<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" version="2.0" xmlns:itunes="http://www.itunes.com/dtds/podcast-1.0.dtd" xmlns:googleplay="http://www.google.com/schemas/play-podcasts/1.0"><channel><title><![CDATA[Hail Mary]]></title><description><![CDATA[Your online space for insightful NFL writing.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com</link><image><url>https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png</url><title>Hail Mary</title><link>https://www.gavinriley.com</link></image><generator>Substack</generator><lastBuildDate>Sat, 11 Apr 2026 20:43:09 GMT</lastBuildDate><atom:link href="https://www.gavinriley.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml"/><copyright><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></copyright><language><![CDATA[en]]></language><webMaster><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></webMaster><itunes:owner><itunes:email><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></itunes:email><itunes:name><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></itunes:name></itunes:owner><itunes:author><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></itunes:author><googleplay:owner><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></googleplay:owner><googleplay:email><![CDATA[gavinriley@substack.com]]></googleplay:email><googleplay:author><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></googleplay:author><itunes:block><![CDATA[Yes]]></itunes:block><item><title><![CDATA[Gavin Riley’s top 50 2026 NFL Draft prospects ]]></title><description><![CDATA[This is my first deep dive into the 50 names defining the 2026 cycle.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2026-nfl-draft</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2026-nfl-draft</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 19 Mar 2026 16:03:08 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2026 draft is quickly approaching. With the process in full swing, which has included record-breaking vertical jumps and some 40-times that had scouts double-checking their stopwatches in Indy, the board is officially shaking up. We&#8217;ve got a defensive-heavy class this year and a &#8220;Big Three&#8221; at receiver that&#8217;s starting to look like a lock.</p><p>Here is my top 50 for the 2026 class.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>1. Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame</h2><p>Love is the most electric college running back since Saquon Barkley. He was the undisputed heartbeat of the Irish offense, winning with 4.36 speed and a &#8220;joystick&#8221; ability to make the first three defenders miss. He was fourth in the nation in yards per carry (6.9), but it&#8217;s his natural hands in the pass game that make him a three-down superstar. He is the safest, most impactful player in this draft.</p><h2>2. Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana</h2><p>The Hoosier legend is a lock for the No. 1 pick. Fresh off a Heisman season and a National Championship, Mendoza is a 6&#8217;5&#8221;, 236-pound specimen with the processing speed of a ten-year vet. He finished with 48 total touchdowns and only 6 interceptions, showing a rare blend of pocket poise and a &#8220;big-game&#8221; gene that NFL GMs will kill for. He has &#8220;franchise savior&#8221; written all over him.</p><h2>3. Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State </h2><p>Downs, essentially, is a coach on the field. He picks up defensive systems instantly and plays with the range of a center fielder. He is the most instinctive safety to enter the draft in a long time.</p><h2>4. Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State</h2><p>Styles is a lab-grown defender. He shattered the Combine with a 43.5-inch vertical at nearly 245 pounds. His transition from safety to linebacker has been flawless, giving him the range to erase tight ends in man coverage while possessing the frame to stack and shed guards. He&#8217;s the ultimate modern-day chess piece for a creative defensive coordinator.</p><h2>5. Arvell Reese, LB/Edge, Ohio State</h2><p>Reese has shades of Micah Parsons. He creates a nightmare for offensive lines because you never know if he&#8217;s dropping into a hook-curl or firing off the edge. He&#8217;s an unfinished work of art, but his 4.46 speed and closing burst are unusual for a man his size. He&#8217;s a blue-chip athlete with the highest ceiling of any defender in the draft.</p><div><hr></div><h2>The rest of the big board: 6-50</h2><ol start="6"><li><p><strong>Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami</strong>: Ignore the arm length concerns. Bain is a scheme-wrecker who wins with a violent bull rush and an elite pass-rush IQ. He&#8217;s a high-motor powerhouse who was the focal point of every ACC offensive coordinator&#8217;s nightmare.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech</strong>: Bailey is the twitchiest pass rusher in this class. He led the country with 14.5 sacks and over 70 pressures, winning almost entirely on a lightning-quick first step and a devastating dip-and-rip move. He ran a 4.5 40-yard dash in Indy, confirming the track speed we see on tape. He&#8217;s a hungry dog off the leash who will contribute 10+ sacks early in his career.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU</strong>: The clear CB1, with Jermod McCoy still recovering from his ACL tear and not having played all year. Delane is a silky-smooth technician with 33-inch arms who hasn&#8217;t given up a touchdown in over a dozen starts. He&#8217;s a lockdown boundary corner who makes difficult mirroring look easy.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Makai Lemon, WR, USC</strong>: The Biletnikoff winner is a high-volume slot weapon. He isn&#8217;t the biggest, but he&#8217;s a master of finding soft spots in zone and is nearly impossible to touch in the open field.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State</strong>: Tate is an X receiver, from none other than the Ohio State factory, who catches everything in his zip code. He led the Big Ten in contested-catch touchdowns and runs some of the crispest intermediate routes I&#8217;ve seen in years.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State</strong>: The best pure interior lineman in the class. Ioane is a people mover with a powerful anchor. If you want to run the ball between the tackles, you draft this guy.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State</strong>: A versatile target who can align at all three receiver spots. Tyson is a vertical threat who improved his route-running significantly under Hines Ward&#8217;s coaching.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami</strong>: A massive mauler who won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy as the ACC&#8217;s best lineman. Whether he stays at tackle or moves to guard, he is a Day 1 starter who resets the line of scrimmage on every run play.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee</strong>: McCoy has elite ball skills and a background as a wide receiver that shows up when the ball is in the air. He&#8217;s sticky in press and has the recovery speed to erase early mistakes. The problem is, he didn&#8217;t play at all in 2025 as he continues to recover from a torn ACL.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Spencer Fano, OT, Utah</strong>: The Outland Trophy winner is a technician with elite movement skills. He&#8217;s played both tackle spots and inside, offering the kind of five-position versatility that builds championship offensive lines.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama</strong>: A high-variance gunslinger with an elite arm. When Simpson is on, he looks like a top-five pick; he just needs to iron out the occasional turnover-worthy throw to reach his full potential.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Caleb Banks, DT, Florida</strong>: At 6&#8217;6&#8221; and 335 pounds, Banks is an immovable object. He&#8217;s more than just a space-eater, though&#8212;he has the raw power to collapse pockets from the interior.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia</strong>: Freeling is a projection based on his elite athletic traits. He&#8217;s 6&#8217;7&#8221; and ran a sub-5.0 40, showing the mobility to be a dominant zone-blocking tackle.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon</strong>: Sadiq is a matchup nightmare who moves like a wideout but blocks like a tackle. He&#8217;s a red-zone weapon who can win at all three levels of the field.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon</strong>: Thieneman is a ballhawking safety who led the country in interceptions for a stretch. He&#8217;s a possible Day 1 starter who rarely misses a tackle in the open field.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami</strong>: A veteran rusher who wins with technique and heavy hands. He&#8217;s a high-floor prospect who will provide immediate production as a rotational or starting end.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana</strong>: Cooper Jr. forced 27 missed tackles last season (tied for 4th in the FBS) and has some of the best contact balance in the class. <br></p></li><li><p><strong>Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson</strong>: A scrappy, physical corner who plays with a massive chip on his shoulder. He&#8217;s smaller than some of the top-tier guys but makes up for it with elite anticipation.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>K.C. Concepcion, WR, Texas A&amp;M</strong>: An all-purpose weapon who won the Paul Hornung Award. He can catch, run, and return, making him a &#8220;manufactured touch&#8221; dream for an NFL coach.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo</strong>: A small-school gem who plays much faster than he tests. He&#8217;s a smart, rangy safety who always seems to be around the football.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Denzel Boston, WR, Washington</strong>: A 6&#8217;4&#8221; physical specimen who excels as a chain-mover. He uses his frame beautifully to box out corners on third-down slants and red-zone fades.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>C.J. Allen, LB, Georgia</strong>: Allen is the latest sideline-to-sideline linebacker from the Georgia factory. He&#8217;s incredibly fast and hits like a ton of bricks when he fills the hole.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Peter Woods, DT, Clemson</strong>: Woods is an elite interior disruptor who has been double-teamed his entire college career. His get-off for a man of his size is genuinely startling.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Eli Stowers, TE, Vanderbilt</strong>: A former quarterback turned tight end. He&#8217;s still learning the nuances of the position, but his athleticism is elite for a TE, which helped make him one of the most productive players at the position the past couple of years.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Cashius Howell, Edge, Texas A&amp;M</strong>: A refined pass rusher with a spin move that should be illegal. He&#8217;s undersized but wins with elite bend and a relentless motor.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Blake Miller, OT, Clemson</strong>: A four-year starter with a ton of experience. Miller is a reliable, tough tackle who should be a safe pick in the middle rounds.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Brandon Cisse, CB, South Carolina</strong>: A late riser who looked spectacular during the Senior Bowl. He&#8217;s a height-weight-speed prospect who is just starting to put it all together.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Kayden McDonald, DT, Ohio State</strong>: A broad-framed run stuffer. McDonald is the guy you want if you&#8217;re tired of giving up four yards a carry on the ground.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>D&#8217;Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana</strong>: A ballhawk who was a vital part of Indiana&#8217;s title run. He has a natural nose for the ball and plays bigger than his frame.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Anthony Hill Jr., LB, Texas</strong>: A violent blitzer who can also play off the ball. Hill is at his best when he&#8217;s moving forward and attacking the line of scrimmage.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn</strong>: A long, powerful end who excels as a run defender. He needs to expand his pass-rush arsenal, but the physical tools are all there.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech</strong>: A fast, active linebacker who thrives in pursuit. He&#8217;s an all-gas player who contributes on both defense and special teams.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Chase Bisontis, OG, Texas A&amp;M</strong>: A tough, technically sound interior blocker who plays with a nasty streak. He&#8217;s a high-floor prospect who projects as a long-time starter.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame</strong>: A 1B back at Notre Dame who would be a 1A almost anywhere else. He&#8217;s a powerful runner with surprising breakaway speed.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Max Klare, TE, Ohio State</strong>: A reliable security blanket. Klare is the guy you go to on 3rd-and-6 when you absolutely need a completion.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State</strong>: A long, rangy corner with elite speed. He&#8217;s still raw technically, but you can&#8217;t teach his physical dimensions.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama</strong>: A 350-pound people mover who you can move out wide for some trickery. He&#8217;s a project, but his power in the run game is second to none in this class.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Malachi Lawrence, Edge, UCF: </strong>A freak athlete who exploded at the Combine with a 4.52 40-yard dash at 253 pounds. He is a high-ceiling speed rusher who closes on quarterbacks like he&#8217;s shot out of a cannon.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>T.J. Parker, Edge, Clemson</strong>: A high-floor rusher who understands leverage and hand placement. He projects as a solid, every-down starter at the next level.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Connor Lew, OG, Auburn</strong>: An athletic guard who is excellent in space. He&#8217;s at his best when he&#8217;s pulling or getting to the second level.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech</strong>: A mountain of a man who is nearly impossible to single-block. He&#8217;s a specialized run-stuffer who will help any interior defense.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Jonah Coleman, RB, Washington</strong>: A bowling ball of a runner with elite contact balance. He&#8217;s a guy who thrives on 20+ carries a game and wears defenses down.</p><p></p></li><li><p><strong>Malachi Fields, WR, Notre Dame</strong>: A 6&#8217;4&#8221; boundary target who solidified his stock with a 38-inch vertical in Indy. He&#8217;s a premier contested-catch specialist who uses his massive frame to box out corners and move the chains.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>R Mason Thomas, Edge, Oklahoma</strong>: A twitchy, high-motor pass rusher with 17 career sacks and an elite 85.3 PFF grade. He wins with a lightning-quick first step and refined hand work that makes him a Day 1 situational weapon.<br></p></li><li><p><strong>Germie Bernard, WR, Alabama:</strong> A reliable, high-IQ technician who led the Tide in receiving during their 2025 title run. While he isn't a burner, he posted a standout 6.71-second 3-cone drill in Indy, proving he has the elite short-area agility to win in the slot and as a Day 1 possession target.<br></p></li></ol><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2026-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Hail Mary! This post is public so feel free to share it.</p></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2026-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2026-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p></div><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2026 NFL Draft: "My Guys" Edition]]></title><description><![CDATA[Football, in its purest, most violent form, isn&#8217;t played on a spreadsheet.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2026-nfl-draft-my-guys-edition</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2026-nfl-draft-my-guys-edition</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2026 20:06:10 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg" width="1000" height="667" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!F2rg!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F41333ed3-083d-41ca-b793-6c292c4713d7_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire</figcaption></figure></div><p>Football, in its purest, most violent form, isn&#8217;t played on a spreadsheet. It&#8217;s a chaotic, violent test of will. It lives in the dark trenches where 300-pound men try to erase each other&#8217;s existence, and on the lonely islands where a cornerback&#8217;s heartbeat is the only sound louder than 50,000 screaming fans.</p><p>We spend the entire spring obsessing over arm length and cone drills, yet every Sunday we learn the same lesson: The stopwatch can&#8217;t measure the fight in the dog. The best players aren&#8217;t always the ones the analysts projected; they are the ones who simply refuse to be denied. The overlooked. The grinders. The ones you have to drag off the field.</p><p>These are &#8220;My Guys&#8221; this year.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h3>D&#8217;Angelo Ponds, CB, Indiana</h3><p>Let&#8217;s get the not-so-large elephant in the room out of the way: D&#8217;Angelo Ponds is 5&#8217;9&#8221;. In an NFL obsessed with &#8220;prototypical&#8221; 6&#8217;2&#8221; boundary corners who look like Greek gods, Ponds looks like he&#8217;s in the wrong huddle.</p><p>But turn on the tape.</p><p>Ponds doesn&#8217;t just play; he inflicts himself on wide receivers. He is a 170-pound buzzsaw that spends sixty minutes a game trying to dismantle the confidence of anyone wearing a different jersey. If Ponds were three inches taller, we&#8217;d be talking about a top-10 lock&#8212;a generational cover man. Instead, teams will overthink it. They&#8217;ll look at the height and ignore the fact that he spent last year turning the Big Ten into a private no-fly zone.</p><p>Outside of a slugfest with Ohio State&#8217;s Jeremiah Smith&#8212;a matchup that felt like a heavyweight title fight&#8212;Ponds has been an eraser. He is a fluid, twitchy technician who understands leverage better than the guys who wrote the coaching manuals. He doesn&#8217;t just trail receivers; he wears them like a second skin.</p><p>For the NFL general manager sitting in a draft room in April: Stop looking at the ruler. Get yourself a guy who competes like his life depends on every snap. Ponds is a tone-setter.</p><h3>Skyler Bell, WR, UConn</h3><p>You need to <em>pop</em> to stand out at UConn. You aren&#8217;t playing in front of the bright lights of the SEC every week. You&#8217;re in the trenches of independent football, earning every single yard.</p><p>Skyler Bell didn&#8217;t just earn yards this year; he conquered them.</p><p>A Biletnikoff finalist who proved that talent will find its way to the surface regardless of the logo on the helmet, Bell is the ultimate &#8220;security blanket&#8221; with a lethal edge. He is a violent route-runner, a player who uses his hands and hips to create separation like a surgeon with a scalpel. But what separates Bell from the track stars is what happens when the ball is in the air.</p><p>He hauled in 20 of 37 contested targets this past season. Think about that. In a &#8220;50/50&#8221; situation, the math favored Bell nearly 60% of the time. He has this uncanny, predatory sense of where the ball is and a refusal to let anyone else touch it. When he tucks the ball, he transforms. He&#8217;s not just a receiver; he&#8217;s a North-South punisher who searches for contact rather than sprinting for the boundary. Bell is the guy you want on 3rd-and-8 when the pass rush is closing in, and you need someone to make a play in traffic.</p><h3>Lee Hunter, DT, Texas Tech</h3><p>In a league that is increasingly becoming a horizontal game of speed and space, Lee Hunter is a glorious, 330-pound throwback. He is the immovable object that makes the &#8220;unstoppable force&#8221; look silly.</p><p>Watching Hunter play is like watching a boulder roll downhill. He is an anchor of pure, unadulterated strength. When Hunter sits in a gap, that gap no longer exists. He has this rare &#8220;knock-back&#8221; power; the moment he initiates contact, the offensive lineman is instantly on his heels, fighting a losing battle against physics.</p><p>But he isn&#8217;t just a space-eater. Hunter possesses a surprising, explosive burst for a man of his displacement. He&#8217;s not just holding the line; he&#8217;s penetrating it. He collapses pockets from the inside out, forcing quarterbacks to flee into the waiting arms of edge rushers. </p><p>In the Senior Bowl, considered an &#8220;All-Star Game&#8221; for the draft prospects, he was a dominant entity&#8212;so much so that he&#8217;s likely to be discussed as a surefire first-round pick now.</p><p>If you want to fix a soft defense, you start in the middle. You start with Lee Hunter.</p><h3>Makai Lemon, WR, USC</h3><p>I usually try to stay away from the &#8220;blue-chip&#8221; talent in these columns. I&#8217;d rather highlight Day two prospects or find the diamond in the rough. </p><p>But with Makai Lemon, resistance is futile.</p><p>And yes, the reports of him &#8220;bombing&#8221; his Combine interviews are <em>concerning</em>&#8230;if you believe them. I have not yet.</p><p>So, let&#8217;s move on.</p><p>Lemon was the Biletnikoff winner for a reason. In a season where he had to compete against the likes of Jeremiah Smith and the aforementioned Bell for the hardware, Lemon stood alone. He is the quintessential &#8220;crafty&#8221; slot receiver taken to its absolute evolutionary peak.</p><p>He is a YAC machine, a player who treats every touch like a personal challenge to the opposing secondary. Lemon understands spacing with a veteran&#8217;s intuition; he finds the soft spots in zones like he has a GPS to the end zone. He is &#8220;undersized&#8221; by the old-school standards, but he plays with a ferocious, chip-on-the-shoulder intensity.</p><p>He has &#8220;safe hands&#8221; in the way a bank vault is safe. If the ball is in his vicinity, it&#8217;s his. But it&#8217;s the creativity after the catch&#8212;the shimmy, the sudden acceleration, the refusal to go down on the first contact&#8212;that makes him a nightmare for defensive coordinators. He was the heartbeat of the USC offense and will be the &#8220;get out of jail free&#8221; card for an NFL quarterback the moment he steps on a pro field.</p><div><hr></div><p>Come April, general managers will inevitably talk themselves into &#8220;potential,&#8221; drafting athletes who look great in spandex but shrink when the hitting starts. Let them chase the unicorns and the testing warriors. The real game isn&#8217;t won in a gym; it&#8217;s won in the dirt.