee</p><p>Sampson had a record-setting season for Tennesee, leading the SEC in rushing yards (1,485), rushing yards per game (123.8), rushing touchdowns (22), and all-purpose yards (1,620). </p><ol start="10"><li><p>Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson </p></li></ol><p>With 40 all-purpose touchdowns this season, Klubnik has been <em>the</em> key cog in the Clemson offense. Like Jennings, he&#8217;s a dual-threat QB who has grown throughout the season. Although, Klubnik has had some struggles against ranked opponents this season. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Caleb Williams is unique — but he's just what the Bears have been searching for]]></title><description><![CDATA[With unconventional flair, Caleb Williams brings hope to the Chicago Bears' quarterback woes.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/caleb-williams-is-unique-but-hes</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/caleb-williams-is-unique-but-hes</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 31 May 2024 19:51:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp" width="1272" height="843" 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https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!HG4c!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58468d7d-9900-44c7-b3fb-ef0d4e97bf42_1272x843.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Original photo by Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times. Photo edit by Gavin Riley</figcaption></figure></div><p>Caleb Williams isn&#8217;t the spitting image of a franchise quarterback.</p><p>The flamboyant, flair-filled passer paints his nails. Sometimes, specifically for football games. Pink, gold and other colors, logos and numbers &#8212; there aren&#8217;t limitations for what he&#8217;ll paint. Against Notre Dame and Utah, he inscribed &#8220;F&#8212;k ND&#8221; and &#8220;F&#8212;k Utah.&#8221; He stamped the same message for UCLA.</p><p>He posed in a red shirt and skirt that resembled a dress for a GQ photoshoot and he cried in the arms of his mother in the stands following USC&#8217;s 52-42 loss to Washington this past season. </p><p>Williams is much different than previous college quarterbacks entering the NFL. Firstly, he comes from a society that increasingly embraces diversity &#8212; though there is a wealth of drawbacks in Williams&#8217; case &#8212; allowing men to express their femininity without fear of stigma. He also comes from a completely different landscape of college football, spearheaded by NIL (Name, Image, Likeness). The former Trojan reportedly made nearly $10 million in NIL deals. He was a college football celebrity.</p><p>He&#8217;s unlike most prospects.</p><p>His goal isn&#8217;t.</p><p>It&#8217;s to win championships. He&#8217;s chasing immortality. He acknowledged that&#8217;s the only way to achieve it. </p><p>That&#8217;s what the Bears have been lacking.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>A Trojan&#8217;s new quest to lead the Bears&#8217; revival</h2><p>Let&#8217;s go back to his days in Norman, Okla. The play was 4th and 1, Oklahoma&#8217;s ball on its own 46-yard line. The Sooners were leading the Kansas Jayhawks 28-23 with 3:26 left to play in the fourth quarter. Williams &#8212; before he transferred to Southern Cal. after his lone season with Oklahoma in 2021 as a freshman &#8212; takes the shotgun snap and turns to his right. It&#8217;s an inside run. Running back Kennedy Brooks plunges up the middle and spins to his right, bouncing off a block. He&#8217;s then immediately stonewalled by a Kansas defender. It looks like a lost play. But after Brooks backpedals three yards trying to escape the sudden swarm of Jayhawks, Williams rips the ball from Brooks&#8217; clutching tuck and sprints four yards for the first down. Cameras cut to Kanas linebacker Rich Miller Jr., who tackled Williams, and his expression was the same as the adoring crowd&#8217;s.</p><p>Complete disbelief. </p><p>Despite his outlandish nature, it&#8217;s easy to see why the Bears expended the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Williams. Underneath the nail polish, chic attire and Hollywood glam, he&#8217;s a playmaker. He can exhaust any down and he throws a football better than most, spinning it from all sorts of arm angles. He turns garbage into gold with the touch of his manicured hands.</p><p>Williams may not have the All-American, franchise-QB look, but he has franchise-QB intangibles. He exudes confidence and boasts swagger. Those are the types of players that succeed in the NFL. One&#8217;s that <em>know </em>they&#8217;re the best at their respective position.</p><p>Now, he&#8217;s tasked to lead the Bears&#8217; revival, a feat their recent quarterbacks succumbed to.</p><p>In 2017, the Bears traded up from No. 3 to No. 2. They moved up one spot with the San Fransico 49ers in the first round to select North Carolina&#8217;s Mitch Trubisky, passing on the active GOAT, Patrick Mahomes, who was drafted just eight picks later. If you&#8217;re unaware of how Trubisky&#8217;s time in Chicago played out, let me put it this way: He wasn&#8217;t great.</p><p>Fast forward to the 2023 NFL season. Two years after the Bears selected him No. 11 overall in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, trading up nine spots from No. 20 to do so, Justin Fields was ready to prove himself to the believing city of Chicago. He said he&#8217;d be the first QB in Bears history to throw for 4,000 yards. </p><p>He fell 1,438 yards short.  </p><p>For context, Fields missed four games with a dislocated shoulder, but his season pace was still shy of the 4,000 mark.</p><p>The Bears&#8217; last playoff appearance was in 2020, and their last playoff win was in 2011. They now hold the longest playoff-winless streak in the NFC North, a division that ushered two playoff teams last season: the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions.</p><p>In comes the eccentric Williams. Without playing a single snap yet, he&#8217;s a breath of fresh air for Chicago. Somehow, there&#8217;s just a feeling the former Trojan will hit, catalyzing a resurgence the storied franchise hoped it would get with its former first-round quarterbacks.</p><p>The term &#8220;generational&#8221; is used loosely nowadays, but in Williams&#8217; case, he may be the closest thing to it we&#8217;ve seen in a while. He&#8217;s even received comparisons to Kansas City&#8217;s star, Mahomes.</p><blockquote><p>"You don't want to compare somebody to the best player on the planet,&#8221; NFL Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah said, &#8220;But just in terms of how (Williams) kind of plays, with the creativity and a little flair and all the different throws he can make in terms of driving the ball, layering the ball, extending plays, all those things, there are similarities there.&#8221;</p><p>"There's pieces that are similar," Bears GM Ryan Poles said at the NFL combine."Obviously, the one stands out to everyone is just different arm angles. That's a unique trait, not a lot of guys can do that."</p></blockquote><p>Talent paired with passion is typically a recipe for success. Chicago has been searching every nook and cranny for that recipe.</p><p>It seems they finally found it. </p><p>Since being drafted by the Bears, Williams curls his fingers to form the shape of a bear claw at the sight of a camera. He leaves press conferences with a new signature signoff: &#8220;Da Bears!&#8221; Sometimes, he says it with a smile, other times, he says it emotionless. Before scheduled Rookie Minicamp and OTA&#8217;s began, he orchestrated throwing sessions with the Bears&#8217; revamped wide receiver room that now features a trio of DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and No. 9 pick Rome Odunze.</p><p>When asked on draft night why he&#8217;s the right person to change the fate of Chicago, Williams responded with, &#8220;Cause I care.&#8221;</p><p>The Bears believe Williams is the one that will break the cycle. Sure, he&#8217;s unconventional. But he&#8217;s as talented and passionate as they come. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/caleb-williams-is-unique-but-hes?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/caleb-williams-is-unique-but-hes?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Sorry, Michael Penix Jr. The media (and Atlanta) is ruining your moment]]></title><description><![CDATA[Yes, we're still talking about this. He didn't ask to be drafted by the Falcons. He's just trying to enjoy the moment.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/sorry-michael-penix-jr-the-media</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/sorry-michael-penix-jr-the-media</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 16 May 2024 13:01:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It was supposed to be his night. He flashed his fashion with a baby blue suit, an &#8220;MP&#8221; pinned to his lapel and white Prada glasses. He was surrounded by family and friends who shared his enthusiasm. He achieved what only 1.6% of the college pool can do. Yet the crux of his life has been overshadowed by constant negativity circling throughout the media.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>The Atlanta Falcons shocked the world on Thursday, Apr. 25. After signing QB Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract ($100 million guaranteed), they selected Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. No. 8 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft. For Penix Jr., the announcing of his name on the Detroit, Mich., stage was everything he&#8217;d been working toward his whole life. For everyone else, it was considered a head-scratching, utterly unnecessary reach. </p><p>The latter is still being talked about. It's not that he shouldn&#8217;t have been picked in the first round. That was somewhat expected. It&#8217;s that he shouldn&#8217;t have been drafted in <em>that</em> spot by <em>that </em>team.</p><p>&#8220;This could be a disaster,&#8221; NFL Network&#8217;s Daniel Jeremiah said about the pick on <em><a href="https://richeisenshow.com/">The Rich Eisen Show</a></em>.</p><p>&#8220;It makes no sense to me,&#8221; said CBS Sports Columnist Pete Prisco on <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/watch/college-football/video/2024-nfl-draft-grades-falcons-select-michael-penix-jr-no-8-overall/#ttag=04262024_agg_cbssports_HQ_PenixPriscoreaction">HQ</a>, the program&#8217;s streaming network. &#8220;You have Kirk Cousins, you paid Kirk Cousins. &#8220;I don't love this pick for the Falcons. Good player, bad situation. Don't love it."</p><p>The Falcons went all in and seemingly opened a two-to-three-year playoff window with the signing of Cousins, 35 years old, who, not to mention, is coming off of a torn Achilles suffered on Oct. 29 of last year. The aspect of the Penix Jr. pick that does make sense is that Cousins&#8217; deal is essentially a two-year deal, meaning they have an out after the 2025 season. In a nutshell, the former Viking is set to have a cap hit of $25 million in 2024 and $40 million in 2025. His cap hit then balloons on the back end of the deal ($57.5 million in 2026 and 2027), but the dead money decreases ($25 million in dead cap in 2026 and $12.5 million in 2027). Still, it&#8217;s a lot of money the Falcons invested in Cousins. With an investment that grand, you&#8217;d think Atlanta would maximize that window, right? Nope. </p><p>Atlanta is copying the Green Bay Packers&#8217; philosophy. In 2005, the Packers selected Aaron Rodgers at No. 25 in the first round with Brett Favre locked in as the team&#8217;s starting QB. In 2020, they did the same thing, selecting Jordan Love at No. 26 with Rodgers in his prime. Of course, Rodgers went on to win back-to-back MVPs the next two years. Love&#8217;s debut as the team&#8217;s full-time starter was delayed until last season. He led the Packers to the second round of the playoffs and threw for 4,159 yards, 32 TDs and 11 interceptions. The plan &#8212; to have your first-round investment learn from one of the game&#8217;s greats &#8212; worked.</p><p>The thing is, the Falcons situation is much different. Cousins has no equity in Atlanta. No established credit. He&#8217;s done nothing for the city that warrants its support. He&#8217;s been there for a month and a half. Heck, he probably doesn't even know half of his teammates yet. Favre and Rodgers spent 10+ years in Green Bay before their successor was drafted.</p><p>After one bad game, it wouldn&#8217;t surprise me to see fans clamoring for his backup.</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;This isn&#8217;t a relationship that&#8217;s gone south,&#8221; NFL insider Tom Pelissero said. &#8220;This is cheating on your wife on the honeymoon.&#8221; </p></blockquote><p>That&#8217;s certainly one way to put it.</p><p>One of the main benefits of drafting a first-round quarterback is the financial aspect. They play on a cheap four-year deal (plus the fifth-year option if it gets picked up). But by the time Cousins&#8217; contract is up, depending on how long the Falcons stay in it, Penix Jr. will have had little-to-no playing time and will require a contract extension shortly. He&#8217;ll also be 28 years old then.</p><p>The Falcons don&#8217;t care, though.</p><p>They&#8217;ve suffered from abysmal quarterback play since Matt Ryan&#8217;s last good year in 2020. After his departure, a trio of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke were under center. Over that span, Atlanta compiled an uninspiring 14-20 record.</p><p>It&#8217;s at no fault of the talent surrounding the QB. Before the Penix Jr. pick, Atlanta spent three consecutive first-round picks on skill positions &#8212; TE Kyle Pitts at No. 4 overall in 2021, WR Drake London at No. 8 overall in 2022 and RB Bijan Robinson at No. 8 overall in 2023 </p><p>None of this is Penix Jr.&#8217;s fault. </p><p>He didn&#8217;t ask to be drafted by Atlanta or as high as he was. Though, I can bet you he&#8217;s happy, regardless of the situation.</p><p>Penix Jr. burst onto the scene this past season when he led the Washington Huskies to its second College Football Playoff appearance (2016). The lefty gunslinger was outstanding all year, showcasing his velocity and accuracy on the deep ball en route to 4,903 passing yards and 36 touchdowns.</p><p>His talent was never in question. His injury history, on the other hand, was.</p><p>Penix Jr. transferred to Washington in the summer of 2022. He needed a fresh start. He spent four seasons at Indiana and all ended with injuries &#8212; an ACL tear, a right (non-throwing) shoulder injury, a second ACL tear of the same (right) knee and a left shoulder injury. But once he got to Washington, he played 28-straight games.</p><p>Suffice to say, he&#8217;s been through a lot. And that makes him being drafted in the top 10 all the more incredible.</p><p>If you&#8217;re frustrated with the pick of Penix Jr., take it up solely with the Falcons. But he&#8217;s a man &#8212; and a story &#8212; worth admiring.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/sorry-michael-penix-jr-the-media?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/sorry-michael-penix-jr-the-media?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[NFL draft: 3 best picks of each round]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders and Pittsburgh Steelers all dominated this year's draft.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-draft-3-best-picks-of-each-round</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-draft-3-best-picks-of-each-round</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 01 May 2024 13:02:47 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books. What an amazing weekend it was. Six quarterbacks, seven wide receivers and 9 offensive linemen all went in the first round. It was madness.</p><p>I&#8217;ve had a few days to digest each pick that transpired in Detroit, Mich., and I really like some values and fits throughout the entire draft. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><div><hr></div><h2>First round</h2><p><strong>Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears (No. 9)</strong></p><p>Odunze joins No. 1 pick Caleb Williams in a tremendous situation. Odunze is a big, athletic and acrobatic wide receiver with great route running. He has some shades of Keenan Allen in his game, and now he&#8217;ll be able to learn from him in Chicago. </p><p><strong>Dallas Turner, Edge, Minnesota Vikings (No. 17)</strong></p><p>Turner was the heavy favorite to be the first defender selected in the draft. Instead, he was second &#8212; Laiatu Latu went two picks ahead of him to the Indianapolis Colts. The value here is incredible, and the Vikings thought so too. That&#8217;s why they traded up from No. 23 to No. 17, their second trade-up of the first round, to get who many thought was the best pass-rusher in the draft.</p><p><strong>Terrion Arnold, CB, Detroit Lions (No. 24)</strong></p><p>It was shocking that the cornerbacks fell, but the Detroit Lions capitalized on that. For a team that desperately needed help on the outside, they moved up four spots to get the second-best CB in the draft. I also love the fit with Dan Campbell. Detroit is going to love Arnold.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Second round</h2><p><strong>Cooper DeJean, DB, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 40)</strong></p><p>Howie Roseman deserves his flowers &#8212; not only for this pick but for the entire draft. After drafting Quinyon Mitchell 22nd overall in the first round, he wasn&#8217;t deterred from bolstering the team&#8217;s secondary even more with DeJean. Mitchell and DeJean were my top cornerbacks in the draft. This is a home run pick.</p><p><strong>Mike Sainristil, CB, Washington Commanders (No. 50)</strong></p><p>The Commanders are building something special in D.C. On paper, they crushed this year&#8217;s draft. They&#8217;ve focused on adding elite talents and leaders &#8212; and Sainristil is both. He was a two-year captain at Michigan and a key playmaker for the defense. For a team that&#8217;s looking for a new identity, Sainristil will help create one.</p><p><strong>Adonai Mitchell, WR, Indianapolis Colts (No. 52)</strong></p><p>Reports stated that the Colts were looking for speed at WR. Not only did they get that in Mitchell, who ran a 4.34 40-yard dash at the combine, but they got one of the overall better wide receivers at a great value. Mitchell has excellent size and speed and is a natural catcher. </p><div><hr></div><h3>Third round</h3><p><strong>Junior Colson, LB, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 69)</strong></p><p>We knew Jim Harbaugh wouldn&#8217;t leave the draft without someone from Michigan, it was just a matter of <em>when </em>he would take one. Colson falling to the 69th pick is incredible value, and it fills an immediate need for the Chargers. And here&#8217;s the best part: Not only is Colson reunited with his former head coach at Michigan, but he&#8217;ll be playing under his former defensive coordinator, Jesse Minter, who is in the same role. It&#8217;ll be a seamless transition for Colson.</p><p><strong>Christian Haynes, G, Seattle Seahawks (No. 81)</strong></p><p>I thought Haynes could&#8217;ve went in the second round after his dominant performance at the Senior Bowl. For the Seahawks, they&#8217;re getting a pro-ready guard that I think can start right away.</p><p><strong>Payton Wilson, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 98)</strong></p><p>Wilson was my LB1 in this class, so I thought if he went in the second round it would be of value. But at the end of the third round, well, that&#8217;s an outright steal. I&#8217;m aware of his injury history and the fact that he doesn&#8217;t have an ACL in one of his knees. But he played last season under those conditions, and he absolutely balled out. Pittsburgh is getting a good one.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Fourth round</h2><p><strong>Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos (No. 102)</strong></p><p>The Broncos drafted former Oregon Duck Bo Nix as their hopeful franchise QB, so why not pair him with his WR1 in college? Franklin was once considered a first-round pick after the 2023-24 college football season ended, so it was a little shocking to see him still available at the start of day 3. WR was a position of need for the Broncos after trading Jerry Jeudy, and they got the best one available at that spot.</p><p><strong>Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots (No. 110)</strong></p><p>After selecting QB Drake Maye at No. 3 overall, the Patriots made sure to get him some weapons. Baker was highly underrated throughout the draft process. He flashed on tape. He&#8217;s a great route runner with outstanding ball-tracking ability, allowing him to create big plays downfield frequently. </p><p><strong> Mason McCormick, G, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 119)</strong></p><p>The Steelers revamped their offensive line in this year&#8217;s draft. Troy Fautanu in the first round, Zach Frazier in the second and McCormick in the fourth. It&#8217;s great value for the Steelers; many teams had given McCormick a day-2 grade. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Fifth round</h2><p><strong>Kris Abrams-Draine, CB, Denver Broncos (No. 145)</strong></p><p>Outside of Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos&#8217; CB room needed some additions. Abrams-Draine has a knack for making plays. I expected him to go earlier than this &#8212; maybe late in the third round or early fourth. Luckily for the Broncos, he lasts until pick 145. Due to his size, 5-foot-11, 175 pounds, he projects as a nickel, but that&#8217;s a job he can win pretty easily.