</p><p>These four players represent the violent, beautiful reality of football. They are the identity changers&#8212;the ones who turn 50/50 balls into guarantees and trenches into graveyards. You can keep the prototypes and the spreadsheet darlings. I&#8217;ll take the guys who treat every snap like a street fight.</p><p>Don&#8217;t overthink the measurements. Draft the heart. Draft the violence. Draft the dogs.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2026-nfl-draft-my-guys-edition?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2026-nfl-draft-my-guys-edition?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Entering year 5, Panthers’ Chuba Hubbard remains one of the NFL’s best-kept secrets]]></title><description><![CDATA[Carolina's workhorse has quietly become indispensable while flying under the NFL's radar.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/entering-year-5-panthers-chuba-hubbard</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/entering-year-5-panthers-chuba-hubbard</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 09 Jun 2025 20:45:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg" width="1000" height="667" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:667,&quot;width&quot;:1000,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:436578,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/i/165344612?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!IPHs!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ab45d70-070b-4651-b684-27c3f664ba50_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo by John Byrum/Icon Sportswire</figcaption></figure></div><p>Five years into an NFL running back's career, the league has usually made its verdict: you're either a household name commanding touches and headlines, relegated to a committee role sharing carries, or you're fighting for roster spots as teams look toward the next draft class. The position rarely offers middle ground &#8212; you're either the feature back, part of the rotation, or you're not.</p><p>Yet Chuba Hubbard has carved out something rarer: the productive middle. He's not generating MVP buzz or among the top-selling jerseys, but he's also not scrambling for carries. He&#8217;s simply been getting the job done in relative obscurity. </p><p>No fanfare. No headlines. Just production.</p><p>The 25-year-old enters 2025 not just as the Panthers&#8217; starter, but as one of the most quietly effective backs in football. The Canadian-born back&#8217;s fourth NFL season was a coming-of-age performance &#8212; nearly 1,200 rushing yards, double-digit touchdowns, and a string of games where he looked like the only functional piece in a broken offense. While others faded around him, Hubbard found daylight. Consistently and decisively.</p><p>For anyone unfamiliar with how Hubbard became one of the NFL&#8217;s most overlooked players &#8212; or for anyone overdue for a reminder &#8212; here&#8217;s a closer look at one of football&#8217;s best-kept secrets.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2><strong>How&#8217;d Hubbard end up in Carolina?</strong></h2><p>Long before he was Carolina&#8217;s steadying force, Hubbard was a human highlight reel in Stillwater. The Alberta native at Oklahoma State led the nation in rushing in 2019, exploding for over 2,000 yards in just 13 games. That season wasn&#8217;t just statistically dominant &#8212; it was unforgettable. One of his finest outings came against a Baylor team led by then-head coach Matt Rhule. Hubbard rushed for 171 yards and two touchdowns.</p><p>Apparently, it stuck.</p><p>Two years later, Rhule, who was Carolina's head coach at the time, found himself in the fourth round of the 2021 NFL Draft with a decision to make. That's when a text popped up on his phone from his wife, Julie, who must have watched that 2019 game too.</p><p>The text read: &#8220;Please take Chuba Hubbard<em>.&#8221;</em></p><p>The staff made the call, and Hubbard became a Panther. The message was passed along to him afterward, and it became one of those oddly endearing NFL stories. But beneath the charm was something deeper: someone in that building remembered what Hubbard could do when the ball was in his hands.</p><p>Turns out, they were right.</p><h2><strong>From backup to backbone</strong></h2><p>The early years in Carolina were complicated. Hubbard arrived as a developmental runner behind Christian McCaffrey, and his rookie season showed flashes &#8212; nearly 800 total yards, six touchdowns &#8212; but also inconsistency. His vision needed sharpening, and his pass protection was raw. And when McCaffrey was healthy, there weren&#8217;t many carries to go around anyway.</p><p>But Hubbard stayed ready. And when McCaffrey was shipped to San Francisco in 2022, the door opened. Slowly, methodically, Hubbard walked through.</p><p>By 2023, he was the team&#8217;s leading rusher. By 2024, he was its identity.</p><p>That identity crystallized in Week 16 against the Arizona Cardinals &#8212; 25 carries, 152 yards, two touchdowns, and a walk-off score in overtime. On that final play, Hubbard showcased everything that&#8217;s made him quietly indispensable: patience, vision, agility, and burst. He hesitated just long enough for the field to open, cut to the right, planted, and accelerated with nothing but green turf in front of him. Twenty-one yards later, he slow-stepped into the endzone and was immediately surrounded by a throng of black and blue uniforms. </p><p>At the season&#8217;s end, Hubbard totaled 1,195 rushing yards and added 11 total touchdowns. The numbers are impressive, but they don&#8217;t capture the context. He ran behind one of the league&#8217;s most injury-ravaged offensive lines. His quarterback situation was largely unstable, albeit Bryce Young's late-season renaissance provided some offensive continuity. Yet under those circumstances, he managed to average 4.8 yards per carry while accounting for nearly a third of Carolina&#8217;s total yardage over the final two months of the season.</p><p>Ask anyone who watched the Panthers closely: Hubbard was the offense.</p><p>So when Carolina signed him to a four-year extension last fall &#8212; worth a little north of $33 million with significant guarantees &#8212; it didn&#8217;t come as a surprise. In a season where little went right, Hubbard gave the front office something rare: a clear answer at a cloudy position.</p><p>The extension seemed like perfect timing &#8212; until you remember the Panthers also spent a second-round pick on Jonathan Brooks just months earlier.</p><p>In April 2024, the Panthers drafted the Texas running back, widely considered the draft's most complete back. The catch? Brooks was rehabbing a torn ACL from his final college season. At the time, this seemed like a calculated risk worth taking, especially before Hubbard's breakout year.</p><p>Then disaster struck twice. Brooks tore the same ACL again in Week 14 against the Philadelphia Eagles, just his second game back. For the second time in 15 months, he'd spend a year rehabbing instead of running. Last month, the Panthers officially placed him on the PUP list, ruling him out for the entire 2025-26 season.</p><p>Brooks complicates the long-term picture, but the short-term remains clear: this is still Hubbard's backfield. And if 2024 was any indication, the Panthers are perfectly fine with that.</p><h2><strong>Hubbard has proved he&#8217;s anything but a placeholder</strong></h2><p>What makes Hubbard's emergence so compelling isn't just his numbers &#8212; it's his path to them. In a league that typically sorts running backs into clear categories, he's thrived in the space between stardom and obscurity. He isn&#8217;t the fastest back in the league. Or the biggest. Or the flashiest. But he is, increasingly, one of the smartest and most consistent.</p><p>His footwork is better now. His patience is evident. And his understanding of blocking schemes &#8212; zone or gap &#8212; is what allows him to hit holes decisively, before they close. There&#8217;s a subtlety to his game that doesn&#8217;t show up in fantasy stats or highlight reels. But it&#8217;s there, especially when you see the difference between Hubbard and everyone else the Panthers trotted out at running back last season.</p><p>He&#8217;s not just surviving. He&#8217;s thriving.</p><p>Now, with a second-year coaching staff and a reimagined offense, the question becomes whether Hubbard is the long-term solution or merely a bridge to whatever Brooks becomes.</p><p>But maybe that question misses the point. Because every time Hubbard is asked to prove himself, he does. Every time the league seems to look past him, he looks straight ahead. And maybe the better question isn&#8217;t whether he&#8217;s the long-term answer, but why we keep asking.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/entering-year-5-panthers-chuba-hubbard?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/entering-year-5-panthers-chuba-hubbard?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[BEYOND HIS YEARS: How 17-year-old Ryan Williams took the SEC by storm]]></title><description><![CDATA[What makes a now 18-year-old receiver unstoppable against college football's elite? This breakdown reveals how Williams became SEC's youngest superstar.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/beyond-his-years-how-17-year-old</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/beyond-his-years-how-17-year-old</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2025 16:25:56 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!qMri!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5d977e41-1ca7-4e59-b876-da159086e9b5_1000x667.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo by Ricky Bowden/Icon Sportswire</figcaption></figure></div><p>Ryan Williams should&#8217;ve been playing on Friday nights.</p><p>Instead, he was lighting up Saturdays, turning SEC cornerbacks into highlight-reel victims.</p><p>At just 17 years old, the reclassified freshman phenom didn&#8217;t merely survive his first season at Alabama &#8212; he took over.</p><p>Let&#8217;s be clear: it&#8217;s rare &#8212; almost unheard of &#8212; for a true freshman to crack the starting rotation in the SEC. It&#8217;s even rarer when that player should technically still be in high school. In an era dominated by transfer portal veterans and fifth-year seniors, freshmen are often brought along slowly.</p><p>Not Williams. From the moment he stepped on the field, he looked like Alabama&#8217;s most dangerous weapon. A polished Sunday receiver in a still-growing frame. And it wasn&#8217;t a gradual build &#8212; it was immediate. In his very first college game, each of his first two receptions went for touchdowns &#8212; an 84-yarder and a 55-yarder. 139 yards and two touchdowns on his first two collegiate catches. He made quite the first impression.</p><p>This piece is a case study on everything that followed. On how a teenager, fresh out of high school, somehow seemingly emerged as a legitimate No. 1 option in one of the country&#8217;s most demanding programs.</p><p>This isn&#8217;t just about stats, though the 48 catches, 865 yards, and eight touchdowns paint a clear picture. It&#8217;s about how he gets open. Why he wins. And what the film reveals about where he&#8217;s headed next.</p><p>Let&#8217;s dive in.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>A tightrope walker's body control</h2><p>Let's start here.</p><p>There's a special kind of silence, momentarily, when a receiver makes a catch that shouldn't be possible.</p><p>That was the scene in Nashville, Tenn., when Williams hauled in a deep sideline shot against Vanderbilt &#8212; a play that left jaws on the turf. The throw was slightly underthrown, and the corner was in-phase, trailing him just a stride behind. But Williams leapt &#8212; covering nearly six yards in the air &#8212; twisted his upper body mid-flight while his legs stayed square in front of him, and somehow hauled in the ball over the defender's head.</p><p>On the Alabama sideline, hands and clipboards were raised and suspended in the air as if time itself paused. The adoring crowd, albeit Vanderbilt's, couldn&#8217;t help but murmur in admiration before remembering their loyalty to the Commodores.</p><p>That wasn&#8217;t the end of the play, though. </p><p>He then landed without breaking stride, tiptoed the boundary, and slipped past the pursuing safety for a 58-yard touchdown.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;096b405b-e67d-46ce-a435-9273ae8de5fc&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>You see that body control again and again on film. </p><p>Against Oklahoma, there was a catch that didn&#8217;t even make the box score &#8212; but it might&#8217;ve been one of the most absurd displays of body control all season. </p><p>It was 4th and 3, Alabama trailing. Quarterback Jalen Milroe took a shot to the right corner of the end zone &#8212; a back-shoulder ball fading toward the boundary. Williams was running full speed, head turned inside toward the left, when the ball arrived.</p><p>Mid-stride, he planted, swiveled back toward the sideline, and elevated. His torso twisted to meet the ball, arms reaching over his shoulder, while his lower body angled outward like a counterweight &#8212; one leg stretched horizontally, the other stabbing the turf. He looked like a dancer caught mid-pirouette.</p><p>It was called back for illegal touching, but the play still lives on tape as a masterclass in balance, tracking, and control. A near-impossible catch made all too casually.</p><p>His tape is littered with these displays of body control. This kind of spatial awareness can&#8217;t be overstated. Body control is one of the few wide receiver traits that is hard to improve. Either you have it or you don&#8217;t. Williams has it in spades.</p><p>It&#8217;s balletic. </p><h2>Slippery and untouchable in the open field</h2><p>There&#8217;s contact. Then there&#8217;s <em>almost</em> contact. </p><p>Williams lives in the space between the two.</p><p>The first time you watch him on film, it&#8217;s easy to think he&#8217;s just a burner. Defenders always seem like they&#8217;re trying to catch up. While that&#8217;s the case a lot of the time, I ask you to go a layer deeper. Watch how often defenders get their hands on him &#8212; and still can&#8217;t finish the play. He&#8217;s not just fast. He&#8217;s elusive, crafty, and spatially brilliant. He can make you miss in a phone booth.</p><p>E.g., 1st-and-10 from Vanderbilt&#8217;s 38-yard line, and Williams was lined up in the slot. He burst off the line, sold a hard outside release, and snapped inside on a post. The corner bit, jumping left. Williams cut inside, made the catch just short of the sticks, and turned upfield.</p><p>Two defenders converged. He planted with his right foot, faked a spin, then juked back toward the middle. The defenders collided, crashing into each other where Williams had just been. He slipped through, picked up four more yards, and moved the chains.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;0031b4aa-7fdc-4749-bf59-276529bac36d&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>It was the kind of play you file under both route-running and elusiveness. A simple play turned into a highlight reel.</p><p>Take his touchdown against USF as another example. It&#8217;s a simple 8-yard hitch &#8212; nothing flashy on the surface. The corner was playing soft zone, eyes in the backfield. Williams jogged down, turned, and made the catch. It should&#8217;ve been a routine gain. But the moment he pivoted upfield, everything changed.</p><p>The corner that played back closed downhill, expecting a quick wrap-up. Williams took two steps to his right and simply ran past him, exploding toward the sideline. No wasted motion. Just burst, spatial awareness, and instincts. He didn&#8217;t just avoid the tackle &#8212; he made the defender miss completely, like he was never there.</p><p>A basic hitch route became a 43-yard touchdown &#8212; not because of the design, but because of who he is with the ball in his hands.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;cc7d9135-dc9e-4680-b29a-a57f4947dc10&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><h2>A route technician in the making</h2><p>For a 17-year-old still adjusting to SEC defenses, Ryan Williams already shows the kind of route-running nuance you typically only see from guys who&#8217;ve been doing it for a while. </p><p>Alabama was pinned at its own 6-yard line against Tennessee, and Williams gave them three chances to breathe.</p><p>It started at the line of scrimmage. Press coverage, boundary side (bottom of the screen). Williams jabbed outside, sold it just enough, then snapped back inside with a sharp, compact cut that left the corner leaning. That was win number one. Then, as he climbed vertically, he felt the DB clinging to his right hip &#8212; so he set him up again. A subtle head fake outside. A second inside break. Win number two.</p><p>By then, Milroe was already under pressure. The pocket had started to collapse. Realizing this, he worked back toward the sideline, and his speed simply outmatched the cornerback who was already in recovery mode. He gave Milroe another open look &#8212; win number three.</p><p>Unfortunately, this pass fell incomplete. Milroe scrambled, threw late and missed wide. One of those forgettable incompletions that doesn&#8217;t show up in the box score. But on tape, it&#8217;s a glimpse of just how good Williams already is. Route feel, body control, situational awareness &#8212; all there, all polished, all wasted on a play that should&#8217;ve been a big gain.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;fdf6cc8b-2a4c-44c4-889a-887de0b4cc0e&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>There&#8217;s an advanced understanding of leverage baked into his game. On post routes, he knows how to press vertically just long enough to hold the DB. On curls, he works back to the ball with urgency. That&#8217;s trust-building stuff for a quarterback. He doesn&#8217;t drift or round off routes. He hits his marks with timing and purpose.</p><p>Here, against Georgia, Williams was isolated at the top of the screen, backside of a Y crosser.</p><p>He ran a post-curl &#8212; brutal for corners who fear getting beat deep. This one did. Respecting Williams&#8217; speed, he played with a soft cushion, bailing early. Williams saw it, sold the post just long enough to widen the gap, then snapped off the curl with ease &#8212; smooth, sharp, no wasted motion.</p><p>He caught the ball with plenty of room and immediately went to work. He faked inside, then out, then went back in, making a defender fall in the process. He turned a routine pitch-and-catch into a solid gain. Nothing fancy, save for the after-the-catch creativity. Just clean separation, timing, and the kind of spatial awareness that turns fear into leverage.</p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;d12578ee-28e0-4173-993b-119918c81bc9&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>By no means is he a finished product in the route running department, but plays like these represent his ceiling. And as he continues to face SEC defensive backs, you begin to understand just how terrifying his potential is &#8212; a teenager with NFL-caliber instincts who's only scratching the surface of his route tree.</p><h2>No moment is too big for him</h2><p>Some players ask for the moment. Others are the moment.</p><p>Two minutes left. Down one point. Alabama needed a play. Georgia had just scored to make it 34&#8211;33. Milroe jogged out with battle-tested nerves, scanning a defense that had contained him for most of the fourth quarter. And lined up wide right was Williams, who already had five catches for 102 yards.</p><p>What happened next? Williams <em>became</em> the moment, displaying every aspect of his game we&#8217;ve talked about up until now, the skills that make him one of the best in college football.</p><p>The call was from their own 25-yard line: from the gun, a go route for Williams. Milroe let it fly, but it was underthrown. Williams was running full speed down the right boundary when he snapped his head around, and elevated &#8212; not just vertically, but into the spotlight. He turned, twisted mid-air, and brought the ball down.</p><p>The catch alone was impressive. What ensued was even more.</p><p>Because when he landed, Williams didn&#8217;t stop. He ran a few more steps, then halted &#8212; <em>hard</em>. He planted his left foot, jumped back, and spun toward the sideline in slow motion. The two Georgia defenders who pursued him collided like dominoes.</p><p>Then he was gone.</p><p>A 35-yard sprint.  </p><p>Williams coasted into the end zone, dropped the ball, and hit his usual touchdown celebration. </p><p>Final score: Alabama 41, Georgia 34. </p><div class="native-video-embed" data-component-name="VideoPlaceholder" data-attrs="{&quot;mediaUploadId&quot;:&quot;fef0a0e5-dc55-4925-8a73-cf92892ad866&quot;,&quot;duration&quot;:null}"></div><p>This was the game &#8212; and the defining play &#8212; that echoed throughout the college football season, the moment Williams truly announced himself as a superstar on the national stage. When Alabama needed a hero, their youngest player delivered a moment that would be talked about the rest of the season, transforming from a freshman phenom to a program legend in a single, game-winning catch and run.</p><h2>Ryan Williams is inevitable</h2><p>The hardest part about writing this is remembering he&#8217;s still 17.</p><p>And yes, I mentioned his age again. I&#8217;ll never stop. Few players arrive in college football with this much pressure, and fewer exceed every expectation. He did, as the youngest player in the FBS.</p><p>What comes next feels less like projection and more like inevitability. As he enters his sophomore season, Williams won&#8217;t just be Alabama&#8217;s top receiving option &#8212; he&#8217;ll be a focal point for every defensive coordinator on the schedule. Opponents will roll coverages. They&#8217;ll bracket him. But it may not matter. Because the tools that allowed him to thrive as a high schooler playing against SEC corners &#8212; speed, body control, spatial intelligence, and advanced route feel &#8212; are only sharpening with experience.</p><p>Physically, there&#8217;s still room to grow. Williams is wiry, slippery, and explosive &#8212; but there&#8217;s a clear runway for him to get stronger. To add the kind of core strength and durability that lets you hold up across a long SEC season, fight through contact, and win in traffic. The tape says he&#8217;s already elite. A few more pounds of muscle might make him unguardable.</p><p>He&#8217;s tracking toward the top of the 2027 NFL Draft. And if he stays healthy and keeps climbing? You&#8217;re looking at a near-lock for the top 10. He has the hallmarks of such &#8212; the speed, the polish, the production, and the instincts. He checks almost every box.</p><p>What Alabama has is rare. What college football fans have is at least two more years to watch a star ascend in real time. And what the NFL will have &#8212; soon enough &#8212; is another problem to solve.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/beyond-his-years-how-17-year-old?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/beyond-his-years-how-17-year-old?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Can we let Arch Manning actually play first?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Yes, he looks like the next blue-chip quarterback prospect. But we've only seen flashes in limited time. Let's slow down the hype train for a second.