</p><p><strong>Jeremiah Trotter Jr., LB, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 155)</strong></p><p>What&#8217;s not to love about this pick? His father, Jeremiah Trotter, had an illustrious career in Philadelphia. Trotter Jr. hopes to follow that same path. Not only is the story great, but it fills a need for the Eagles. Linebacker play has always been a negative for Philadelphia&#8217;s defense &#8212; since, well, the elder Trotter last swung his infamous imaginary axe at Lincoln Financial Field. Now, it&#8217;s Trotter Jr.&#8217;s turn to swing the axe.</p><p><strong>Mohamed Kamara, Edge, Miami Dolphins (No. 158)</strong></p><p>I had a third-round grade on Kamara, so the value here is incredible. But he also provides the Dolphins with much-needed depth. Their pass rush took a massive hit after Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb went down last season, so they made sure to add to that room with Kamara and first-round pick Chop Robinson.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Sixth round</h2><p><strong>Tanner McLachlan, TE, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 194)</strong></p><p>Bengals fans would&#8217;ve loved to come out of Thursday night with Georgia&#8217;s Brock Bowers. Well, here&#8217;s the discount version. Like Bowers, McLachlan lacks the ideal size for the position, but he is one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the class. He has great length and speed. </p><p><strong>Kristian Boyd, DT, New Orleans Saints (No. 199)</strong></p><p>Boyd is a stout and explosive nose tackle. He has the size and strength of a prospect that could be considered a day-two player, but he lacks length.</p><p><strong>Dylan Laube, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 208)</strong></p><p>Two things: I think Laube should have been selected earlier than this, but I love the fit with Antonio Pierce. They share the same football mentality &#8212; that dog mentality. The Raiders depth chart at running back is also thin. There is a path for Laube to contribute as a third-down, pass-catching back right away.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Seventh round</h2><p><strong>Brenden Rice, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (No. 225)</strong></p><p>The son of Jerry Rice figured to go a couple of rounds higher than this, especially after a great week in Mobile, Ala., but this is a good spot for him. After the Chargers traded Keenan Allen to the Bears and let Mike Williams walk in free agency, the wide receiver room became abysmal. There is development needed with Rice, but he could see playing time early.</p><p><strong>Michael Pratt, QB, Green Bay Packers (No. 245)</strong></p><p>Pratt should have been drafted before Florida State&#8217;s Jordan Travis and Kentucky&#8217;s Devin Leary, in my opinion. He had a great draft process and his film looked good. I think he&#8217;s good enough to push Sean Clifford to the side and win the backup QB job.</p><p><strong>Kalen King, CB, Green Bay Packers (No. 255)</strong></p><p>King was considered a safe bet to be drafted in the first round before the 2023 college football season. So, it&#8217;s not ideal to see his name this late. Frankly, he just wasn&#8217;t good in 2023. But he&#8217;s shown he can be good. The Packers are taking a chance on King hoping he returns to his 2022 form. It&#8217;s a good chance to take.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-draft-3-best-picks-of-each-round?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-draft-3-best-picks-of-each-round?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><h2></h2><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[There is more than meets the eye with J.J. McCarthy]]></title><description><![CDATA[I didn't think I would come away from the draft process enamored with McCarthy's game, but here we are. He's got the goods.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/there-is-more-than-meets-the-eye</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/there-is-more-than-meets-the-eye</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 23 Apr 2024 13:02:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First things first: J.J. McCarthy has the traits NFL teams covet. </p><p>And I&#8217;m not just talking about his winning pedigree &#8212; a 27-1 record in his career at Michigan, culminating in the 2023 National Championship. There&#8217;s more to his game than people realize. It took a while for many, myself included, to dig up his hidden abilities. And though it may have required a microscope to see the traits that stand out, they&#8217;re now evident. </p><p>His upside is tantalizing, so much so that it warrants a top-5 pick. </p><p>I&#8217;m all in on the former Wolverine.</p><div><hr></div><p>McCarthy&#8217;s stock has risen mightily throughout the draft process. Watching film over and over again is where you&#8217;ll see if prospects can be good in the NFL &#8212; and that&#8217;s what you needed to do with him. But also, events like the NFL Combine and Michigan&#8217;s pro day have benefited him.</p><p>One scout in attendance at Michigan&#8217;s pro day had this to say about his showing, according to Sports Illustrated&#8217;s Albert Breer: &#8220;His pro day was ridiculous. He&#8217;s a super athlete, a really efficient thrower.&#8221;</p><p>Though people are becoming aware of what McCarthy can do, some people are still floored he&#8217;s in contention to be a top-5 NFL draft pick. And yes, pro days aren&#8217;t the be-all and end-all of the evaluation process, but they certainly help contingents get a live, in-person look at a player.</p><p>In all fairness, I understand the doubts about McCarthy &#8212; or at least I did. First, he doesn&#8217;t have the production other top QBs have. Second, he has one good year of tape, his 2023 season.</p><p>McCarthy ended 2022 with 2,719 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with a 64.6% completion rate. They&#8217;re not bad stats by any means. In fact, they&#8217;re quite similar to his 2023 stats &#8212; 2,991 yards, 22 TDs and 4 INTs with a 72.3% completion rate. But McCarthy looked <em>much</em> better in 2023. Everything looked cleaner. His mechanics, accuracy and ability to drive the ball all improved drastically.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>Still, McCarthy&#8217;s evaluation was a difficult one. It&#8217;s tough to discern as much as you can from a QB with limited dropbacks. Former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh&#8217;s offensive philosophy is the ground-and-pound approach &#8212; complete smashmouth football. The Wolverines&#8217; offense averaged 24.3 pass attempts per game compared to its 37.5 rush attempts. But when you have the duo of Blake Corum, another highly-touted NFL draft prospect, and Donovan Edwards, a 2025 NFL Draft prospect, you can do that. </p><p>Nevertheless, despite the small sample size, I came away enamored with McCarthy&#8217;s game. </p><h2>What I liked in McCarthy&#8217;s enigmatic evaluation </h2><p>His ability to throw into tight spaces stands out. In the NFL, gaps close quickly and you need to be able to throw accurate, powerful passes. His wide base allows for not only accuracy and consistency but plenty of zip to drive the ball into the space. </p><p><a href="https://x.com/ByGavinRiley/status/1782209189571338473">Take a look at McCarthy's 22-yard touchdown pass to Roman Wilson vs. Ohio State in 2023</a>.</p><p>His throw against OSU was probably the best of the college football season. McCarthy flashes poise and anticipation as he bounces around the pocket. When he sees Wilson crossing the middle of the field &#8212; with a defender trailing his right hip and another with his back turned closing in from the opposite side &#8212; McCarthy fits the ball into the roughly three-foot window. </p><p>When the pocket collapses, throws on the run aren&#8217;t difficult for McCarthy. While he&#8217;s best when scrambling to his right side, he can make the cross-body throws you see at the NFL level. </p><p><a href="https://x.com/ByGavinRiley/status/1758352333648392203">See McCarthy&#8217;s 16-yard TD to Wilson vs. Nebraska this year</a>.</p><p>In this play, he showcases his athleticism and arm strength. As the play breaks down, McCarthy runs to his left with his eyes downfield. As he approaches the sideline, he sees Wilson in the back of the endzone, so he torques his body slightly to the right while moving left and throws a strike for a touchdown. </p><p>This type of throw is hard. It requires you to move your body unnaturally. McCarthy seemingly had no issue.</p><p><a href="https://x.com/ByGavinRiley/status/1782219479990088054">Here&#8217;s another TD throw on the run</a>.</p><p>Here, the pocket breaks down, McCarthy bounces out to the right, climbs the open space and fires on the run. This play is one of many that impressed me. His navigation of the pocket and movement ability help him mitigate sacks and exhaust the down, giving his receivers more time to get open. His career sack rate is 4.3%, third among this class&#8217; quarterbacks. </p><p>On top of all that, McCarthy is willing to stand strong in the pocket. Often, college QBs, especially younger ones like McCarthy, who&#8217;s 21 years old, panic under pressure. McCarthy&#8217;s situational awareness and toughness stand out in this sense.</p><p><a href="https://x.com/ByGavinRiley/status/1759705885415272709">Watch McCarthy take a hard hit to complete a 4-yard pass</a>.</p><p>This play isn&#8217;t complex, but it showcases his composure. McCarthy knew he was about to get hit hard, but he waited until the receiver created <em>just</em> <em>enough</em> separation so he could deliver an accurate ball.  </p><p>Here&#8217;s another: <a href="https://x.com/ByGavinRiley/status/1759706442758525084">McCarthy completes a short pass before getting destroyed by Penn State&#8217;s Chop Robinson</a>.</p><p>These are just <em>some</em> plays that stood out to me. </p><p>Now, onto some numbers.</p><p>McCarthy was absurdly good on third downs, specifically downs 3rd and 7+. According to a chart created by Nicholas Miller of The Viking Age, he had a 73% completion rate, with an average depth of target of 11.1. So, not only was he converting a first down on 3rd and longs often, but most of the time he was throwing beyond the sticks. That&#8217;s impressive.</p><p>To add to that, PFF charted McCarthy with the highest completion percentage while scrambling (71.4%) among this year&#8217;s class. In a draft headlined by USC&#8217;s Caleb Williams and LSU&#8217;s Jayden Daniels, two Heisman Trophy winners who excel on the move, McCarthy leading that category is surprising but impressive. For context, former Oregon&#8217;s Bo Nix was second behind McCarthy with 58.6%.</p><p>The bottom line is, despite the lack of attempts Michigan tasked to McCarthy, he was incredibly efficient and productive with his opportunities. He has the arm, he has the traits and he&#8217;s a known winner. There&#8217;s talk that he won&#8217;t be able to start right away, and maybe that&#8217;s true. It may be best to sit him for a year, depending on the situation he goes to. But there&#8217;s no doubt McCarthy should be a top-5 pick on Thursday night.