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/can-we-let-arch-manning-actually</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/can-we-let-arch-manning-actually</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 08 May 2025 18:56:49 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Arch Manning has thrown 95 passes in college. Two starts. Nine touchdowns. A pair of picks.</p><p>That&#8217;s the full stat line &#8212; a r&#233;sum&#233; that&#8217;s just begun. Yet somehow, he&#8217;s already a fixture atop way-too-early 2026 mock drafts. Innately. The surname draws attention. The highlights tantalize. The legend looms. </p><p>I get it.</p><p>But when you strip away the hype, we still don't really know how good he is. And that, not the buzz, is what&#8217;s most interesting.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>OK, Manning might be really, really good. That much is fair. He&#8217;s shown it &#8212; in flashes. He made smart reads, threw with timing and accuracy, showed off his surprising athleticism and speed, and looked in control during his limited playing time. He's not some nepotism beneficiary. He can play. He has elite NFL traits. You get why the buzz exists.</p><p>But he needs to play <em>more.</em></p><p>This is where football fans get ahead of themselves. We don&#8217;t just love potential anymore &#8212; we crown it. We wrap it in projections and declare it ready for the biggest stage before it&#8217;s even taken root. Manning is the latest example. The last name. The pedigree. The press. He was anointed before he even picked a college. And now that he&#8217;s taken a few meaningful snaps and didn&#8217;t trip over himself&#8230;He must be him, right?</p><p>It&#8217;s understandable. The football world loves a good quarterback story, and there&#8217;s none more made-for-TV than the young Manning. His last name is the golden ticket. But he, despite all that noise, has taken the slow road, so he hasn&#8217;t had a ton of time on the field. He sat his freshman season behind Quinn Ewers with no complaints. He waited. He learned. When Ewers missed time late in the 2023 season, Maalik Murphy was the next man up, not Texas&#8217; heralded savior in waiting. </p><p>Then Murphy transferred, Ewers returned, and Manning moved up to No. 2 on the depth chart.</p><p>When Ewers missed two games with a torn oblique last season, Manning stepped in and...well, let's be honest about what we saw. His first start against Louisiana-Monroe had some struggles &#8212; two interceptions &#8212; despite facing below-average competition. It didn&#8217;t matter, though. Texas still ended up bludgeoning them 51-3. In his second start against Mississippi State, he looked much better, completing 26 of his 31 passes for 324 yards and two scores. He looked much calmer in the pocket, working through his progressions and showing off his accuracy on short, intermediate, and deep throws. Texas won 35-13. But again, the competition was lackluster, to say the least. So yes, there were flashes in those games, moments where you could see the potential everyone talks about. But two games against subpar competition aren't exactly a definitive r&#233;sum&#233; for all this NFL draft hype.</p><p>So let&#8217;s not pretend like we&#8217;ve already seen the full picture. The body of work is too small. You need to see more than 95 dropbacks before inserting him into the 2026 No. 1 pick discourse, especially when he has three years of eligibility remaining. </p><p>Because even if you want Arch Manning to be the guy &#8212; and who doesn&#8217;t? &#8212; you have to understand the Mannings themselves have never rushed greatness. His uncles, Peyton and Eli Manning, stayed for four seasons at Tennessee and Ole Miss before opting to declare for the NFL draft. They didn&#8217;t let hype dictate development. They developed before moving on. That patience, that process, is part of the family blueprint.</p><p>It should be for Arch, too.</p><p>We&#8217;ll see more of Manning this fall, as he&#8217;s now locked in as Texas&#8217; starter. We&#8217;ll see how he handles pressure and what happens when SEC defenses throw disguises at him that he's never seen on film. You don't find that out in spring games. You find that out when you're down seven with two minutes left, and 90,000 people are screaming for your head.</p><p>There&#8217;s a version of this story where he becomes everything he&#8217;s projected to be &#8212; a franchise quarterback, a Manning who charts his own path to stardom, maybe even becoming the best one yet. I hope so. I hope he has a great career. But right now, he&#8217;s still becoming. He&#8217;s still inexperienced.</p><p>That&#8217;s the part we should focus on right now.</p><p>Not the draft slot that may be one, two, or three years away. The actual growth. The in-game reps. Because that&#8217;s what&#8217;s missing right now &#8212; volume. To accurately project, you need data. A lot more of it than he currently has. </p><p>So let&#8217;s cool it for a moment. Yes, Manning looks like he could be special, and we&#8217;re all excited to see more from him. But until we see it, the early NFL projections are merely guesswork.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/can-we-let-arch-manning-actually?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/can-we-let-arch-manning-actually?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Dynasty fantasy football: 2025 2-round mock draft]]></title><description><![CDATA[No quarterbacks go in the first round of this exercise.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/dynasty-fantasy-football-2025-2-round</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/dynasty-fantasy-football-2025-2-round</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 06 May 2025 19:56:01 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve been a fantasy football addict for as long as I can remember &#8212; mock drafts in July, waking up at 3:00 a.m. on Wednesday morning to see if my waivers went through, arguing with friends over collusion or asinine trade offers. </p><p>But somehow, I&#8217;ve never actually written about it. Until now.</p><p>This is my first piece in the fantasy space, and like most of you reading, I&#8217;m here because I love the puzzle &#8212; and since I&#8217;m just getting into dynasty, and have long been an NFL draft sicko, I figured I&#8217;ll start there. </p><p>Dynasty forces you to care about coaching fits, contract years, and third-string rookies. It rewards those who can balance long-term projection with short-term value. And in 2025, we get a class full of ambiguity &#8212; plenty of talent, but even more questions. That makes it the perfect time to dig in, get uncomfortable, and try to find the guys who&#8217;ll carry your roster three years from now.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2><strong>Round 1</strong></h2><h3>1.01 &#8211; Ashton Jeanty, RB, Las Vegas Raiders</h3><p>There&#8217;s little debate here. Jeanty is the best blend of production, skill set, and opportunity in this class. He&#8217;s not just explosive &#8212; he&#8217;s efficient, decisive, and comfortable as a pass catcher. And in a Pete Carroll offense that loves to pound the rock, Jeanty is a perfect fit.</p><h3>1.02 &#8211; Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Carolina Panthers</h3><p>McMillan checks every box: size, route-running, and a knack for contested catches. He profiles as an outside receiver who can step into a WR1 role in an offense looking for a focal point &#8212; that&#8217;s Carolina. This is the kind of pick you feel good about five years from now.</p><h3>1.03 &#8211; Omarion Hampton, RB, Los Angeles Chargers</h3><p>Hampton&#8217;s rise has been steady, not flashy. He runs angry but controlled, with enough wiggle to keep defenders off-balance. He&#8217;s built to handle volume, which he most likely will under Jim Harbaugh.</p><h3>1.04 &#8211; Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars</h3><p>Dynasty managers will need to gamble a little here &#8212; but Hunter&#8217;s ceiling is worth it. If he&#8217;s used primarily on offense, which I think he will, he could become a weekly difference-maker. He has rare movement skills and ball tracking ability, and there&#8217;s real hope he lands in a scheme that lets him fully develop as a receiver.</p><h3>1.05 &#8211; Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns</h3><p>Judkins may not have the long speed scouts obsess over, but he&#8217;s instinctive and physical. At Ohio State, he showed he can thrive in a power run game, and his ability to churn out tough yards should translate well to the NFL. Cleveland took him early in the second round. He seems to be a dependable RB2 with upside.</p><h3>1.06 &#8211; TreVeyon Henderson, RB, New England Patriots</h3><p>Henderson&#8217;s story has peaks and valleys. At his best, he&#8217;s electric in the open field with real third-down potential. He doesn&#8217;t need 20 touches to change a game. Though he dealt with injuries in college. In PPR leagues, especially, that receiving ability makes him well worth a first-round pick.</p><h3>1.07 &#8211; Tyler Warren, TE, Indianapolis Colts</h3><p>Warren quietly had one of the most productive college seasons we&#8217;ve seen from a tight end in a while. His combination of size and fluidity gives him a shot to be a top-five fantasy tight end. </p><h3>1.08 &#8211; Matthew Golden, WR, Green Bay Packers</h3><p>Golden isn&#8217;t flashy, but he&#8217;s steady and technically sound. The Packers spent a first-round pick on him &#8212; the first time since 2002 &#8212; so it&#8217;s fair to surmise he&#8217;ll likely be atop the depth chart early. Think WR2 with occasional WR1 weeks. </p><h3>1.09 &#8211; RJ Harvey, RB, Denver Broncos</h3><p>Harvey&#8217;s film shows a back who&#8217;s just tough to tackle. Compact build, good contact balance, and underrated vision. This fit was the best-case scenario, as Sean Payton has had a history of turning smaller, quick-hitting running backs into greats. He might not be a splashy name, but he&#8217;s a strong bet to be productive in an early role. You draft him to outscore expectations.</p><h3>1.10 &#8211; Emeka Egbuka, WR, Tampa Bay Bucaneeers</h3><p>Egbuka slides here not because of talent, but because of the landing spot. Still, his floor is high &#8212; he&#8217;s a dependable route-runner who can win in the short-to-intermediate game. He&#8217;s the kind of guy who sticks on dynasty rosters for years.</p><h3>1.11 &#8211; Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears</h3><p>Burden&#8217;s stock dipped a bit after a substandard 2024 season, but he&#8217;s still a dangerous player with the ball in his hands. Like Egbuka, he lands in a crowded receiving room. He thrives after the catch and could flourish in a creative offense. Good thing for him is that in a Ben Johnson-led offense, everyone gets their fair share of touches due to its creativity.</p><h3>1.12 &#8211; Colston Loveland, TE, Chicago Bears</h3><p>Add one more to the crowded Bears&#8217; receiving room. However, Loveland, the No. 10 pick, should see a ton of targets in an offense that schemed tight end Sam LaPorta open quite a bit. </p><h2><strong>Round 2</strong></h2><h3>2.01 &#8211; Cam Ward, QB, Tennessee Titans</h3><p>Ward lands in Tennessee as the likely starter the moment training camp begins. He&#8217;s got the arm talent to threaten all three levels and enough mobility to extend plays. The Titans&#8217; offense is still in flux, but Ward has dual-threat upside with a live arm that gives him a fantasy ceiling worth betting on in Round 2.</p><h3>2.02 &#8211; Kaleb Johnson, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers</h3><p>This one feels like a Steelers back through and through. Johnson runs with intent &#8212; downhill, physical, and relentless. In Pittsburgh, he&#8217;s got a chance to compete early and could eventually carve out a role similar to what Najee Harris once held. He&#8217;s the kind of back who could take over a backfield and quietly deliver RB2 value.</p><h3>2.03 &#8211; Jack Bech, WR, Las Vegas Raiders</h3><p>Vegas needs bodies at wide receiver, and Bech brings toughness and hands to a depth chart that&#8217;s thin behind Jakobi Meyers. He&#8217;s not a burner, but he competes through contact and knows how to get open. This is a classic Round 2 pick: not a star, but someone who could stick and produce if the opportunity opens up.</p><h3>2.04 &#8211; Jayden Higgins, WR, Houston Texans</h3><p>Higgins walks into a promising opportunity. The Texans love to spread it out, and Higgins has the frame and red-zone traits to start early. He&#8217;s Nico Collins 2.0. With Tank Dell missing time, Higgins could see a lot of early targets. In dynasty, those are the kinds of bets that can pay off quietly and suddenly.</p><h3>2.05 &#8211; Tre Harris, WR, Los Angeles Chargers</h3><p>A great landing spot. The Chargers are rebuilding their receiver room, and Harris brings a physicality that this new group needs. He&#8217;s not polished yet, but if he clicks with Justin Herbert, he could carve out a consistent outside role. There&#8217;s WR3/4 potential here with upside depending on development.</p><h3>2.06 &#8211; Jalen Milroe, QB, Seattle Seahawks</h3><p>Milroe is a swing-for-the-fences pick in dynasty. He&#8217;ll sit behind Sam Darnold, who the Seahawks just gave a pretty penny to, but his deep ball and legs give him a fantasy profile that could explode with the right opportunity. The fit in Seattle allows him time to grow, and if he does, you might have a Jalen Hurts-type late bloomer on your hands.</p><h3>2.07 &#8211; Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants</h3><p>Skattebo is a throwback. Stocky, powerful, and built to grind out yards. If he earns the trust of the coaching staff, he could steal short-yardage work and become a sneaky PPR contributor. He&#8217;ll win dirty &#8212; and that&#8217;s not a bad thing in Round 2.</p><h3>2.08 &#8211; Terrance Ferguson, TE, Los Angeles Rams</h3><p>Ferguson lands in a Sean McVay system that knows how to scheme tight ends open. He&#8217;s a smooth mover with reliable hands, and while he won&#8217;t be the focal point, his role could grow as Matthew Stafford leans on quicker reads. In tight end-premium leagues, this is excellent value.</p><h3>2.09 &#8211; Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars</h3><p>Tuten walks into a great fit in Jacksonville, with the same coach, Liam Coen, who made Bucky Irving into a fantasy all-star last season. Travis Etienne is still the guy (for now), but Tuten&#8217;s skill set as a receiver and change-of-pace option could carve out an early passing-down role. </p><h3>2.10 &#8211; Jaxson Dart, QB, New York Giants</h3><p>Dart&#8217;s tough, has a quick release, and is fearless over the middle &#8212; but he&#8217;ll need time. With Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston in front of him &#8212; two not-so-enticing options &#8212; Dart could get a chance by December. In superflex leagues, this is a sharp stash. In 1QB formats, he&#8217;s a long play, but one with some upside.</p><h3>2.11 &#8211; Dylan Sampson, RB, Cleveland Browns</h3><p>Cleveland drafted Judkins two rounds earlier, but Sampson offers something different. He&#8217;s explosive, decisive, and dangerous in space. He could thrive as a third-down option or a spark plug in a backfield-by-committee. If the touches come, the fantasy points should follow.</p><h3>2.12 - Mason Taylor, TE, New York Jets</h3><p>Taylor, son of Hall-of-Famer Jason Taylor, projects to be the Jets&#8217; starter from the get-go. A reliable receiver and an above-average blocker, he&#8217;ll be hard to keep off the field. And in an offense that needs more playmakers, Taylor could become a safety blanket between the numbers for quarterback Justin Fields. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/dynasty-fantasy-football-2025-2-round?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/dynasty-fantasy-football-2025-2-round?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[2025 NFL Draft: My 3 favorite picks in every round]]></title><description><![CDATA[The 2025 NFL Draft is in the history books.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 01 May 2025 12:05:22 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg" width="1242" height="828" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:828,&quot;width&quot;:1242,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide" title="Big boards to mock drafts: Your 2025 NFL Draft online resource guide" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!g51L!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F1c9f05e7-6f40-4299-8662-ab7e6e6814cd_1242x828.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>The 2025 NFL Draft is in the history books. </p><p>What a fantastic weekend it was. Draft watchers saw it all: aggressive trades, surprising slides, and exceptional value picks. </p><p>After a few days to digest all of the selections, I wanted to share the three picks I liked the most from each of the seven rounds. These are based on value and fit, so not necessarily the best players, but the best <em>picks</em>. </p><p>Let&#8217;s start with James Gladstone&#8217;s epic first trade of his general manager tenure. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Subscribe!</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><div><hr></div><h2>Round 1</h2><h3>Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 2) </h3><p>The Jaguars stunned everyone by jumping up to No. 2 and swinging big on perhaps the most versatile talent in the draft. Hunter is an electric playmaker on both sides of the ball, and Jacksonville seems intent on letting him continue his two-way impact, though they&#8217;ve stated he&#8217;ll be a wide receiver first. He instantly forms one of the NFL&#8217;s best wide receiver duos with Brian Thomas Jr. It&#8217;s rare to see a team bet this boldly on a unicorn, and even rarer when it makes this much sense.</p><h3>Jahdae Barron, CB, Denver Broncos (No. 21)</h3><p>Cornerback didn&#8217;t scream need, but the Broncos didn&#8217;t care &#8212; and that&#8217;s exactly the right mindset when you&#8217;re staring down Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert twice a year. Barron, the 2024 Jim Thorpe Award winner, can play outside, inside, down in the box, wherever you need him. He&#8217;s a ballhawk who wore multiple hats at Texas. On paper, this defense starts to look terrifying. </p><h3>Jihaad Campbell, LB, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 31)</h3><p>This pick falls in line with general manager Howie Roseman scooping up players who fall further than they should. Campbell was perceived by many as a top-15 player in the class, but after injury considerations, specifically the labrum surgery he underwent after the combine, he fell further than expected. The Eagles won&#8217;t need him in Week 1, so they felt comfortable taking the risk. The eventual pairing of him and Zack Baun will be scary.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 2</h2><h3>Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Dallas Cowboys (No. 44)</h3><p>I thought Ezeiruaku would go in the first round. He&#8217;s a smooth, long, instinctive pass rusher who finished second in the FBS in sacks (16.5) and first in pressures (60). Dallas needed more juice up front, and Ezeiruaku should thrive with attention drawn to Micah Parsons.</p><h3>Will Johnson, CB, Arizona Cardinals (No. 47)</h3><p>Concerns about Johnson&#8217;s knee knocked him out of the top-20 conversation, but this was still a blue-chip cornerback talent when healthy. He has great size, awareness, and ball skills. Arizona made a smart bet on upside at a position of need. </p><h3>Trey Amos, CB, Washington Commanders (No. 61)</h3><p>Amos didn&#8217;t get the same attention as some other corners in this class, but his combination of length and movement skills flashed throughout the pre-draft process. He could push for playing time right away in a Washington secondary that lacks depth.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 3</h2><h3>Darius Alexander, DT, New York Giants (No. 65)</h3><p>The Giants used their first pick on Abdul Carter, the ferocious pass-rusher from Penn State who&#8217;ll pair nicely with Brian Burns. Here, they continue to bolster their defensive line even more. A riser through the pre-draft cycle, Alexander adds size, explosiveness, and interior pass-rush potential to a Giants front that needed more juice alongside Dexter Lawrence. This was a strong value in the early third.</p><h3>Xavier Watts, S, Atlanta Falcons (No. 96)</h3><p>Watts was my favorite value of the entire Falcons&#8217; class. He led the FBS in interceptions (13) over the past two seasons and brings elite instincts and range on the back end. A true &#8220;ball magnet&#8221; with great vision and feel.</p><h3>Charles Grant, OT, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 99)</h3><p>Reports echoed that the Raiders may go offensive tackle at No. 6, but when Jeanty was there, he was the obvious choice. Grant was a top-50 player on my board due to his upside. Here, Grant is value paired with upside. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 4</h2><h3>Cam Skattebo, RB, New York Giants (No. 105)</h3><p>One of the most enjoyable watches in this class, Skattebo runs like a hammer with contact balance and violent urgency. He became the first FBS player since Christian McCaffrey (2015) to surpass 1,500 rushing yards and 500 receiving yards in a season. This is a great pairing with Tyrone Tracy Jr.</p><h3>Jack Kiser, LB, Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 107)</h3><p>Kiser was the heart of the Notre Dame defense &#8212; a rangy linebacker with great feel and high-end special-teams potential. He should be an instant contributor in Jacksonville&#8217;s third phase and could grow into a larger role defensively.</p><h3>Elic Ayomanor, WR, Tennessee Titans (No. 136)</h3><p>Of the three pass catchers Tennessee added for No. 1 pick Cam Ward on Saturday, Ayomanor was my favorite. Expected to go much higher, he fell to the end of the fourth round, and the Titans got themselves a steal. He has a great combination of size and speed. With an unappealing wide receiver room, Ayomanor should see the field early.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 5</h2><h3>Shedeur Sanders, QB, Cleveland Browns (No. 144)</h3><p>This shouldn&#8217;t surprise anyone. I think the entire country thought Sanders would go first or second round. There&#8217;s a real chance &#8212; if given a fair opportunity &#8212; he earns the No. 2 spot on the depth chart before Week 1 and is starting by November. The Browns have a lottery ticket in Sanders.</p><h3>Bradyn Swinson, Edge, New England Patriots (No. 146)</h3><p>Swinson didn&#8217;t dominate headlines, but he&#8217;s the kind of long, bendy edge rusher who usually doesn&#8217;t last this deep into Day 3. He&#8217;s a productive pass rusher who had 8.5 sacks and 13 tackles for loss last season. For a team reshaping its front seven, this is the kind of smart, forward-thinking bet that makes draft classes sing in hindsight.