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/there-is-more-than-meets-the-eye?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/there-is-more-than-meets-the-eye?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[NFL combine primer: Players to watch and storylines to follow throughout the week]]></title><description><![CDATA[With the 2023 season in the past, the off-season is now a full go.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-combine-primer-players-to-watch</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/nfl-combine-primer-players-to-watch</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 28 Feb 2024 05:00:26 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the 2023 season in the past, the off-season is now a full go. The league calendar these next few months is packed with dates to know, the first fueling fire to rumors, evaluations and the overall draft process as a whole: the NFL Combine.</p><p>Thursday, Feb. 29, is the first day of on-field drills at the combine. We&#8217;ll see defensive line/linebacker prospects take part in workouts starting at 3:00 p.m., followed by defensive backs/tight ends on Friday (3:00 p.m.), quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers on Saturday (1:00 p.m.) and offensive line on Sunday (1:00 p.m.).</p><p>This year&#8217;s class is loaded with talented prospects, headlined by USC QB Caleb Williams and Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr &#8212; two guys who won&#8217;t participate in this year&#8217;s event in Indianapolis. But alongside them are players looking to prove themselves and stand out. And at the combine, there&#8217;s no better place to do so. </p><p>I&#8217;ve curated a list of players to watch and storylines to follow at each position throughout the week.</p><h2><strong>Quarterbacks</strong></h2><p><a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4433970">JJ McCarthy</a> (Michigan) and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426348/jayden-daniels">Jayden Daniels</a> (LSU) are two guys to watch at the quarterback position. While Daniels won&#8217;t participate in the combine &#8212; he&#8217;s choosing to wait for his Pro Day &#8212; he&#8217;ll be there for interviews and team meetings. </p><p>Both McCarthy (6-foot-3, 202 pounds) and Daniels (6-foot-4, 210 pounds) most likely played under their listed weights. If that was the case, their weigh-ins at the combine will be something to watch. Those weights are far from ideal for sustainability at the position, especially with the hits Daniels sometimes takes.</p><p>While Daniels won&#8217;t throw at the combine, McCarthy will, a choice that could boost his draft stock. He wasn&#8217;t tasked with throwing the ball much in <a href="https://www.chargers.com/team/coaches-roster/jim-harbaugh">Jim Harbaugh</a>&#8217;s run-heavy offense &#8212; McCarthy threw for over 250 yards in just four games last season. It was at no fault of his abilities; he can make just about every throw on the field. He&#8217;s fundamentally sound with a tight throwing motion and a wide base, and I think teams will covet his mechanics.</p><h2>Running backs</h2><p>A running back may not get drafted in the first two rounds of the draft, but that doesn&#8217;t mean there aren&#8217;t any good ones. The testing numbers for <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4429096/blake-corum">Blake Corum</a> (Michigan) and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4685247/braelon-allen">Braelon Allen</a> (Wisconsin) could boost their draft stocks mightily. Allen may be the most interesting on the list, standing at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds. He also just turned 20 years old in January.</p><p>Corum is on the complete opposite side of the spectrum. At 5-foot-8 and 213 pounds, the 23-year-old was a production monster at Michigan. In his final season with the Wolverines, he rushed for 1,245 yards and 27 touchdowns (27!). But a main concern with Corum is the speed, so we&#8217;ll get a better look with the 40-yard dash.</p><h2>Wide receiver</h2><p><a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4635008/keon-coleman">Keon Coleman</a> (FSU) is fun to watch. His athleticism and 50/50 catching ability stand out on tape, but he struggled to separate, and his vertical speed remains a question mark. If he runs below a 4.5 in the 40-yard dash, he&#8217;ll answer questions about the speed.</p><p>Swaying away from potential first-round picks, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4431492/roman-wilson">Roman Wilson</a> (Michigan). Wilson stood out at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala., and boosted his stock after two days of practice. He&#8217;s a burner with exceptional route-running. I expect him to run in the low 4.3s, but the 3-cone drill is one I&#8217;m particularly watching. </p><p>Wilson played a ton of slot for the Wolverines, and he projects to have a similar role in the NFL, though he could play outside successfully. If you look at all of the premium slot receivers in the league, they all have one thing in common: Short-area quickness. The 3-cone drill measures a player's speed, quickness, change of direction, and agility. Wilson&#8217;s extremely quick, so I expect him to test well in that area as well.</p><h2>Tight end</h2><p><a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432665/brock-bowers">Brock Bowers</a> (Georgia) is unequivocally TE1 in this class. After him, there is a big drop off, with the next being <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4431588/ja'tavion-sanders">Ja&#8217;Tavion Sanders</a> (Texas). </p><p>There has been minimal first-round discourse for the former Longhorn, who is a versatile receiving threat with above-average run-after-catch ability at 6-foot-4, 243 pounds. He could solidify his TE2 at the combine and be a part of more first-round discussions as we inch closer to April.</p><h2>Offensive line</h2><p>There are plenty of first-round-worthy offensive tackles in this year&#8217;s draft class. <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4609048/tyler-guyton">Tyler Guyton</a> (Oklahoma) and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4431571/amarius-mims">Amarius Mims</a> (Georgia) are two intriguing ones.</p><p>Guyton is a former tight end turned to right tackle. Even with a leaner build, he stands at 6-foot-7, 328 pounds. He&#8217;s raw, but he has all the tools to be a perennial Pro Bowl player. </p><p>Mims, to put it simply, is a freak. For football, the term freak is endearing. He has a massive frame (6-foot-7, 340 pounds) and the above-average movement skills for the position. I&#8217;m excited to watch both of them test.</p><h2>Defensive tackle</h2><p>For the defensive tackles, I&#8217;m keeping an eye on the two Longhorns from Texas, <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4570040/byron-murphy-ii">Byron Murphy II</a> and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4428617/t'vondre-sweat">T&#8217;Vondre Sweat</a>. </p><p>Murphy is a gifted pass rusher who&#8217;s incredibly powerful despite his size (6-foot-1, 308 pounds). He&#8217;s an explosive athlete who will test well among the competing class at his position.</p><p>His teammate, Sweat, is the epitome of sheer dominance. He put on a show at the Senior Bowl, bulldozing his opponents on many reps. But there was one issue with his visit to Mobile: He chose not to weigh in. That&#8217;s concerning for someone who was listed at 6-foot-4, 362 pounds. My belief is that he showed up overweight &#8212; and I&#8217;d say he was north of 380 pounds. </p><h2>Edge</h2><p><a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426473/laiatu-latu">Laiatu Latu</a> (UCLA) is my favorite pass rusher in the draft. He&#8217;s not the most athletic, but he&#8217;ll beat you with power and technique. He had 13 sacks last season and led all FBS edge defenders with a 24.7% pressure rate. It&#8217;s not his skills that I'll be paying attention to, though; it&#8217;s his medicals.</p><p>Latu has a great comeback story, but it can&#8217;t be ignored. Before transferring to UCLA for the 2023 season, Latu missed the 2020 and 2021 seasons with Washington due to a neck injury that forced him to medically retire. After being cleared by doctors, he solidified his first-round prospects. </p><h2>Linebackers</h2><p>Like the running backs, there is no clear-cut alpha. Many analysts have <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4430438/edgerrin-cooper">Edgerrin Cooper</a> (Texas A&amp;M), a rangy, downhill off-ball playmaker who lives behind the line of scrimmage, as their top LB. But if it weren&#8217;t for injuries throughout his career, I think <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4361652/payton-wilson">Payton Wilson</a> (NC State) could be in that conversation.</p><p>Wilson is an athletic freak, and he&#8217;s going to test like it. But like Latu, his medicals are important &#8212; he&#8217;s suffered two ACL tears, a season-ending shoulder injury in 2021 and battled multiple hamstring issues.</p><h2>Defensive backs</h2><p>The Senior Bowl helped many cornerbacks boost their stock, particularly <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4686273/quinyon-mitchell">Quinyon Mitchell</a> (Toledo). He&#8217;s going to test extremely well, likely running in the 4.3s to further solidify his first-round potential and possibly insert himself into the CB1 conversation. But two guys I&#8217;m excited to see test are <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4433975/kool-aid-mckinstry">Kool-Aid McKinstry</a> (Alabama) and <a href="https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4566092/ennis-rakestraw-jr">Ennis Rakestraw Jr</a> (Missouri).</p><p>Before the 2023 season, McKinstry was viewed as a better NFL prospect than his teammate, Terrion Arnold, but the latter separated himself throughout the season and in the draft process based on physical attributes and athleticism. But McKinstry is no slouch. He&#8217;s a high-IQ player cover corner that is technically sound. While he&#8217;s smooth, he has question marks surrounding his athleticism and speed. His 40-yard dash time, if well, will silence much of that.</p><p>As for Rakestraw Jr., he was supposed to compete in Mobile with the rest of the star-studded cornerback group at the Senior Bowl but was unable to because of a late-season injury he was recovering from. The stuff he excels at &#8212; physicality at the line of scrimmage and willingness as a run defender &#8212; we won&#8217;t be able to see at the combine, but his athletic traits should boost his stock. I also think teams will fall in love with his fluidity and ability to flip his hips seamlessly.</p><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>