</p><h3>Marcus Mbow, OL, New York Giants (No. 154)</h3><p>Simply put, the Giants crushed it. Mbow in the fifth is an absolute steal. Giants GM Joe Schoen admitted he thought he&#8217;d have to choose between Skattebo and Mbow at pick No. 105. He ended up getting both &#8212; and that&#8217;s how you win the draft. Mbow is a nasty, heavy-handed right tackle who plays with grown-man strength and brings real starter traits. The Giants landed a player they genuinely valued a round or two earlier. That&#8217;s value, plain and simple.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 6</h2><h3>Will Howard, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers (No. 185)</h3><p>With the quarterback position still in question, Pittsburgh gets an experienced college starter with a big arm and good size. Howard has shown he can handle a pro-style system and offers value as a backup with long-term upside.</p><h3>Cameron Williams, OT, Philadelphia Eagles (No. 207)</h3><p>Williams was once projected to be a first-round pick during the 2024 season, but his stock dropped after his inexperience showed up in Texas&#8217; playoff run. Just a one-year starter for the Longhorns, Williams is definitely raw but enormous, with a wingspan that engulfs edge rushers. Still just 21, he&#8217;ll get to develop under Jeff Stoutland, which has been a launching pad for many late-round linemen before him.</p><h3>Tommy Mellott, QB/WR, Las Vegas Raiders (No. 213)</h3><p>A two-for-one special, Mellott, the dynamic former Montana State quarterback, is expected to move to wide receiver. He&#8217;s an explosive runner with real after-the-catch ability. Las Vegas might&#8217;ve found a creative offensive weapon in the late rounds.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Round 7</h2><h3>Jay Toia, DT, Dallas Cowboys (No. 217)</h3><p>Toia is a stout, powerful interior defender who can eat double teams and muddy up run lanes. He adds early-down toughness to a Cowboys front that needed more beef inside, because Mazi Smith has been underwhelming in his first two seasons. And in a division with Saquon Barkley, finding a guy who can simply stick his feet in the dirt and not get moved off the line of scrimmage in the run game is a must.</p><h3>Dan Jackson, S, Detoit Lions (No. 230)</h3><p>A steady presence on the back end, Jackson brings leadership and instincts from his time at Georgia. Detroit loves these types &#8212; high IQ, no-nonsense defenders who can help on teams and spot duty right away.</p><h3>Kyle Monangai, RB, Chicago Bears (No. 233)</h3><p>Monangai quietly had one of the best seasons in the Big Ten, leading the conference in rushing. He&#8217;s compact, tough, and seeks out contact in pass protection. He&#8217;ll play the David Montgomery role in Ben Johnson&#8217;s offense.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/2025-nfl-draft-my-3-favorite-picks?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Shedeur Sanders waited, watched, and now has to earn everything]]></title><description><![CDATA[After Sanders was -600 to be selected in the first round, he fell all the way to the fifth. Now, the 144th pick is the biggest story of the draft.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/shedeur-sanders-waited-watched-and</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/shedeur-sanders-waited-watched-and</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 29 Apr 2025 15:44:27 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp" width="1440" height="960" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:960,&quot;width&quot;:1440,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:269290,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/webp&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/i/162341859?img=https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp&quot;,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!nUqc!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2b422bc2-9f8c-4cb7-9d02-8e8bd1b67b7a_1440x960.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo credit: Jeff Roberson/AP Photo</figcaption></figure></div><p>It was supposed to be a coronation. Since the start of the 2024 season, Shedeur Sanders wasn&#8217;t just projected to go early in the 2025 NFL Draft &#8212; he was marketed as a quarterback you build a franchise around. His name alone sparked debate, sold jerseys, and lit up social media. And yet, when the cameras started rolling in Green Bay, and commissioner Roger Goodell and co. strode to the podium night after night, Sanders sat. Waiting. Watching.</p><p>Until finally, at 2:19 p.m. Saturday on Day 3, the Cleveland Browns chose him. Pick No. 144 in the 5th round. It ended a free fall that no one would have dared predict just six months ago.</p><p>Now, the real story begins.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2><strong>What happened?</strong></h2><p>There wasn&#8217;t one sole reason why Sanders fell. It was a slow bleed &#8212; a hundred small cuts behind the scenes &#8212; the kind of fall that happens when perception snowballs, and no one in the room wants to be the one to stick their neck out.</p><p>Supposedly, it was a myriad of things &#8212; a confluence of perception, politics, and old-school scouting stubbornness.</p><p>First, he skipped critical offseason checkpoints. Despite accepting an invitation to attend the East-West Shrine Bowl, he didn&#8217;t participate. He was also a non-participant at the NFL Combine. He gave no real chance for NFL teams to see him up close in a workout setting, save for his pro day and a private workout held for the New York Giants a week before the draft. He also refused visits with certain teams. His draft process was perhaps unlike any we&#8217;ll ever see from a quarterback again. Sanders gave teams very little to go on.</p><p>Second, there were whispers &#8212; true or not &#8212; about his interviews. Some teams came away believing Sanders was &#8220;cocky.&#8221; &#8220;Entitled.&#8221; &#8220;Disinterested.&#8221; NFL decision-makers, overwhelmingly old-school and uncomfortable with players who chart their own paths, didn&#8217;t exactly race to embrace Sanders&#8217; brash confidence. Fair? Maybe. Or maybe not. That&#8217;s for you to decide. But the NFL has always been more comfortable with quarterbacks who nod politely and say &#8220;yes, sir&#8221; than ones who build empires before they take a snap. Sanders &#8212; the brand, the NIL star, and the nationwide celebrity &#8212; was a curveball.</p><p>And deep down, you have to wonder: if his last name wasn&#8217;t Sanders, would those same criticisms have even stuck?</p><p>Third, and perhaps most importantly, some just didn&#8217;t see a transcendent trait on tape. He&#8217;s accurate, sure. He&#8217;s poised. He&#8217;s productive. He&#8217;s tough as nails. But he isn&#8217;t a 4.4 runner. He doesn&#8217;t have the strongest arm. He doesn&#8217;t throw lasers off his back foot across his body. He&#8217;s not the athlete Cam Ward, Jaxson Dart, and Jalen Milroe are. </p><p>So, when the stakes were highest and when jobs were on the line, the NFL did what it always does when it feels a little unsure.</p><p>It passed.</p><h2>Why the Browns finally pulled the trigger</h2><p>It wasn&#8217;t out of desperation. It was about value &#8212; pure and simple. It didn&#8217;t matter that the Browns took Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel two rounds earlier, which, to contradict the value discussion for a second, seemed like a bit of a reach.</p><p>For months, Sanders was talked about as a sure-fire first-round pick. A potential franchise quarterback in waiting.</p><p>And yet, when he kept falling&#8230; when the fourth round ended&#8230; when the fifth round ticked by and Sanders was still on the board, the Browns made the kind of move smart organizations make: they bet on talent at a discount.</p><p>But make no mistake: this pick didn&#8217;t come without tension.</p><p>When the cameras cut to Cleveland&#8217;s draft room after Sanders was selected, the energy was noticeably flat. No roaring applause. No fist pumps. No standing ovations you sometimes see when a front office lands &#8220;their guy.&#8221;</p><p>Now, war room footage isn't always gospel &#8212; sometimes the NFL's TV timing is off. Sometimes reactions are muted for various reasons. But it's hard to ignore the possibility that this wasn't a unanimous decision.</p><p>Ownership involvement? You can&#8217;t rule it out.</p><p>Sanders brings a different kind of value, not just on the field, but in the marketing department, too. His name alone moves the needle. He&#8217;s a star who can generate attention, sell tickets, and fill seats in a town that&#8217;s been desperate for quarterback hope.</p><p>Whether it was the front office, the coaching staff, or Dee and Jimmy Haslam themselves pounding the table, it&#8217;s clear the Browns decided the upside was too tempting to pass up any longer.</p><p>There&#8217;s no risk here. No expectations. No pressure. Sanders doesn&#8217;t have to be the savior. He just has to compete. Cleveland saw an opportunity to grab a player with starting-caliber upside for pennies on the dollar. A quarterback room that was already crowded could afford to bring in another lottery ticket, especially one with Sanders&#8217; pedigree.</p><h2><strong>What Sanders has to prove</strong></h2><p>Nothing will be handed to Sanders in Cleveland. But the Browns didn&#8217;t just bring him in to ride the bench, either. He&#8217;ll be dropped into a true quarterback competition, where survival isn&#8217;t promised and yesterday&#8217;s accomplishments mean nothing.</p><p>Sanders will enter a crowded quarterback room, competing with former first-round pick Kenny Pickett, who has a chip on his shoulder fresh off a year riding the bench in Philadelphia, and 40-year-old Joe Flacco, the ageless wonder who somehow keeps finding ways to win games. Also in the mix is fellow rookie Gabriel, the 5-foot-11 lefty who played a ton of college football, ending his six-year collegiate career in Eugene.</p><p>Sanders won&#8217;t be competing for marketing deals anymore. He&#8217;ll be competing for a job. A spot on the Browns&#8217; 53-man roster.</p><p>On the field, Sanders must prove he can speed up his progressions, make good decisions, and get rid of the ball when there&#8217;s nowhere to go &#8212; something NFL scouts openly criticized during his Colorado tenure. Every single rep will be judged. And every missed opportunity will be ammunition for someone else to climb the depth chart over him. </p><p>In the locker room, he'll need to shed any perception of entitlement and earn respect through grinding quietly.</p><p>That&#8217;s what Sanders will have to embrace: real, ruthless competition. No one cares about his last name now. Every quarterback in that room wants what he wants. </p><p>It&#8217;s worth acknowledging that, after Sanders&#8217; flaws were dissected on national television for all to formulate their own opinion on, he appears unfazed. He knows what he has to do. And it seems like he&#8217;s not shying away from it.</p><p>&#8220;I&#8217;m blessed,&#8221; Sanders said in an interview after he was drafted. &#8220;I know I have to clean up some things in my game. The main thing is proving [head coach Kevin] Stefanski and Mr. Berry right for picking me.&#8221;</p><p>His draft position isn&#8217;t the be-all and end-all. It&#8217;s actually just the beginning. </p><p>It&#8217;s now Sanders&#8217; time to write his own story.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/shedeur-sanders-waited-watched-and?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/shedeur-sanders-waited-watched-and?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Philadelphia Eagles 2025 NFL Draft guide: What to expect, picks, predictions, and more]]></title><description><![CDATA[On night one of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles will be picking at No.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/philadelphia-eagles-2025-nfl-draft</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/philadelphia-eagles-2025-nfl-draft</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2025 01:54:32 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg" width="1280" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:1280,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;Mock Draft Tracker: Who will the Eagles pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="Mock Draft Tracker: Who will the Eagles pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?" title="Mock Draft Tracker: Who will the Eagles pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!BF_K!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6ba4c574-3503-4550-a6a8-f7db5eaa4ca9_1280x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>On night one of the 2025 NFL Draft, the Philadelphia Eagles will be picking at No. 32. They have eight picks in this year&#8217;s draft.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><h2>Eagles&#8217; draft picks in 2025</h2><ul><li><p>Round 1, Pick 32</p></li><li><p>Round 2, Pick 64</p></li><li><p>Round 3, Pick 96</p></li><li><p>Round 4, Pick 134</p></li><li><p>Round 5, Pick 161 (via Houston Texans)</p></li><li><p>Round 5, Pick 164 (via Detroit Lions from Cleveland Browns)</p></li><li><p>Round 5, Pick 165 (via Washington Commanders)</p></li><li><p>Round 5, Pick 168 </p></li></ul><h2>NFL draft details</h2><ul><li><p>Round 1: April 24, 8 p.m. ET</p></li><li><p>Rounds 2-3: April 25, 7 p.m. ET</p></li><li><p>Rounds 4-7: April 26, noon ET</p></li></ul><h2>About the Eagles</h2><ul><li><p>Jeffrey Lurie - Owner</p></li><li><p>Howie Roseman - Executive Vice President/General Manager</p></li><li><p>Nick Sirianni - Head Coach</p></li><li><p>Michael Clay - Special Teams Coordinator</p></li><li><p>Vic Fangio - Defensive Coordinator</p></li><li><p>Kevin Patullo - Offensive Coordinator</p></li><li><p>Jemal Singleton - Running Backs/Assistant Head Coach</p></li><li><p>Parks Frazier - Passing Game Coordinator</p></li><li><p>Christian Parker - Passing Game Coordinator/Defensive Backs</p></li><li><p>Jeff Stoutland - Run Game Coordinator/Offensive Line</p></li><li><p>Clint Hurtt - Senior Defensive Assistant/Defensive Line</p></li><li><p>Roy Anderson - Cornerbacks Coach</p></li><li><p>Joe Kasper - Safeties Coach</p></li><li><p>Bobby King - Inside Linebackers Coach</p></li><li><p>Scot Loeffler - Quarterbacks Coach</p></li><li><p>Jason Michael - Tight Ends Coach</p></li><li><p>Aaron Moorehead - Wide Receivers Coach</p></li><li><p>Jeremiah Washburn - Defensive Ends/Outside Linebackers</p></li><li><p>Joe Pannunzio - Assistant Special Teams Coordinator</p></li><li><p>Greg Austin - Assistant Offensive Line Coach</p></li><li><p>Tyler Brown - Special Teams Assistant</p></li><li><p>Ronell Williams - Assistant Linebackers/Offensive Quality Control Coach</p></li><li><p>Tyler Yelk - Defensive Assistant</p></li><li><p>Eric Dickerson - Offensive Quality Control</p></li><li><p>Tyler Scudder - Defensive Quality Control</p></li><li><p>Montgomery VanGorder - Offensive Quality Control</p></li><li><p>Cole Peterson - Assistant to the Head Coach</p></li></ul><p>The Philadelphia Eagles enter the 2025 season firmly in their winning epoch, fresh off a decisive Super Bowl LIX win over the Kansas City Chiefs that signaled a reshuffling of the league's elite. Their approach this offseason was about stability more than splash. The Eagles extended key veterans Saquon Barkley, Zack Baun, and Lane Johnson, moves that reflect a commitment to retaining core pieces of the best team in franchise history to maximize the Super Bowl window.</p><p>Continuity also defines the coaching staff, though not without some reshuffling. With former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore departing for the New Orleans Saints head coach position&#8212;the second time in five years that Sirianni has seen his OC  hired away&#8212;quarterbacks coach Kevin Patullo was promoted from within. On defense, Vic Fangio remains, whose unit led the league in total defense in 2024 and was central to the team&#8217;s postseason success. Fangio&#8217;s return provides a rare sense of carryover on that side of the ball, but there will still be notable personnel changes.</p><p>The defensive front and secondary were both affected by cap-related departures. Milton Williams and Josh Sweat signed elsewhere after solid seasons in rotational and starting roles, respectively. In the secondary, Philadelphia lost both C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Isaiah Rodgers, leaving holes at safety and cornerback that will need to be addressed either through the draft or younger players already on the roster. </p><p>The Eagles return most of their offensive starters, save for Mekhi Becton and potentially Dallas Goedert. Heading into the draft, replenishing depth across the offensive line, defensive line, and secondary will most likely be focal points.</p><h2>&#8220;Red Star&#8221; Players</h2><p>The NFL draft is where "red flags" and "blue chips" dominate the conversation, but the Philadelphia Eagles have quietly built something different &#8212; a system that searches for the soul of a player, not just their abilities between the lines. They call it the "red star" designation, and it's become the backbone of how the franchise identifies players who truly belong in midnight green.</p><p>The Eagles&#8217; &#8220;red star&#8221; philosophy surfaced after the 2023 NFL Draft when Howie Roseman selected Illinois safety Sydney Brown with the 66th pick in 2023 and commented on it afterward.</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Sydney Brown was a passion player for a lot of people in this organization, he was a red star guy, and I think just a tremendous person with obviously really good athletic tools, leadership ability, and for us, just excited to get him in the building,&#8221; Eagles general manager Howie Roseman said.</p><p>&#8220;That's a guy who kind of exemplifies what it means to be an Eagle, so it's great character, captain, testing numbers, intelligence, plays the way it should be played, practices the way it should be played,&#8221; Roseman explained.</p></blockquote><p>Last year, the Eagles drafted five &#8220;red star&#8221; players, but only three of them have been publicized: Will Shipley, Jeremiah Trotter Jr., and Trevor Keegan were revealed.</p><h2>30 Visits</h2><p>As part of the pre-draft process, NFL teams are permitted to bring up to 30 prospects to their facility for official visits, known as &#8220;30 visits.&#8221; These are typically used to gather additional medical information, conduct in-depth interviews, and better assess a player&#8217;s fit within the team&#8217;s culture and scheme. While not every visit translates to draft-day interest, they often offer insight into a team&#8217;s priorities and potential targets.</p><p>Under Roseman, the Eagles have a history of making their intentions relatively transparent through these visits. In 2023, three of the seven players (Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, and Kelee Ringo) drafted had been among their 30 visits &#8212; a notable trend that continued in 2024. Five of nine players selected last year (Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean, Jalyx Hunt, Ainias Smith, and Johnny Wilson) were brought in on a 30-visit. These visits have become one of the clearer tea leaves to read in the lead-up to Philadelphia&#8217;s draft.</p><p>The Eagles often use these visits not only to evaluate projected early-round picks but also to dig deeper on mid- and late-round prospects they believe could outperform their draft slot. The consistency of that pattern suggests that when a prospect comes through the NovaCare Complex in March or April, there&#8217;s a legitimate chance he&#8217;ll hear his name called by Philadelphia later that month.</p><p>Here is a list of the Eagles&#8217; 30 visits:</p><ul><li><p>Georgia S Malaki Starks</p></li><li><p>Penn State LB Kobe King</p></li><li><p>Ohio State DT Tyleik Williams</p></li><li><p>USC CB Jaylin Smith</p></li><li><p>Penn State S Jaylen Reed</p></li><li><p>South Carolina DT T.J. Sanders</p></li><li><p>Ole Miss CB Trey Amos</p></li><li><p>Texas A&amp;M Edge Nic Scourton</p></li><li><p>Kansas State CB Jacob Parrish</p></li><li><p>Texas A&amp;M DT Shemar Turner</p></li><li><p>Georgia OG Dylan Fairchild</p></li><li><p>UCLA Edge Femi Oladejo</p></li><li><p>Ohio State OG Donovan Jackson</p></li><li><p>William &amp; Mary OT Charles Grant</p></li><li><p>Texas RB Jaydon Blue</p></li><li><p>Miami (FL) Edge Tyler Baron</p></li><li><p>Boston College Edge Donovan Ezeiruaku</p></li><li><p>SMU Edge Elijah Roberts</p></li><li><p>Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston</p></li><li><p>Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr.</p></li><li><p>Purdue OT Marcus Mbow</p></li><li><p>NC State OT Anthony Belton</p></li><li><p>Iowa State OT Jalen Travis</p></li><li><p>Penn State DB Kevin Winston Jr.</p></li><li><p>Ole Miss DT Walter Nolen</p></li></ul><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;8281e935-6d06-4c94-b4d0-37676e46d993&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;The 2025 NFL Draft is nearly a week away, and the picture is becoming clearer &#8212; at least a little. After months of tape, reading the opinions of scouts, and countless re-ranks in my head, I&#8217;m locking these in. But if there&#8217;s one thing that defines this class, it&#8217;s the lack of consensus. Outside of a few blue-chip talents, opinio&#8230;&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Gavin Riley's top 50 2025 NFL Draft prospects 2.0, plus top 5s at each position&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:200943049,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Gavin Riley&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;I like football &#8212; and I enjoy writing from time to time.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cdc8a7fe-3d67-488d-a313-e77aaee7cc2a_1090x1206.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2025-04-15T20:33:04.669Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F34333c33-afda-48e8-9831-5c749e0b9fe9_1210x600.jpeg&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:&quot;Rankings &amp; Mocks&quot;,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:161383517,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:null,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;Hail Mary&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><h2>Eagles&#8217; draft trends</h2><ul><li><p>Have drafted a player in attendance at the NFL draft four consecutive years</p></li><li><p>188 SEC players have been drafted by the Eagles</p></li><li><p>Howie Roseman, since 2010, has completed 41 draft-day trades</p></li><li><p>The Eagles have traded their original first-round pick in 5 of the last 6 years</p></li></ul><h2>Seven-round Eagles mock draft</h2><p><strong>Round 1, Pick 32: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College</strong></p><p>I firmly believe the Eagles will not be picking here &#8212; whether they move up or down, I have yet to decide. So, for the integrity of the rest of the seven-round mock, they stay at 32.</p><p>Ezeiruaku, 21 years old, is someone I believe Fangio will pound the table for. He's a technician with a nasty streak, showing off pass rush moves that make offensive tackles look silly. When you watch his tape, you see a guy who just refuses to be blocked for 60 minutes.</p><p>At 6-foot-2 and 247 pounds, he's not the biggest edge rusher in the class, but makes up for it with his length (34-inch arms) and natural leverage. He plays with good technique against the run, though he'll need to continue adding strength for the NFL level.</p><p>Ezeiruaku wins with technique, using calculated footwork and a variety of hand moves to defeat blockers. He turns the corner well and shows the ability to convert speed to power when needed. There's a maturity to his game that should translate well to the next level.</p><p><strong>Round 2, Pick 64: T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina</strong></p><p>Roseman loves to pluck players who stood out on top defenses. That&#8217;s the case here with Sanders.</p><p>Sanders didn&#8217;t take the traditional path, but he made the most of his time at South Carolina. A late arrival to the game, he found his footing across four seasons in a crowded, talented defensive line room, lining up just about everywhere and flashing more each year.</p><p>He&#8217;s long, springy, and shows real juice off the snap. There&#8217;s a rawness to his game, sure, but he&#8217;s got the kind of frame and flexibility that coaches love to mold. He can shoot gaps, hold up at the point, and string together moments that make you pause the tape.</p><p><strong>TRADE! Eagles send #90, #161, and #165 to Arizona for #78</strong></p><p><strong>Round 3, Pick 78: Harold Fannin Jr., TE, Bowling Green</strong></p><p>This is a direct result of the hiring of Scot Loeffler, who was Fannin&#8217;s head coach just five months ago. Assumably, the reason a 30 visit wasn&#8217;t used on Fannin was because they already had enough information with Loeffler now in the building.</p><p>Fannin, 20 years old, is coming off a historic season, shattering the record for most receptions and receiving yards by a tight end (117 catches, 1,555 yards). He&#8217;s undersized, but he holds his own as a blocker. Questions regarding his gait have arisen throughout the draft process. He runs unorthodox, duck-footed-like. But those issues didn&#8217;t seem to stop him from shredding Penn State&#8217;s and Texas A&amp;M&#8217;s pass defenses.</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;a96e7ec3-9d33-4098-9b36-138fc62c8826&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;He&#8217;s 6-foot-3, 241 pounds of the unconventional. Of confusion. Of contradiction. A tight end with a smaller frame, a power slot who isn&#8217;t fast by any means. A record-breaking pass catcher with the gait of a teenager playing backyard football.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;sm&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Harold Fannin Jr. is everything and nothing like a tight end&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:200943049,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Gavin Riley&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;I like football &#8212; and I enjoy writing from time to time.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cdc8a7fe-3d67-488d-a313-e77aaee7cc2a_1090x1206.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2025-04-09T23:52:57.972Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F86e23217-efae-4ca4-adea-a8a477d85f98_1024x703.jpeg&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/harold-fannin-jr-is-everything-and&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:&quot;Columns&quot;,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:160858862,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:null,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;Hail Mary&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><p><strong>Round 4, Pick 134: Jackson Slater, IOL, Sacramento State</strong></p><p>Slater represents the Eagles' typical mid-round approach to offensive line depth. At 6-foot-4 and 316 pounds, he brings positional versatility, having played both guard and center for the Hornets. </p><p>Coming from the FCS level, Slater dominated with a mean streak and advanced hand placement that belies his small-school background. </p><p>While he'll need time to adjust to NFL competition, his Senior Bowl performance against Power Five talent suggests the learning curve won't be steep, not to mention he&#8217;ll be attending Stoutland U.</p><p><strong>TRADE! Eagles send TE Dallas Goedert to the Indianapolis Colts for pick 151. </strong></p><p><strong>Round 5, Pick 151: Billy Bowman Jr., S, Oklahoma</strong></p><p>The trade of Goedert signals a philosophical shift, and the selection of Bowman speaks to the Eagles' desire to reinforce their secondary. At 5-foot-10 and 186 pounds, Bowman isn't the biggest safety, but he compensates with exceptional instincts and ball skills.</p><p>A three-year starter for the Sooners, Bowman recorded eight interceptions in his final season, including two returned for touchdowns. His twitch and change-of-direction ability allow him to excel in coverage, particularly against slot receivers. Though he can get overwhelmed by larger tight ends, Bowman is a willing tackler who takes smart angles to the ball.</p><p>Fangio will like Bowman's versatility &#8212; he can play traditional free safety, nickel corner, or even rotate down into the box on certain packages. With the departures in the secondary, Bowman should compete for significant playing time immediately on both defense and special teams.</p><p><strong>Round 5, Pick 164:  Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Edge, Georgia</strong></p><p>There's that Georgia connection again. Ingram-Dawkins continues Philadelphia's affinity for SEC defensive linemen, especially those battle-tested in the nation's premier conference. At 6-foot-5 and 276 pounds, he brings scheme versatility with the frame to play both edge and kick inside on passing downs.</p><p>Ingram-Dawkins never put up gaudy production for the Bulldogs (4.5 sacks in his final season), but that undersells his impact. He consistently created pressure and disruption while working within Georgia's rotational system. His first step is explosive, and he plays with natural leverage that allows him to split double teams.</p><p><strong>Round 5, Pick 168: Bhayshul Tuten, RB, Virginia Tech</strong></p><p>Even with Barkley's extension, Roseman continues his pattern of adding backfield depth late in drafts. Tuten, a transfer from North Carolina A&amp;T to Virginia Tech, brings elite speed (4.32 40-yard dash) and receiving ability to the Eagles' running back room.</p><p>At 5-foot-10 and 201 pounds, Tuten isn't built for between-the-tackles pounding, but that's not what Philadelphia is seeking here. His experience as a kick returner gives him immediate special-teams value, while his receiving skills  make him an intriguing third-down option.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/philadelphia-eagles-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/philadelphia-eagles-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gavin Riley's 2025 NFL mock draft 2.0: Final predictions before the main event]]></title><description><![CDATA[Spoiler: I hate it.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft-4df</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft-4df</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 24 Apr 2025 01:41:55 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg" width="1200" height="720" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:720,&quot;width&quot;:1200,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:null,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;The 2025 NFL draft: How to watch the action unfold - The Manual&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:null,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="The 2025 NFL draft: How to watch the action unfold - The Manual" title="The 2025 NFL draft: How to watch the action unfold - The Manual" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!VOen!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F25fe9208-136b-4ab1-8512-b47164d423aa_1200x720.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a></figure></div><p>Draft week is finally upon us, and the speculation can mercifully end as we get real answers instead of endless hypotheticals. This year was particularly challenging to predict due to there being varying opinions on the class. </p><p>Nevertheless, I've thrown my hat into the ring with one final mock draft, for better or worse. Let's see how spectacularly wrong I am.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2>1. Tennessee Titans: Cam Ward, QB, Miami</h2><p>This has been known for quite some time now.</p><h2>2. Cleveland Browns: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado</h2><p>Signs have indicated this is the direction the Browns will go. With Hunter demanding he&#8217;ll play both ways in the NFL, the Heisman Award winner fills two needs.</p><h2>3. New York Giants: Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State</h2><p>Last-minute homework on Shedeur Sanders won&#8217;t change my thought process. Take, who many consider, including myself, the best player in the draft despite it not being an immediate need. Perhaps in a corresponding move, the Giants trade Kayvon Thibodeaux, who has struggled to come into his own in New York.</p><h2>4. New England Patriots: Will Campbell, OT, LSU</h2><p>The left side of the Patriots&#8217; offensive line is horrendous, so why not protect your franchise quarterback&#8217;s blindside? People have warmed up to Campbell being successful at tackle, despite his arm length. And if that doesn&#8217;t work, he&#8217;ll move inside.</p><h2>5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State</h2><p>It&#8217;s a homecoming for the Jacksonville native. The Jaguars are, according to Bryan Broaddus, &#8220;looking for touchdowns.&#8221; Jeanty had 30 total touchdowns last season. Bar none, he&#8217;ll make an immediate impact for new head coach Liam Coen, who innately prioritizes a strong run game. </p><h2>6. Las Vegas Raiders: Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas</h2><p>With Jeanty snatched up by Jacksonville just one pick before, the Raiders pivot to addressing their offensive line woes. John Spytek knows the value of building through the trenches from his Tampa tenure, and Banks represents both an immediate starter and a cornerstone piece for the Raiders' future plans to protect Geno Smith and, eventually, his successor.</p><h2>7. New York Jets: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State</h2><p>The Jets will want to surround Justin Fields with weapons, and Warren brings uncommon versatility to the position. The versatile chess piece can line up anywhere on offense and creates matchup nightmares with his size and athleticism. The Jets passed on Brock Bowers last year &#8212; they don&#8217;t make that mistake again.</p><h2>8. Carolina Panthers: Jalon Walker, Edge/OLB, Georgia</h2><p>There&#8217;s a bit of a grey area when it comes to envisioning where Walker will line up defensively at the next level, but, simply put, he&#8217;s a baller. In search of any defensive help, the Panthers take perhaps their next Frankie Luvu, who they lost in the 2024 offseason.</p><h2>9. New Orleans Saints: Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia</h2><p>I understand the premonitions of quarterback here, but the Saints haven&#8217;t selected one since Archie Manning in 1971. Cameron Jordan isn&#8217;t getting any younger, so here they draft Williams, who brings a tantalizing toolkit off the edge with sky-high potential as a pass rusher. At worst, you&#8217;re getting a rock-solid run defender. </p><h2>10. Chicago Bears: Mason Graham, DT, Michigan</h2><p>Jeanty at five caused a bit of a fall for Graham, but his slide stops here. I think the Bears are very fond of Graham, who is considered a top-five player in the draft by many. If he&#8217;s here, this should be a no-brainer.</p><h2>11. San Francisco 49ers: Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss</h2><p>The 49ers need to revamp the defensive line. All it takes is one person to become enamored with Nolen&#8217;s upside. The very best version of Nolen is a top-11 prospect in the class.</p><h2>12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona</h2><p>Outside of Ceedee Lamb, what other weapons does Dallas have? McMillan is a prototypical X receiver with a wide catch radius. He&#8217;d be the perfect running mate for Lamb.</p><h2>13. Miami Dolphins: Armand Membou, OT, Missouri</h2><p>The Dolphins goal should be to keep Tua Tagovailoa upright, and that starts with protecting his blindside. Membou would be an immediate upgrade. I think he could go earlier than this, but here, the Dolphins get a player one of the best athletes in the draft.</p><h2>14. Indianapolis Colts: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan</h2><p>For a long time, the Colts have needed a reliable tight end. Loveland is a do-it-all player &#8212; he can line up inline, in the slot, and even outside. He possesses a rare blend of size, speed, and quickness.</p><h2>15. Atlanta Falcons: James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee</h2><p>The Falcons finally address the pass rush. Pearce may fall due to character questions, but he&#8217;s probably the second-best pure pass rusher in the draft. He has a high chance of hitting with Raheem Morris as head coach.</p><h2>16. Arizona Cardinals: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan </h2><p>The Cardinals desperately need secondary help, and Johnson is the elite cornerback prospect in this class. His combination of length, fluidity, and ball skills gives Arizona a potential shutdown corner who can match up with the NFC West's dangerous receiving corps from day one.</p><h2>17. Cincinnati Bengals: Mike Green, Edge, Marshall</h2><p>If Cincinnati is comfortable with the &#8220;character concerns,&#8221; Green would be an excellent selection. He led the FBS in sacks last year and was dominant at the Senior Bowl. If Cincinnati can work out the contract situation with Trey Hendrickson, the two would form a formidable duo.</p><h2>18. Seattle Seahawks: Grey Zabel, OL, North Dakota State</h2><p>Macdonald's philosophy of controlling the line of scrimmage makes Zabel an ideal target to shore up a Seattle offensive front that surrendered far too much pressure last season. The small-school standout dominated Senior Bowl week.</p><h2>19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jihaad Campbell, LB, Alabama</h2><p>Todd Bowles loves his defenders with versatility, and Campbell represents the prototype of the modern NFL linebacker with his blend of sideline-to-sideline range and pass-rushing prowess.</p><h2>20. Denver Broncos: TreVeon Henderson, RB, Ohio State</h2><p>The buzz is building for this pick to come to fruition, and I&#8217;m buying in, despite Omarion Hampton still being available. Henderson offers what Sean Payton looks for in a running back; he&#8217;s an elite pass catcher, an exceptional pass protector, and can hit a home run from anywhere on the field.</p><h2>21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado</h2><p>The slide stops! From a cultural standpoint, this is the best fit for Sanders. And while the Steelers await a decision from Aaron Rodgers, selecting a quarterback makes the most sense. From what&#8217;s been reported, Sanders&#8217; meeting with the Steelers went well, and head coach Mike Tomlin likes him a lot.</p><h2>22. Los Angeles Chargers: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan</h2><p>Harbaugh brings his Michigan monster to Los Angeles. Grant was personally recruited by Harbaugh out of high school and developed into a dominant interior force under his tutelage. This reunion makes perfect schematic sense &#8212; Grant's rare combination of size and quickness fills the Chargers' glaring need for a disruptive presence in the middle of their defensive front after the loss of Poona Ford.</p><h2>23. Green Bay Packers: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas</h2><p>Here, the Packers end their long-time drought of not selecting a wide receiver in the first round. They lack a reliable pass catcher. Insert Golden, whose draft stock has been skyrocketing after being the go-to guy in Texas&#8217; playoff run and running a sub-4.3 forty at the combine.</p><h2>24. Minnesota Vikings: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas</h2><p>The Vikings continue revamping their secondary with Barron, who brings the versatility Brian Flores covets. He can play inside or outside and isn't afraid to mix it up in run support. His competitive fire and ball skills give Minnesota a day-one starter who can match up with the diverse receiving threats in the NFC North.</p><h2>25. Houston Texans: Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama</h2><p>This is a DeMeco Ryans pick. Booker is a road-grader in the run game and brings much-needed interior protection for C.J. Stroud. His Alabama pedigree of technical refinement and nastiness will help elevate an offensive line that was one of the worst in football last season.</p><h2>26. Los Angeles Rams: Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky</h2><p>The Rams desperately need secondary help, and Hairston is a flat-out playmaker. He has a knack for finding the ball and making something happen with it. His combination of length, speed, and ball skills gives the Rams defense something they've been sorely missing since Jalen Ramsey's departure.</p><h2>27. Baltimore Ravens: Malaki Starks, S, Georgia</h2><p>This is exactly the type of value pick Baltimore always seems to land. Starks can do it all &#8212; play in the box, cover tight ends, and range as a centerfielder. Georgia defenders consistently translate well to the NFL, and Starks will be no different. He fits perfectly alongside Kyle Hamilton. This is a home run selection for a team that always seems to nail their first-round picks.</p><h2>28. Detroit Lions: Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon</h2><p>Another homecoming! Harmon, a Detroit native, is simply a playmaker on the defensive front. For a team that struggled to get after the quarterback last season, especially from the inside, Harmon is a perfect fit.</p><h2>29. Washington Commanders: Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&amp;M</h2><p>The box score surfers don&#8217;t love Stewart, but he absolutely warrants this selection. Personally, I think he should&#8217;ve gone higher. His relatively modest production doesn't tell the full story of his disruptive presence. He&#8217;s awesome.</p><h2>30. Buffalo Bills: Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss</h2><p>The Bills need to reload at cornerback after losing Tre'Davious White, and Amos is the perfect fit. The Ole Miss transfer brings impressive length and technique to a Bills defense that still has playoff aspirations despite losing several key veterans. Amos&#8217; physicality and route mirroring ability jump off tape. This is a classic Brandon Beane pick.</p><h2>31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State</h2><p>The entire world witnessed the Chiefs offensive line crumbled on the brightest stage. Simmons, had he not suffered a season-ending injury in week 5 of the 2024 season, would probably go much higher than this. He makes playing left tackle look easy. </p><h2>32. Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College</h2><p>The Eagles strike gold with Ezeiruaku somehow still being available at 32. Howie Roseman should sprint to the podium for this one. Ezeiruaku's production and athletic profile suggest he should have been long gone by now, but the Eagles once again benefit from a premier talent falling right into their lap.</p><p></p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft-4df?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft-4df?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gavin Riley's top 50 2025 NFL Draft prospects 2.0, plus top 5s at each position]]></title><description><![CDATA[The 2025 NFL Draft is nearly a week away, and the picture is becoming clearer &#8212; at least a little.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:33:04 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2025 NFL Draft is nearly a week away, and the picture is becoming clearer &#8212; at least a little. After months of tape, reading the opinions of scouts, and countless re-ranks in my head, I&#8217;m locking these in. But if there&#8217;s one thing that defines this class, it&#8217;s the lack of consensus. Outside of a few blue-chip talents, opinions are mixed. Player No. 10 on one team&#8217;s big board might be player No. 40 on another's.</p><p>It&#8217;s just that kind of year.</p><h2><strong>1. Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State</strong></h2><p>The No. 1 spot is the former Nittany Lion. Carter explodes off the ball with rare acceleration that stymies blockers. Watch his tape against the elite programs &#8212; USC, Ohio State, Notre Dame &#8212; he's a constant disruptor. His speed wins early, complemented by a swipe/rip combo. He immediately exploits oversetting tackles, darting inside for quick pressures. When QBs try escaping, Carter shows a natural instinct to redirect underneath. In back-side pursuits, he closes at a blurry speed.</p><h2><strong>2. Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado</strong></h2><p>Hunter is the most gifted two-way player since Deion Sanders, with elite instincts and ball skills at both receiver and corner. At CB, he&#8217;s sticky in coverage with elite ball skills. He changes direction like he's controlled by a joystick. At WR, he&#8217;s a polished route runner who easily creates separation. He can also climb the ladder for contested jump balls. He&#8217;s a transcendent talent who simply operates on a different level.</p><h2><strong>3. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State</strong></h2><p>Jeanty had one of the most absurd running back seasons in history, falling just 28 yards short of Barry Sanders&#8217; all-time rushing record. He has some of the best contact balance I&#8217;ve seen from a running back. He&#8217;ll be the focal point of the offense for whichever team selects him.</p><h2><strong>4. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State</strong></h2><p>If you&#8217;re looking for a complete offensive weapon, Warren is your guy. He burst onto the scene this past season with his incredible receiving skills and ferocious mentality as a blocker. Penn State lined Warren up everywhere. Whichever team drafts him is getting a versatile chess piece.</p><h2><strong>5. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan</strong></h2><p>Graham is an immovable force on the interior who combines elite power with surprising quickness for a man his size. He controls gaps with exceptional leverage and hand placement that makes him nearly impossible to move. He&#8217;s a dominant presence who consistently resets the line of scrimmage.</p><h2><strong>6. Will Campbell, OT, LSU</strong></h2><p>Campbell played left tackle at LSU, but analysts foresee a future at guard. Personally, I think he can stay at left tackle. His hand placement and sheer power make him my favorite offensive lineman in the draft. Watch his tape against Shemar Stewart, a potential top-15 pick &#8212; Campbell dominated.</p><h2><strong>7. Mike Green, Edge, Marshall</strong></h2><p>Green&#8217;s speed-to-power was evident in his 17-sack season for the Thundering Herd this past season. His ability to set up tackles with a deep arsenal of pass-rush moves is impressive. He has elite bend and an extremely high motor.</p><h2><strong>8. Jalon Walker, LB/Edge, Georgia</strong></h2><p>Walker is an explosive second-level defender who processes the game at an elite level. His sideline-to-sideline range and violent hands make him a force against both run and pass. He can diagnose plays pre-snap and teleport to the ball carrier on run plays.</p><h2><strong>9. Armand Membou, OT, Missouri</strong></h2><p>Membou combines massive power with surprisingly nimble feet in pass protection. He creates movement in the run game while maintaining excellent balance and anchor.</p><h2><strong>10. Shemar Stewart, Edge, Texas A&amp;M</strong></h2><p>Stewart&#8217;s ability to convert speed to power at his size (6-foot-5, 280 pounds) is different. He&#8217;s a freak. He didn&#8217;t have much production for the Aggies, but frankly, I don&#8217;t think teams will care too much.</p><h2><strong>11. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado</strong></h2><p>I sound like a broken record, but it bears repeating: Sanders' accuracy and ball placement are special. Cam Ward is the consensus QB1, but I like Sanders a little more. He lacks elite athleticism, and he doesn&#8217;t have &#8216;zip,&#8217; but he can surgically take his team downfield. He&#8217;s one of the most accurate quarterbacks in recent years, has the toughness of a long-time starter, and is the most pro-ready in the class.</p><h2><strong>12. Malaki Starks, S, Georgia</strong></h2><p>Starks wasn&#8217;t as effective as a playmaker in 2024, but he moves like a missile in the secondary with elite instincts and an explosive burst. He processes the game at an exceptional level, allowing him to play multiple positions with equal impact. His versatility and closing speed make him a defensive coordinator's dream.</p><h2><strong>13. Jihaad Campbell, LB/Edge, Alabama</strong></h2><p>Campbell has grown on me. He&#8217;s an absolute freak. Built like an old-school linebacker that moves like a safety, Campbell can rush the passer, drop into coverage if needed, and chase down ball carriers with high-end speed for his size. </p><h2><strong>14. Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss</strong></h2><p>Nolen arguably has the most upside in this DT class. The former No.1 overall recruit in 2022 has had a great draft process, aside from maturity questions that arise occasionally. He has violent hands, brute strength, and a motor that just won&#8217;t quit. In his lone season with Ole Miss, he anchored the nation&#8217;s top run defense and tied the team lead with 14 tackles for loss, adding 6.5 sacks and two fumble recoveries.</p><h2><strong>15. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona</strong></h2><p>McMillan has more to offer than his viral one-handed, between-the-legs catches during training. He dominates the vertical game with extraordinary length, body control, and run-after-the-catch ability. He&#8217;s not the most effective at creating separation, but he&#8217;s a matchup nightmare who plays like a basketball player in cleats.</p><h2><strong>16. Cam Ward, QB, Miami</strong></h2><p>Ward brings electric playmaking ability with high-level arm talent to all areas of the field. He shows special awareness in chaos while keeping his eyes downfield for the big play, albeit too often, which causes too many turnover-worthy throws.</p><h2><strong>17. Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan</strong></h2><p>Loveland possesses rare movement skills and natural hands for a tight end. He creates consistent separation with refined routes while showing surprising power at the point of attack.</p><h2><strong>18. Matthew Golden, WR, Texas</strong></h2><p>Golden is a smooth operator who wins with elite separation, quickness, and effortless route running. His ability to set up defenders and snap off routes makes him a consistent chain-mover, and he has a knack for finding soft spots in coverage. He&#8217;s not the biggest or fastest, but he&#8217;s a technician.</p><h2><strong>19. Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas</strong></h2><p>While not the most explosive athlete, Baron is an elite ballhawk &#8212; the Thorpe Award winner flashes an uncanny football radar. Though he may not check all the boxes as a true boundary corner, he has great anticipation and timing.</p><h2><strong>20. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan</strong></h2><p>Johnson&#8217;s an elite pattern matcher with fluid hips and explosive bursts. His ball skills and route recognition allow him to bait quarterbacks into throws they immediately regret. He has a special blend of confidence and instincts that define shutdown corners, though he lacks the top-end speed many have.</p><h2><strong>21. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Edge, Boston College</strong></h2><p>Ezeiruaku is undersized at 6-foot-2, 247 pounds, but he has a bottomless bag of pass-rush moves that led to a 16-sack season with the Eagles. If he can become more powerful, he&#8217;ll be a dominant force. Bigger opponents handle him pretty easily if his initial and counter fail.</p><h2><strong>22. Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State</strong></h2><p>I don&#8217;t think there was a bigger winner during the Senior Bowl than Zabel. He stymied every defender trying to plow through him &#8212; and he did it at each position across the line.</p><h2><strong>23. Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon</strong></h2><p>Harmon is a mountain of a man who controls the line of scrimmage with sheer power and leverage. His ability to eat up double teams and still generate interior pressure makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses. While he&#8217;s not the most explosive, his motor and technique allow him to disrupt both the run and pass game consistently.</p><h2><strong>24. Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia</strong></h2><p>Williams is another trait-based gamble from Georgia, like Nolan Smith and Travon Walker. Williams lacked production, but he brought elite burst and bend off the edge with natural pass rush instincts. He also has a 34 3/8 wingspan. He has traits for days that make him an enticing prospect.</p><h2><strong>25. Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan</strong></h2><p>Overshadowed by his counterpart, Graham, Grant consistently reset the line of scrimmage with what&#8217;s near preternatural power and startling quickness. He&#8217;s dominant in both the run and pass rush.</p><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Hail Mary! This post is public so feel free to share it.</p></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft-8d3?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p></div><h2><strong>26. James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee</strong></h2><p>Pearce is tall and slender, yet one of the more gifted pass rushers in this class. He dominated SEC play with a unique blend of bend, twitch, and fluidity. Character concerns have been questioned. If all checks out on that front, Pearce could be the steal of the draft.</p><h2><strong>27. Tyler Booker, IOL, Alabama</strong></h2><p>Alabama players referred to Booker as &#8220;the Will Anderson of the offense.&#8221; Anderson went No. 3 overall just two drafts ago. Booker is one of the safest linemen in this year&#8217;s class.</p><h2><strong>28. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State</strong></h2><p>Egbuka reminds me of another Ohio State product, Jaxson Smith-Njigba &#8212; both being savvy route-runners with exceptional body control and reliable hands in traffic. Like JSN, Egbuka excels in the slot with pristine footwork and spatial awareness. He&#8217;s also an exceptional blocker.</p><h2><strong>29. Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State</strong></h2><p>If not for a torn ACL midway through the season, Simmons would presumably be higher. The NFL draft community awaits his medicals at the combine to see if they need to move him up or down a few spots. If his medicals look good, he could be considered for the first tackle off the board.</p><h2><strong>30. Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC</strong></h2><p>Hampton combines a violent running style with great vision and balance, consistently making the first defender miss while showing the speed to take any carry the distance.</p><h2><strong>31. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State</strong></h2><p>"Henderson can make a house call from anywhere," Chris Fowler noted as Henderson caught the slip-screen pass against Texas in the CFB Semifinals...75 yards later, the Buckeyes' back proved him prophetic with a touchdown sprint before halftime. He&#8217;s lightning in a bottle with exceptional pass-blocking ability.</p><h2><strong>32. </strong>Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss </h2><p>Amos plays like a corner who&#8217;s seen it all &#8212; battle-tested across three programs, his game carries the calm and confidence of experience. At Ole Miss, he finally put it all together, blending size, speed, and swagger into a complete cornerback profile. He&#8217;s sticky in press, instinctive in zone, and plays with an edge that shows up when the ball&#8217;s in the air. You&#8217;d be hard-pressed to find many corners in this class with the physicality and mirroring ability that Amos possesses.</p><h2><strong>33. Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri</strong></h2><p>Burden operates primarily from the slot position, showcasing electric playmaking ability. Despite a statistical regression &#8212; partially attributable to quarterback inconsistency &#8212; his 2023 performance demonstrated his genuine talent. The dynamic playmaker remains despite his substandard season.</p><h2>34. <strong>Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky</strong></h2><p>Despite his lighter frame at 179 pounds, Hairston does well in press coverage where most corners his size struggle. He's a scrappy, play-making cornerback with excellent technique that compensates for his size disadvantage.</p><h2><strong>35. Nic Scourton, Edge, Texas A&amp;M</strong></h2><p>After a 10-sack season at Purdue in 2023, Scourton transferred to Texas A&amp;M and was unable to replicate the former success. His 2023 tape is incredible, and it&#8217;s fair to surmise that whichever team drafts him will likely get that player, as he dropped back down in the 250-pound range (his play weight at Purdue) after playing the 2024 season around 280. I believe he can recapture that production &#8212; the traits that led to double-digit sacks are still evident in his game. Scourton is still just 20 years old.</p><h2><strong>36. Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon</strong></h2><p>A former five-star recruit, Conerly had continuous success at Oregon. He has a rare combination of a high floor and a high ceiling. His skill set blends surprising quickness with redirection ability. Conerly's talent was validated by his peers, who named him the top offensive lineman at the Senior Bowl.</p><h2><strong>37. Mason Taylor, TE, LSU </strong></h2><p>Taylor is a smooth, savvy tight end who plays with the poise of someone raised in the game&#8212;no surprise, given he&#8217;s the son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor. At nearly 6&#8217;5&#8221; and 250 pounds, he&#8217;s not a burner, but he knows how to find soft spots in zone coverage and consistently presents a reliable target for his quarterback. His hands are trustworthy, and he&#8217;s a great blocker.</p><h2><strong>38. Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina</strong></h2><p>An ACL injury sidelined him for most of the 2024 campaign, but Revel is one of the most physically gifted cornerbacks I&#8217;ve watched. At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, he possesses extraordinary recovery speed. He lacks nuance at the position, but he&#8217;s just about everything you want at the position in terms of the physical gifts.</p><h2><strong>39. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas</strong></h2><p>Regarded as the top left tackle in the draft, Banks dominates the edge with his massive frame and surprising movement skills, showing the consistent ability to mirror speed rushers while creating displacement in the run game.</p><h2><strong>40. Xavier Watts, S, Notre Dame</strong></h2><p>Watts brings an exceptional track record of ball production, securing 13 interceptions across two seasons. The Irish's first two-time consensus All-American since '93 makes up for man coverage shortcomings with an uncanny nose for the ball. His playmaking instincts should carry over nicely to Sundays, even if he isn't the most versatile DB in the class.</p><h2><strong>41. Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina</strong></h2><p>A long, rangy safety with a nose for the football, Emmanwori has been the backbone of South Carolina&#8217;s secondary. His physicality and tackling ability make him an enforcer in the run game, but his versatility in coverage &#8212; whether as a deep safety or in the slot &#8212; keeps him on the field in all situations. The tools are there for him to be an impact defender at the next level.</p><h2>42. Omar Norman-Lott, DT, Tennessee </h2><p>Norman-Lott might be undersized, but he rushes the passer with extremely well &#8212; quick hands, natural leverage, and a knack for slipping through creases before linemen can react. He&#8217;s a problem on passing downs, winning with technique and twitch rather than brute strength. But his run defense is still a mystery; he was often pulled in those situations, and when he did play, he struggled to hold up against double teams. He&#8217;s a specialized weapon right now, but one that can wreck pockets in the right role.</p><h2><strong>43. Donovan Jackson, OL, Ohio State</strong></h2><p>Many may have Jackson higher. I mean, he did seamlessly step in for an injured Josh Simmons, sliding from left guard to left tackle. The transition, to quote what NFL lineman Justin Pugh once told me, &#8220;It&#8217;s like moving a fight in a phone booth to an open field.&#8221; It&#8217;s totally different. But Jackson excelled, and now it&#8217;s to be determined whether he&#8217;ll be on the interior or protecting a QB&#8217;s blindside.</p><h2><strong>44. Jaxson Dart, QB, Ole Miss</strong></h2><p>Dart&#8217;s highs are high, and his lows are low. His most impressive performance was in his 515-yard, six-touchdown day against Arkansas. His worst performance came against Florida with the College Football Playoffs on the line, where he had two interceptions in back-to-back possessions in the final minutes of the game. Ole Miss lost. Dart plays with a quiet fire &#8212; poised in the pocket, fearless with his arm, and always hunting the big play. He&#8217;s got one of the prettiest deep balls in the class, dropping passes in stride with touch and confidence, but he&#8217;s a work in progress.</p><h2><strong>45. Darius Alexander, DT, Toledo</strong></h2><p>Alexander will turn 25 when the season kicks off &#8212; an age that admittedly makes front offices nervous. He&#8217;ll be 29 when it&#8217;s time for his second contract. But for contenders looking to maximize their championship window? He's exactly who you want. Turn on his tape, and you'll see why &#8212; it's littered with defenders getting manhandled snap after snap. And the way he moves at 6-foot-4, 310 pounds&#8230;It&#8217;s a lot like Chris Jones.</p><h2><strong>46. Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame</strong></h2><p>Morrison&#8217;s 2023 film is as clean and polished as any cornerback in this draft class &#8212; sticky in man, fluid in zone, and always a step ahead of the route. His instincts and ball skills jump off the screen, and his ability to mirror top receivers made him a true lockdown presence. However, a hip injury cut his 2024 season short, and he&#8217;s still working his way back to full strength. If teams are comfortable with the medicals, Morrison has the tools and tape to be a high-end starter early in his NFL career.</p><h2>47. Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State </h2><p>Judkins is a rugged, no-nonsense runner. At 6 feet and 221 pounds, he&#8217;s built to absorb contact and deliver it right back, using his compact frame and low center of gravity to churn out tough yards between the tackles. While he&#8217;s not the most elusive or explosive back in this class, his vision and decisiveness make him a reliable chain-mover.</p><h2><strong>48. Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA</strong></h2><p>It&#8217;s hard not to admire Schwesinger&#8217;s story. A former walk-on-turned-All-American, the UCLA Bruin has had a meteoric rise throughout the draft process. He has outstanding instincts in all phases and is a fast, rangy linebacker who does well in coverage and defending the run.</p><h2><strong>49. Kyle Williams, WR, Washington State </strong></h2><p>Williams isn&#8217;t the biggest or the fastest &#8212; 5-feet-11, 180 pounds with 4.4 speed &#8212; but he just knows how to get open. Against Travis Hunter, Williams dusted the likely top-two pick for a 34-yard touchdown that left the Colorado sideline stunned. </p><h2>50. Charles Grant, OT, William &amp; Mary </h2><p>Grant is one of the more intriguing small-school prospects in this draft class. A two-time FCS All-American, he&#8217;s a fluid, technically sound left tackle with a wrestling background that shows up in his balance and hand placement.</p><div><hr></div><h2>Top 5 Prospects at Each Position</h2><h3>Quarterbacks</h3><p>1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado</p><p>2. Cam Ward, Miami</p><p>3. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss</p><p>4. Will Howard, Ohio State</p><p>5. Tyler Shough, Louisville</p><h3>Running backs</h3><p>1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State</p><p>2. Omarion Hampton, UNC</p><p>3. TreVeon Henderson, Ohio State</p><p>4. Quinshon Judkins, Ohio State</p><p>5. Kaleb Johnson, Iowa</p><h3>Wide receivers</h3><p>1. Travis Hunter, Colorado</p><p>2. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona</p><p>3. Matthew Golden, Texas</p><p>4. Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State</p><p>5. Luther Burden III, Missouri</p><h3>Tight ends</h3><p>1. Tyler Warren, Penn State</p><p>2. Colston Loveland, Michigan</p><p>3. Mason Taylor, LSU</p><p>4. Elijah Arroyo, Miami</p><p>5. Harold Fannin Jr., Bowling Green</p><h3>Offensive tackles</h3><p>1. Will Campbell, LSU</p><p>2. Armand Membou, Missouri</p><p>3. Josh Simmons, Ohio State</p><p>4. Josh Conerly Jr., Oregon</p><p>5. Kelvin Banks Jr., Texas</p><h3>Interior offensive linemen</h3><p>1. Grey Zabel, North Dakota State</p><p>2. Tyler Booker, Alabama</p><p>3. Donovan Jackson, Ohio State</p><p>4. Tate Ratledge, Georgia</p><p>5. Jared Wilson, Georgia</p><h3>Defensive tackles</h3><p>1. Mason Graham, Michigan</p><p>2. Walter Nolen, Ole Miss</p><p>3. Derrick Harmon, Oregon</p><p>4. Kenneth Grant, Michigan</p><p>5. Omar Norman-Lott, Tennessee</p><h3>Edge rushers</h3><p>1. Abdul Carter, Penn State</p><p>2. Mike Green, Marshall</p><p>3. Jalon Walker, Georgia</p><p>4. Shemar Stewart, Texas A&amp;M</p><p>5. Donovan Ezeiruaku, Boston College</p><h3>Linebackers</h3><p>1. Jihaad Campbell, Alabama</p><p>2. Carson Schwesinger, UCLA</p><p>3. Demetrius Knight Jr., South Carolina</p><p>4. Chris Paul Jr., Ole Miss</p><p>5. Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma</p><h3>Cornerbacks</h3><p>1. Travis Hunter, Colorado</p><p>2. Jahdae Barron, Texas</p><p>3. Will Johnson, Michigan</p><p>4. Trey Amos, Ole Miss</p><p>5. Maxwell Hairston, Kentucky</p><h3>Safeties</h3><p>1. Malaki Starks, Georgia</p><p>2. Xavier Watts, Notre Dame</p><p>3. Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina</p><p>4. Kevin Winston Jr., Penn State</p><p>5. Andrew Mukaba, Texas</p><h3>Kickers</h3><p>1. Andres Borregales, Miami</p><p>2. Ryan Fitzgerald, Florida State</p><p>3. Caden Davis, Ole Miss</p><h3>Punters</h3><p>1. Jeremy Crawshaw, Florida</p><p>2. James Burnip, Alabama</p><p>3. Eddie Czaplicki, USC</p><h3>Long-snappers</h3><p>1. Austin Brinkman, West Virginia</p><p>2. William Wagner, Michigan</p><p>3. Kneeland Hibbett, Alabama</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. </p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Harold Fannin Jr. is everything and nothing like a tight end]]></title><description><![CDATA[He&#8217;s too stiff. Too slow. Too&#8230; effective? Harold Fannin Jr. is an enigma&#8212; and yet he might be the NFL draft&#8217;s most quietly dangerous offensive weapon.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/harold-fannin-jr-is-everything-and</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/harold-fannin-jr-is-everything-and</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Wed, 09 Apr 2025 23:52:57 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sLG6!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa740cbe0-1b41-4b9e-9887-27847e43acef_1956x1100.webp" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" 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srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sLG6!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa740cbe0-1b41-4b9e-9887-27847e43acef_1956x1100.webp 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sLG6!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa740cbe0-1b41-4b9e-9887-27847e43acef_1956x1100.webp 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sLG6!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa740cbe0-1b41-4b9e-9887-27847e43acef_1956x1100.webp 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!sLG6!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa740cbe0-1b41-4b9e-9887-27847e43acef_1956x1100.webp 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Bobby McDuffie, BGSU Athletics</figcaption></figure></div><p>He&#8217;s 6-foot-3, 241 pounds of the unconventional. Of confusion. Of contradiction. A tight end with a smaller frame, a power slot who isn&#8217;t fast by any means. A record-breaking pass catcher with the gait of a teenager playing backyard football.</p><p>Harold Fannin Jr. is one of the NFL draft&#8217;s mysteries this year.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>In an era where tight ends are finely tuned chess pieces &#8212; 6-foot-6 red zone skyscrapers, inline bulldozers, or Kyle Pitts-shaped unicorns &#8212; Fannin is none of those. He doesn&#8217;t jump off the screen with elite athleticism. He doesn&#8217;t pancake defensive ends in the run game. His game isn&#8217;t played above the rim. It&#8217;s played in the dead zones of a defense&#8217;s awareness, where linebackers hesitate and safeties peek into the backfield. And it works.</p><p>God, does it work.</p><p>At Bowling Green, Fannin carved up the MAC effortlessly. In 2024, he led all FBS tight ends in receptions (117), yards (1,555), and touchdowns (10) and broke the single-season tight end receptions record. Sure, some were H-back dump-offs within eight yards of the line of scrimmage. Some were manufactured touches. But watch the tape: he&#8217;s also winning on choice routes, slants, and seams. Fannin <em>was</em> the offense. And it wasn&#8217;t just against MAC opponents, either. Fannin torched Penn State&#8217;s No. 7-ranked pass defense for 11 catches, 137 yards, and one touchdown. </p><p>His historical season wasn&#8217;t a one-off.</p><p>Down in Mobile, Ala., under the Senior Bowl microscope, Fannin had a chance to show his ability up close. To show his movement skills and his capability against non-MAC defenders. The result? He ran circles around the doubt.</p><p>He looked quick. Sharp. He had suddenness in and out of his breaks that&#8217;s more difficult to detect on tape. He still ran slightly duck-footed, but there was nuance &#8212; a snap at the top of his routes, a feel for leverage against bigger, faster defenders. And he won. Repeatedly. He didn&#8217;t dominate the highlight reels, but that&#8217;s never been the point. He played his game &#8212; subtle, spatial, unshaken &#8212; and proved that the tape isn&#8217;t a fluke. It&#8217;s not to be shrugged off. It travels.</p><p>This encapsulates the Fannin conundrum. His stride is unorthodox &#8212; upright, almost rigid. So much that it casts doubt on his ability at the next level. Yet, he moves efficiently. He separates. He finishes.</p><p>Scouts are torn about what he projects to be because, well, they are always with someone like this. Someone who doesn&#8217;t fit a category.</p><p>Some see a hybrid weapon &#8212; an NFL mismatch waiting to happen, a flex tight end who can feast in the short game and live in the seams. A H-back with strong hands and YAC ability. Others see a gadget. A MAC-made illusion who will vanish the moment NFL safeties get a read on his speed.</p><p>Yet even that question feels too small. Too binary. Fannin is what happens when you strip football of pretense, when you stop asking if a guy can run a 4.4 and start asking if a guy gets open, when you realize that maybe route polish and catch radius aren&#8217;t everything &#8212; that maybe the best receivers are the ones who understand space (e.g., Cooper Kupp, Amon-Ra St. Brown) better than the people trying to contain them. </p><p>That&#8217;s Fannin. He understands space. He understands tempo. He understands that you don&#8217;t need to be fast &#8212; you just need to arrive at the right time. Blocking isn&#8217;t his calling card. Not yet. He&#8217;s not moving defenders off their spot or owning leverage on combo blocks. But there&#8217;s a reason &#8212; and it&#8217;s not just his frame. Fannin is only 20 years old. You see it in the way he engages: the technique is raw, the timing inconsistent. </p><p>At worst? Maybe he&#8217;s Isaiah Likely, another tight end who doesn&#8217;t check the boxes but still finds a way. Likely came out of Coastal Carolina at 6-foot-4, 245 pounds &#8212; nearly identical to Fannin &#8212; and didn&#8217;t wow with testing numbers either, running a 4.82 forty at his pro day. But he understood space. He won as a receiver, posting 912 yards and 12 touchdowns his senior year, and carved out a role in Baltimore as a mismatch piece in the slot. He wasn&#8217;t a dominant blocker. Neither is Fannin. But both have that same hybrid DNA &#8212; not unicorns, not bulldozers, not burners &#8212; just guys who get open, stay open, and punish defenses that forget about them.</p><p>At the Scouting Combine, Fannin ran a substandard 4.73 forty when many, including myself, expected better. But that&#8217;s not the be-all and end-all. Watch the film. Trust your eyes. Fannin knows how to get open. He knows how to finish. He knows how to make a defense look silly and a scout look stupid.</p><p>That&#8217;s what makes Fannin so damn interesting.</p><p>Not because he&#8217;s built like Antonio Gates or moves like Travis Kelce. But because he isn&#8217;t, and he doesn&#8217;t.</p><p>Because he&#8217;s everything and nothing like a modern tight end.</p><p>Because he shouldn&#8217;t work &#8212; but he does.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/harold-fannin-jr-is-everything-and?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/harold-fannin-jr-is-everything-and?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[A mile-high ceiling: Calm in the chaos, Bo Nix helped Denver elevate. What's next?]]></title><description><![CDATA[Bo Nix looks like the real deal for Denver. But the blueprint that carried him through a promising rookie campaign now needs expansion.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/a-mile-high-ceiling-calm-in-the-chaos</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/a-mile-high-ceiling-calm-in-the-chaos</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 08 Apr 2025 14:51:28 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For nearly a decade, the Mile High City watched quarterback after quarterback lose altitude. That is, until Bo Nix came along, leveled off the turbulence, and gave Denver a reason to believe again. </p><p>However, that belief doesn&#8217;t rest on Nix alone, the quarterback who turned skepticism into silence over the course of his 2024 rookie season, leading the Broncos to their first playoff appearance since 2015. It stretches further to Sean Payton and what he&#8217;s still chasing in Denver &#8212; a final act worthy of his r&#233;sum&#233;, not a retread of Russell Wilson&#8217;s slow-motion implosion.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Nix was never a mystery box, never the athletic dice roll Anthony Richardson was a year before. No 4.4 forty. No jaw-dropping off-platform throws designed for social media loops. What he brought instead was a sense of order. Control. A quarterback who plays on time, thinks fast, and avoids the catastrophic. And now, in entering year two, the Broncos believe they&#8217;ve found a foundation &#8212; something they haven&#8217;t had since Peyton Manning left the building.</p><p>Payton didn&#8217;t inherit this one. He chose him. Hand-picked him. Sure, Nix was the remaining quarterback of the consensus top-six still on the board. But I believe Nix was Payton&#8217;s guy all along. He didn&#8217;t blink. He saw in Nix a quarterback who could process fast and distribute faster. The kind of player who doesn&#8217;t need to throw across his body 35 yards downfield to impress because he&#8217;s already hit the hot read and moved the chains. Drew Brees, Payton&#8217;s long-time quarterback, was similar in that sense. He&#8217;s second behind the consensus GOAT Tom Brady in all-time passing yards.</p><p>For Nix, what followed wasn&#8217;t flashy &#8212; it was effective. He brought the offense to life, not with chaos, but with calm. His numbers were impressive &#8212; 3,775 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions &#8212; and so was his steadiness. Few mistakes. Good rhythm. The pocket presence of a quarterback who&#8217;s been hit before, booed before, rebuilt before. Nix gave Denver something it hadn&#8217;t seen in years: functional quarterback play that looked like it belonged in an NFL offense.</p><p>That&#8217;s what Payton was chasing when he took the job. Because before Nix, the Broncos were in a death spiral of quarterback purgatory. Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, Paxton Lynch, Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, and then Wilson. Each new name brought less confidence. Then came the desperation. The press conferences, the &#8220;Broncos&#8217; Country, Let&#8217;s Ride,&#8221; and the power struggle. Payton took a sledgehammer to all of it in year one &#8212; publicly, privately, and philosophically. And Nix? He was the quiet answer.</p><p>He&#8217;s 25, not 21. He&#8217;s thrown roughly 2,600 passes between college and the pros. He&#8217;s not a project &#8212; he&#8217;s a player. At Oregon, he was the nerve center of a 40-point-per-game offense. In Denver, he&#8217;s turning into something more sustainable: a quarterback who plays the position, not just performs it.</p><p>But the Broncos still need to help him. 29-year-old Courtland Sutton won&#8217;t be around forever, although his career-year this past season (81 catches, 1,081 yards, and eight touchdowns) will surely keep him in Denver for the near future. Marvin Mims Jr. flashed, but the ceiling remains theoretical. Conversely, the offensive line is great, finishing first in pass block win rate (74%) and run block win rate (75%). They project to be great next season, too. So, Denver now needs to continue surrounding Nix with playmakers if it wants to take him and the offense from efficient to explosive. Because for all his positives, Nix doesn&#8217;t raise all boats. Right now, he needs the water level to rise with him.</p><p>And in the AFC West, that margin is razor thin. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes. Justin Herbert now has Jim Harbaugh, and the Chargers are going to start punching defenses in the mouth. The Raiders? Still a mess, but that could change fast with the offseason addition of Geno Smith. Nix doesn&#8217;t need to be the best quarterback in the division. But he has to keep pace. And if last year was any indication, he&#8217;s not just here to manage the game. He&#8217;s here to win it.</p><p>So yes, this is still a bet. Although now it&#8217;s a bet with returns. Denver finally exhaled at the conclusion of last season. The franchise finally saw what servicable quarterback play looked like. And Payton? He got his proof of concept. If Nix builds on what he started, he will present a mile-high ceiling. Not theoretical. Not a mirage. Real.</p><p>But the air thins quickly in this league. Nix was polished, poised, and prepared &#8212; but so was Mac Jones once upon a time. What Denver got last season was functionality. What it still needs is firepower. The real question isn&#8217;t whether Nix can run an offense; it&#8217;s whether he can take over one.</p><p>Can he go blow for blow with Mahomes in a December shootout? Can he erase a two-score deficit in the fourth quarter with something more than screens and slants? The early returns are promising, but the danger lies in mistaking competence for stardom. The NFL eats quarterbacks alive if that&#8217;s all they are. That&#8217;s the problem with efficiency: it can become predictable. At some point, in a big moment, the Broncos are going to need Nix to do something unscripted, something uncomfortable, something that makes the league stop and say, <em>Wait&#8230;did he just do that?</em></p><p>The good news? He showed flashes of brilliance last season. And he doesn&#8217;t need to do it every week. The Broncos just need Nix to extend plays without holding the ball for too long and inviting disaster, finding that sweet spot between recklessness and risk-aversion, trusting his eyes when he&#8217;s out of the pocket. Watch the tape on how Brees navigated muddy pockets in his career. He wasn't mobile, but he was slippery and decisive. Nix has better athleticism to work with &#8212; he needs to weaponize it. </p><p>The Broncos are headed in the right direction. They didn&#8217;t stumble into a Super Bowl window overnight, but they&#8217;ve finally stopped digging the hole. And in a loaded AFC, that counts. If the defense holds serve, and the front office finds Nix another weapon, this team should flirt with ten wins. Maybe more. Maybe another wild card. Maybe something dangerous if they hit December hot.</p><p>For Bo and the Broncos, the grace period&#8217;s over. Defensive coordinators have film. Payton&#8217;s out of surprises. The league adjusts. It always does. And now it&#8217;s on Nix to hit back with something sharper, quicker, bolder. Because in a division where Mahomes is inevitable and Harbaugh is coming, standing still is just another way to fall behind.</p><p>The margin for error is small. The expectations are growing. But if what we saw last year was the baseline, Denver might finally have a quarterback it can build around &#8212; <em>not just believe in</em>.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/a-mile-high-ceiling-calm-in-the-chaos?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/a-mile-high-ceiling-calm-in-the-chaos?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[For QB-needy NFL teams: Patriots’ Joe Milton III is worth a call]]></title><description><![CDATA[The Patriots No. 2 option is dripping with potential.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/hey-qb-needy-nfl-teams-patriots-joe</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/hey-qb-needy-nfl-teams-patriots-joe</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 27 Mar 2025 03:27:19 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Of course, it sounds irrational.</p><p>Joe Milton III, New England&#8217;s sixth-round selection last year, has played just one NFL game. One. He spent the entire season buried on the Patriots&#8217; depth chart, a developmental project on a team that drafted their hopeful franchise quarterback &#8212; North Carolina&#8217;s Drake Maye &#8212; with the No. 3 overall pick. And after just one season, it certainly looks like Maye is the future. But in that one game, that meaningless Week 18 contest versus the Buffalo Bills, Milton shined. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>Milton didn&#8217;t just play well &#8212; he commanded the moment. Thrust into action early after Maye&#8217;s brief cameo, he completed an efficient 22 of 29 passes for 241 yards and a touchdown, adding another score with his legs. The Patriots walked away with a 23-16 victory, a win that inadvertently knocked them out of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Patriots fans lamented the loss of security for a potential Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter selection &#8212; rightfully so. But the real story was the sixth-round rookie&#8217;s play.</p><p>Yes, the Bills primarily rolled out their backups. But that doesn&#8217;t diminish what Milton put on tape &#8212; tape I sifted through after I found out teams held interest in the Patriots&#8217; No. 2 option. He was decisive, composed, confident, and aggressive, slinging darts to every level of the field. </p><p>His most tantalizing moment? On the run, Milton fired a perfectly placed frozen rope to Kayshon Boutte for a 48-yard touchdown.</p><p>Surely, Milton&#8217;s raw capabilities, young age, and incredibly strong arm would be more intriguing than an elder option like Aaron Rodgers, who is dragging out his decision with the hope the correct one will lead to an unlikely renaissance.</p><p>The Pittsburgh Steelers have yet to address the quarterback position while waiting for Rodgers&#8217; decision. Ultimately, I believe his decision will come soon, given the Giants&#8217; recent signing of Russell Wilson. He&#8217;ll likely choose the Steelers, but the Vikings are a dark-horse team that could lure the 41-year-old signal caller away from Steel City. Milton&#8217;s strong arm would be a perfect fit in Pittsburgh with the field-stretching duo of DK Metcalf and George Pickens.</p><p>Another team that would make sense for Milton is the New Orleans Saints. Derek Carr is 33 years old and didn&#8217;t look great this past season. The Saints were one of the worst offenses in football. They desperately need an infusion of youth and upside at the quarterback position. Carr's contract makes him immovable in the short term, but Milton could provide the perfect developmental bridge. His rocket arm would pair beautifully with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed's deep-threat capabilities.</p><p>I&#8217;d mention the Titans, but as the draft process moves along, the feeling is that Cam Ward is a shoo-in to be the pick at No. 1. The Miami product has seemingly separated himself from Shedeur Sanders during the pre-draft circuit, dazzling scouts with his combination of arm talent and improvisational skills. Tennessee's regime, led by Brian Callahan, seems all-in on finding their franchise quarterback, and Ward has fans in that building. However, who&#8217;s to say they won&#8217;t take Carter or Hunter still? Could Milton serve as a bridge quarterback with upside if they prefer the former or the latter? Perhaps.</p><p>Right now, reports are saying that the Patriots would be looking for a second or third-round pick in return for Milton. Of course, teams might balk at sending a day-two pick for a former sixth-rounder with one start. But in a QB-desperate league, traits often win out. Milton is what regimes are looking for in a franchise quarterback: young, strong-armed, and athletic.</p><p>Wouldn&#8217;t it be more intriguing to see what 25-year-old Joe Milton could become instead of betting on Rodgers turning the clock back just two years removed from a torn Achilles? Not to mention, Rodgers will likely command north of $20 million per year compared to Milton&#8217;s $1 million per year.</p><p>Yet, we continue to wait for the Rodgers saga to end. It&#8217;s been milked out for far too long now. For teams that come short in the sweepstakes, Milton remains an intriguing alternative.</p><p>The Patriots aren&#8217;t in any rush to trade Milton &#8212; good No. 2 quarterbacks are invaluable in today&#8217;s NFL. But if the right offer comes, New England won&#8217;t hesitate to move him. And for a QB-needy team, the real question isn&#8217;t what Milton is right now &#8212; it&#8217;s what he could become. </p><p>Wouldn&#8217;t that be worth the gamble?</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/hey-qb-needy-nfl-teams-patriots-joe?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/hey-qb-needy-nfl-teams-patriots-joe?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gavin Riley's 2025 NFL mock draft: Post-combine predictions]]></title><description><![CDATA[Two top-10 running backs and a quarterback slide in my NFL mock draft 1.0.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Sat, 08 Mar 2025 14:14:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The lights have dimmed in Indianapolis. Now, free agency awaits.</p><p>Mock drafts before free agency is in full swing are essentially educated guesses wrapped in speculation. The coming weeks will reshape team needs across the league as veterans find new homes and roster holes either get filled or become more glaring.</p><p>But that's what makes this time of year so damn fun.</p><p>Some of these picks will look ridiculous a month from now. Team needs will evolve, and prospects will rise and fall based on pro days and private workouts. That's the beautiful chaos of the NFL offseason.</p><p>Here's my first crack at a predictive 2025 NFL mock draft. Enjoy.</p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2>1. New York Giants (Via trade w/ TEN): Cam Ward, QB, Miami</h2><p>Reports from the combine echo that the Giants are actively trying to trade up to the No. 1 pick &#8212; and the Titans are open to moving the pick. I would think the Giants want to move up for a quarterback, and their preference is widely surmised to be Ward.</p><h2>2. Cleveland Browns: Abdul Carter, ED, Penn State</h2><p>The Browns are likely in the market for a QB (Cam Ward). If Ward goes No. 1, they don&#8217;t have to force the selection of Sanders. With Myles Garrett <em>probably</em> on his way out, Carter would make the most sense here. </p><h2>3. Tennessee Titans (Via trade w/ NYG): Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado</h2><p>The Titans have a lot of needs, so a trade-down makes a ton of sense. If they do, they&#8217;ll either end up with Carter, who may be the pick if they stand pat at No. 1, or Hunter, the two-way star who could help Tennessee on both sides of the ball. In this case, they end up with Hunter, who fills an immediate need at both WR and CB.</p><h2>4. New England Patriots: Armand Membou, T, Missouri</h2><p>You&#8217;ve got your franchise quarterback in Drake Maye. Great. Now, you need to protect him. Membou checks every box &#8212; he&#8217;s technically sound, tough, athletic, and has prototypical tackle size. His tape and athletic test warrant a selection this high.</p><h2>5. Jacksonville Jaguars: Will Campbell, OL, LSU</h2><p>New general manager James Gladstone emphasized the importance of building through the trenches, along with emulating the Rams&#8217; team-building philosophy. While I think Mason Graham could be in play, Trevor Lawrence needs protection. I believe teams love Campbell despite his short arm length (32/5/8). His SEC tape is rock solid, and he had a dominant on-field workout at the combine. He&#8217;d be a nice fairway finder for the first-year GM.</p><h2>6. Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State</h2><p>The Raiders stunned the NFL community Friday night when they traded a late third-round pick for quarterback Geno Smith. Now, Vegas can take the best player available, which is Jeanty. The Boise State product and Heisman runner-up would address a need for an offense that finished dead last in rushing yards per game (70.8) and yards per rush (3.6).</p><h2>7. New York Jets: Mason Graham, DL, Michigan</h2><p>Graham isn&#8217;t the most athletic DT in the class, but he&#8217;s incredibly disruptive &#8212; has been since he stepped foot onto Michigan&#8217;s campus. He and Quinnen Williams would form an elite duo. I&#8217;d think new head coach Aaron Glenn is salivating at this pairing.</p><h2>8. Carolina Panthers: Shemar Stewart, ED, Texas A&amp;M</h2><p>At 6-foot-5 and 267 pounds, Stewart lit up the combine: He sprinted a 1.58-second 10-yard split and 4.59-second 40-yard dash, broad jumped 10'11", and vertical jumped 40". The Panthers desperately need defensive help, starting with rushing the passer; The Panthers ranked No. 31 in the NFL in pass rush win rate. </p><p>Stewart didn&#8217;t have incredible production with the Aggies &#8212; just 4 1/2 sacks in his collegiate career &#8212; but his play-wrecking ability is evident on tape. Carolina swings big with Stewart&#8217;s high ceiling.</p><h2>9. New Orleans Saints: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State</h2><p>There&#8217;s a glaring need for offensive playmakers &#8212; an absence that caused the Saints 2024 offense to be quite predictable &#8212; regardless of who the quarterback will be. Warren is a do-it-all offensive chess piece. He would immediately become the first or second option in the pecking order for Kellen Moore&#8217;s offense.</p><h2>10. Chicago Bears: Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC</h2><p>Surprise! Well, it really shouldn&#8217;t be. The Detroit Lions took Jahmyr Gibbs just two years ago at No. 12, and it was a home run. I would have given them an offensive lineman, but they revitalized the interior within the last two days (trading for Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney.) Ben Johnson likes to run the ball, and if they decide to keep D&#8217;Andre Swift, Hampton would be a great compliment.</p><h2>11. San Francisco 49ers: Mike Green, ED, Marshall</h2><p>Green&#8217;s prospect status is enigmatic at the moment due to reports that sexual assault allegations led to his dismissal from Virginia&#8217;s program and transfer to Marshall. He denies any wrongdoing. If Green&#8217;s situation clears up, he shouldn&#8217;t fall far in the draft. He&#8217;s one of the best pure pass rushers in this group.</p><h2>12. Dallas Cowboys: Tetaroia McMillan, WR, Arizona</h2><p>Outside of Ceedee Lamb, what other weapons does Dallas have? McMillan is a prototypical X receiver with a wide catch radius. He&#8217;s Drake London-esque. I think McMillan will have a similar impact and role.</p><h2>13. Miami Dolphins: Kelvin Banks, OT, Texas</h2><p>What the hell is going on with Terron Armstead? He&#8217;s under contract for 2026, but the team isn&#8217;t including him in its 2025 plans &#8212; at least that&#8217;s what Mike McDaniels insinuated at a press conference at the Scouting Combine. To me, that means finding Armstead&#8217;s replacement with this pick is a priority. </p><p>Banks, a three-year starter at left tackle, seems like a safe selection here. Analysts project him better at guard due to his playstyle, but he has the tools to stay outside.</p><h2>14. Indianapolis Colts: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas</h2><p>The Colts could look to add another weapon for Anthony Richardson &#8212; or whoever wins the starting quarterback job &#8212; but the secondary has major holes. Teams too often dissected the Colts&#8217; pass defense. To make the transition of Lou Anarumo smooth, solidifying the back-end of the defense.</p><p>Barron is a smothering coverage corner underneath who found himself in the right place at the right time, often throughout the 2024 season. He could play a bigger-nickel role with JuJu Brents set to come back from injury. I think Barron could have a similar impact Cooper DeJean had with the Eagles.</p><h2>15. Atlanta Falcons: Jalon Walker, LB/ED, Georgia</h2><p>For the third consecutive year, I&#8217;m projecting a pass rush for the Falcons &#8212; well, kind of. Walker is a bit of a tweener, or hybrid, if you will. He&#8217;s had success rushing the passer but lacks the ideal size to be a full-time edge rusher. The Falcons would get the most value from him as an early-down off-ball linebacker who rushes off the edge occasionally or lines up as a blitzer across the line.</p><h2>16. Arizona Cardinals: Will Johnson, CB, Michigan</h2><p>The Cardinals could go pass rush here, but they probably weren&#8217;t expecting Johnson to fall. He could be the lockdown CB1 they&#8217;ve been missing since Patrick Peterson.</p><h2>17. Cincinnati Bengals: Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan</h2><p>This has to be defense, right? Last season, the Bengal's defense was, for lack of a better term, abysmal. A gargantuan interior defender like Grant would be a good place to start. He&#8217;s great against the run and can rush the passer.</p><h2>18. Seattle Seahawks: Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina</h2><p>Head coach Mike MacDonald was the Ravens&#8217; defensive coordinator when they drafted Kyle Hamilton in the first round of the 2022 draft. While Emmanwori&#8217;s not quite Hamilton, he&#8217;s a freak in his own nature.</p><p>Emmanwori, a 2024 First-Team All-American, stole the show at this year&#8217;s Scouting Combine with his freakish testing. The 6-foot-3, 220-pound safety ran a 4.38 40-yard dash and jumped a 43&#8217;&#8217; vertical and 11&#8217;6&#8217;&#8217; broad.  </p><h2>19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Donovan Ezeiruaku, ED, Boston College</h2><p>This seems like a hand-in-glove fit. The Bucs need a pure pass rusher, and Ezeiruaku is just that. At 6-foot-2, 248 pounds, he&#8217;s not biggest, fastest, or strongest, but he has a deep bag of pass-rush moves and pairs each with elite bend. The Boston College product has 16.5 sacks in his final year.</p><h2>20. Denver Broncos: Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan</h2><p>Connecting the Broncos to a tight end is far from original, but the Michigan product fits the &#8220;joker&#8221; need Sean Payton is looking for. Payton defined his desired &#8220;joker&#8221; as a tight end or running back with exceptional receiving skills. That&#8217;s Colston Loveland&#8217;s strong suit.</p><h2>21. Pittsburgh Steelers: Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado</h2><p>The slide stops! Could the Steelers actually luck out here? Sanders would be a perfect fit for the culture Mike Tomlin has built, and they need a quarterback, pending the free agency decisions of Russel Wilson and Justin Fields. I don&#8217;t see this as another Kenny Pickett situation, either. I think Sanders can be Pittsburgh&#8217;s guy.</p><div class="digest-post-embed" data-attrs="{&quot;nodeId&quot;:&quot;92bc9488-8f2a-4c82-91c5-11607603fd78&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;Driven by a desperate need to strike gold at the position, a team may find its franchise quarterback in this year&#8217;s draft.&quot;,&quot;cta&quot;:null,&quot;showBylines&quot;:true,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;md&quot;,&quot;isEditorNode&quot;:true,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Why teams might roll the dice on a shaky QB class&quot;,&quot;publishedBylines&quot;:[{&quot;id&quot;:200943049,&quot;name&quot;:&quot;Gavin Riley&quot;,&quot;bio&quot;:&quot;I like football &#8212; and I enjoy writing from time to time.&quot;,&quot;photo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/cdc8a7fe-3d67-488d-a313-e77aaee7cc2a_1090x1206.jpeg&quot;,&quot;is_guest&quot;:false,&quot;bestseller_tier&quot;:null}],&quot;post_date&quot;:&quot;2025-02-06T22:09:11.097Z&quot;,&quot;cover_image&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F582d44dd-256c-41e0-b589-7d7d8d278ee9_1999x1185.jpeg&quot;,&quot;cover_image_alt&quot;:null,&quot;canonical_url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/why-teams-might-roll-the-dice-on&quot;,&quot;section_name&quot;:&quot;Columns&quot;,&quot;video_upload_id&quot;:null,&quot;id&quot;:156477529,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;newsletter&quot;,&quot;reaction_count&quot;:1,&quot;comment_count&quot;:0,&quot;publication_id&quot;:null,&quot;publication_name&quot;:&quot;Hail Mary&quot;,&quot;publication_logo_url&quot;:&quot;https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png&quot;,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;youtube_url&quot;:null,&quot;show_links&quot;:null,&quot;feed_url&quot;:null}"></div><h2>22. Los Angeles Chargers: Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama</h2><p>Jim Harbaugh's identity has always been physical football. Booker embodies that mentality with his nasty play style. The Chargers must keep Justin Herbert upright after he took a beating last season. Booker's SEC experience against elite competition means he can start immediately.</p><h2>23. Green Bay Packers: Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina</h2><p>The Packers desperately need secondary help, especially with Jaire Alexander likely on his way out the door. The 6-foot-3 cornerback has incredible closing speed and the physical traits to match up with the NFC North's upper-echelon receivers. His ball skills and length will fill the void Alexander is imminent to leave behind.</p><h2>24. Minnesota Vikings: Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State</h2><p>I fully expect the Vikings to trade down from this pick. They have just three picks in 2025, the next coming in the fifth round. But for this exercise, they stand pat, mainly because I can&#8217;t envision a trade-up scenario for another team with the prospects currently on the board.</p><p>Whether it&#8217;s Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy starting, the Vikings need to add some interior protection &#8212; the NFC Wildcard matchup against Detroit showed that. Zabel can play across the line but is probably best suited for guard or center at the NFL level. Nonetheless, he&#8217;s a blue-collar brawler and a plug-in-play upgrade on the interior. </p><h2>25. Houston Texans: Matthew Golden, WR, Texas</h2><p>Tank Dell is likely to miss all of 2025, and Stefon Diggs &#8212; coming off an ACL tear &#8212; is no sure thing to re-sign this offseason. A 4.29 40-yard dash, A+ tracking, and exceptional route running &#8212; Golden is the perfect complement to what the Texans already have in Nico Collins. Golden staying in Texas just feels right.</p><h2>26. Los Angeles Rams: Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State</h2><p>The Rams made it clear they plan to move on from Cooper Kupp, so why not replace him with a player possessing a similar skill set? Egbuka is arguably the most polished receiver in this class &#8212; crisp routes, reliable hands, exceptional blocking, and the football IQ that McVay covets. The Ohio State product could step in immediately and keep the Rams&#8217; offense humming.</p><h2>27. Baltimore Ravens: Mykel Williams, ED, Georgia</h2><p>The Ravens could use help on the edge. Williams is an A+ run defender who&#8217;s still raw as a pass rusher but undeniably has the freakish traits to become one of the premiers in the league.</p><h2>28. Detroit Lions: Jihaad Campbell, LB/ED, Alabama</h2><p>Whether he&#8217;ll be an off-ball linebacker or full-time edge defender opposite of Aidan Hutchinson, Campbell is a perfect fit for Detroit. He&#8217;s the kind of player head coach Dan Campbell covets &#8212; relentless with a high motor. </p><h2>29. Washington Commanders: Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State</h2><p>The Commanders opt to select their hopeful left tackle of the future to protect quarterback Jayden Daniel&#8217;s blindside. Pre-ACL tear, Simmons had a case for the best left tackle in college football. His recovery is going as planned thus far, so him being available at No. 29 is quite the steal. </p><h2>30. Buffalo Bills: James Pearce Jr., ED, Tennessee</h2><p>The Bills could afford to add depth to their pass rush. Pearce Jr., once considered a top-10 prospect before the start of the 2024 season, would be a good get late in the first round. A tall and slender rusher, Pearce Jr. often teleports into the backfield with blurry speed, which he showcased with his 4.47 40-yard dash (in a hoodie!).</p><h2>31. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Conerly Jr., OT, Oregon</h2><p>After quarterback Patrick Mahomes was sacked six times on zero blitzes in the Super Bowl, the Chiefs may feel inclined to make changes to their offensive line. Conerly has helped himself not only at the Senior Bowl, but at the combine, too.</p><h2>32. Philadelphia Eagles: Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss</h2><p>Anticipating the Eagles lose Milton Williams in free agency, Nolen would be a gift-wrapped replacement. Nolen, like Williams, excels at rushing the passer from the interior. This pick would fall in line with general manager Howie Roseman scooping up players who fall further than they should.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-2025-nfl-mock-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Gavin Riley's top 50 2025 NFL Draft prospects]]></title><description><![CDATA[Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 28 Feb 2025 21:10:23 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Hail Mary is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><h2>1. Abdul Carter, ED, Penn State</h2><p>The No. 1 spot is the former Nittany Lion. Carter explodes off the ball with rare acceleration that stymies blockers. Watch his tape against the elite programs &#8212; USC, Ohio State, Notre Dame &#8212; he's a constant disruptor. His speed wins early, complemented by a swipe/rip combo. He immediately exploits oversetting tackles, darting inside for quick pressures. When QBs try escaping, Carter shows a natural instinct to redirect underneath. In back-side pursuits, he closes at a blurry speed.</p><h2>2. Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorad<strong>o</strong></h2><p>Hunter is the most gifted two-way player since Deion Sanders, with elite instincts and ball skills at both receiver and corner. At CB, he&#8217;s sticky in coverage with elite ball skills. He changes direction like he's controlled by a joystick. At WR, he&#8217;s a polished route runner that easily creates separation. He can also climb the ladder for contested jump balls. He&#8217;s a transcendent talent who simply operates on a different level.</p><h2>3. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State</h2><p>Jeanty had one of the most absurd running back seasons in history, falling just 28 yards short of Barry Sanders&#8217; all-time rushing record. He has some of the best contact balance I&#8217;ve seen from a running back. He&#8217;ll be the focal point of the offense for whichever team selects him. </p><h2>4. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan</h2><p>Graham is an immovable force on the interior who combines elite power with surprising quickness for a man his size. He controls gaps with exceptional leverage and hand placement that makes him nearly impossible to move. He&#8217;s a dominant presence who consistently resets the line of scrimmage.</p><h2>5. Will Campbell, OT, LSU</h2><p>Campbell played left tackle at LSU, but analysts foresee a future at guard. Personally, I think he can stay at left tackle. His hand placement and sheer power make him my favorite offensive lineman in the draft. Watch the tape against the powerful potential top-15 pick, Shemar Stewart.</p><h2>6. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State</h2><p>If you&#8217;re looking for a complete offensive weapon, Warren is your guy. He burst onto the scene this past season with his incredible receiving skills and ferocious mentality as a blocker. Penn State lined Warren up everywhere. Whichever team drafts him is getting a versatile chess piece.</p><h2>7. Mike Green, ED, Marshall</h2><p>Green&#8217;s speed-to-power was evident in his 17-sack season for the Thundering Herd this past season. His ability to set up tackles with a deep arsenal of pass-rush moves is impressive. He has elite bend and an extremely high motor.</p><h2>8. Will Johnson, CB, Michigan</h2><p>Johnson&#8217;s an elite pattern matcher with fluid hips and explosive bursts. His ball skills and route recognition allow him to bait quarterbacks into throws they immediately regret. He has a special blend of confidence and instincts that define shutdown corners, though he lacks the top-end speed many have.</p><h2>9.  Jalon Walker, LB/ED, Georgia</h2><p>Walker is an explosive second-level defender who processes the game at an elite level. His sideline-to-sideline range and violent hands make him a force against both run and pass. He has the ability to diagnose plays pre-snap and teleport to the ball carrier on run plays.</p><h2>10. Shemar Stewart, ED, Texas A&amp;M</h2><p>Stewart&#8217;s ability to convert speed to power at his size (6-foot-5, 280 pounds) is different. He&#8217;s a freak. He didn&#8217;t have much production for the Aggies, but frankly, I don&#8217;t think teams will care too much.</p><h2><strong>11. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado</strong></h2><p>I sound like a broken record, but it bears repeating: Sanders' accuracy and ball placement are special. The debate between him and Cam Ward for QB1 is ongoing, but I think Sanders is simply the better <em>quarterback</em>. He lacks elite athleticism, and he doesn&#8217;t have &#8220;zip,&#8221; but he can surgically take his team downfield.</p><h2><strong>12. Malaki Starks, DB, Georgia</strong></h2><p>Starks wasn&#8217;t as effective as a playmaker in 2024, but he moves like a missile in the secondary with elite instincts and an explosive burst. He processes the game at an exceptional level, allowing him to play multiple positions with equal impact. His versatility and closing speed make him a defensive coordinator's dream. </p><h2>13. <strong>Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona</strong></h2><p>McMillan has more to offer than his viral one-handed, between-the-legs catches during training. He dominates the vertical game with extraordinary length, body control, and run-after-the-catch ability. He&#8217;s not the most effective at creating separation, but he&#8217;s a matchup nightmare who plays like a basketball player in cleats.</p><h2>14. <strong>Cam Ward, QB, Miami</strong></h2><p>Ward brings electric playmaking ability with high-level arm talent to all areas of the field. He shows special awareness in chaos while keeping his eyes downfield for the big play, albeit too often, which causes too many turnover-worthy throws.</p><h2><strong>15. Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan</strong></h2><p>Loveland possesses rare movement skills and natural hands for a tight end. He creates consistent separation with refined routes while showing surprising power at the point of attack.</p><h2>16. Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas</h2><p>While not the most explosive athlete, Baron is an elite ballhawk &#8212; the Thorpe Award winner flashes an uncanny football radar. Though he may not check all the boxes as a true boundary corner, he has great anticipation and timing.</p><h2>17. Walter Nolen, DT, Ole Miss</h2><p>Cue Nolen&#8217;s Senior Bowl tape, and you&#8217;ll see complete dominance. The former No.1 overall recruit in 2022 was unstoppable down in Mobile. You saw the same thing many times on tape in his lone season with Ole Miss &#8212; shooting the gap and simply being more powerful than his opponent.</p><h2>18. Armand Membou, OT, Missouri</h2><p>Membou combines massive power with surprisingly nimble feet in pass protection. He creates movement in the run game while maintaining excellent balance and anchor.</p><h2>19. Mykel Williams, ED, Georgia</h2><p>Williams is another trait-based gamble from Georgia, like Nolan Smith and Travon Walker. Williams lacked production, but he brought elite burst and bend off the edge with natural pass-rush instincts. He also has a 34 3/8 wingspan. He has traits for days that make him an enticing prospect.</p><h2>20. Kenneth Grant, DT, Michigan</h2><p>Overshadowed by his counterpart, Graham, Grant consistently reset the line of scrimmage with what&#8217;s near preternatural power and startling quickness. He&#8217;s dominant in both the run and pass rush.</p><h2>21. Jihaad Campbell, LB/ED, Alabama</h2><p>Every year, there is a defensive end or off-ball linebacker whose draft stock skyrockets after the combine. Nolan Smith in 2023. Chop Robinson in 2024. Campbell is my pick for 2025. At 6-foot-3, 243 pounds, he has a freaky burst and can naturally rush the passer.  </p><h2>22. James Pearce Jr., ED, Tennessee</h2><p>Pearce is tall and slender, yet one of the more gifted pass rushers in this class. He dominated SEC play with a unique blend of bend, twitch, and fluidity.</p><h2>23. Tyler Booker, OL, Alabama</h2><p>Bama players referred to Booker as &#8220;the Will Anderson of the offense.&#8221; Anderson went No. 3 overall just two drafts ago. Booker is one of the safest linemen in this year&#8217;s class.</p><h2>24. Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State</h2><p>Egbuka reminds me of another Ohio State product, Jaxson Smith-Njigba &#8212; both being savvy route-runners with exceptional body control and reliable hands in traffic. Like JSN, Egbuka excels from the slot with pristine footwork and spatial awareness. He&#8217;s also an exceptional blocker.</p><h2>25. Josh Simmons, OT, Ohio State</h2><p>If not for a torn ACL midway through the season, Simmons would presumably be higher. The NFL draft community awaits his medicals at the combine to see if they need to move him up or down a few spots. If his medicals look good, he could be in consideration to be the first tackle off the board.</p><div class="captioned-button-wrap" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="CaptionedButtonToDOM"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">Thanks for reading Hail Mary! This post is public, so feel free to share it.</p></div><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p></div><h2>26. TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State</h2><p>"Henderson can make a house call from anywhere," Chris Fowler noted as Henderson caught the slip-screen pass against Texas in the CFB Semifinals...75 yards later, the Buckeyes' back proved him prophetic with a touchdown sprint before halftime. He&#8217;s lightning in a bottle with exceptional pass-blocking ability. </p><h2>27. Donovan Ezeiruaku, ED, Boston College</h2><p>Ezeiruaku is undersized at 6-foot-2, 247 pounds, but he has a bottomless bag of pass-rush moves that led to a 16-sack season with the Eagles. If he can become more powerful, he&#8217;ll be a dominant force. Bigger opponents handle him pretty easily if his initial and counter fail.</p><h2>28. Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri</h2><p>Burden operates primarily from the slot position, showcasing electric playmaking ability. Despite a statistical regression &#8212; partially attributable to quarterback inconsistency &#8212; his 2023 performance demonstrated his genuine talent. The dynamic playmaker remains despite his substandard season.</p><h2>29. Nic Scourton, ED, Texas A&amp;M</h2><p>After a 10-sack season at Purdue in 2023, Scourton transferred to Texas A&amp;M and was unable to replicate the former success. I believe he can recapture that production &#8212; the traits that led to double-digit sacks are still evident in his game.</p><h2>30. Shavon Revel, CB, East Carolina</h2><p>An ACL injury sidelined him for most of the 2024 campaign, but Revel is one of the most physically gifted cornerbacks I&#8217;ve watched. At 6-foot-3, 185 pounds, he possesses extraordinary recovery speed. He lacks nuance at the position, but he&#8217;s just about everything you want at the position in terms of the physical gifts. </p><h2>31. Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC</h2><p>Hampton combines a violent running style with great vision and balance, consistently making the first defender miss while showing the speed to take any carry the distance.</p><h2>32. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas</h2><p>Regarded as the top left tackle in the draft, Banks dominates the edge with his massive frame and surprising movement skills, showing the consistent ability to mirror speed rushers while creating displacement in the run game.</p><h2>33. Grey Zabel, IOL, North Dakota State</h2><p>I don&#8217;t think there was a bigger winner during the Senior Bowl than Zabel. He stymied every defender trying to plow through him &#8212; and he did it at each position across the line. </p><h2>34. Derrick Harmon, DT, Oregon</h2><p>Harmon is a mountain of a man who controls the line of scrimmage with sheer power and leverage. His ability to eat up double teams and still generate interior pressure makes him a nightmare for opposing offenses. While he&#8217;s not the most explosive, his motor and technique allow him to consistently disrupt both the run and pass game.</p><h2>35. Matthew Golden, WR, Texas</h2><p>Golden is a smooth operator who wins with elite separation, quickness, and effortless route running. His ability to set up defenders and snap off routes makes him a consistent chain-mover, and he has a knack for finding soft spots in coverage. He&#8217;s not the biggest or fastest, but he&#8217;s a technician.</p><h2>36. T.J. Sanders, DT, South Carolina</h2><p>Sanders blends size and explosiveness to create chaos in the trenches. He has a quick first step that allows him to shoot gaps and wreck blocking schemes, but he also plays with enough power to hold his own against double teams. His pass-rush ability is the best part of his game.</p><h2>37. Josh Conerly, OT, Oregon</h2><p>A former five-star recruit, Conerly had continuous success at Oregon. He has a rare combination of a high floor and a high ceiling. His skill set blends surprising quickness with redirection ability. Conerly's talent was validated by his peers, who named him the top offensive lineman at the Senior Bowl.</p><h2>38. Elijah Arroyo, TE, Miami</h2><p>Arroyo has been skyrocketing up draft boards, and I anticipate he&#8217;ll be even higher on my final ranking. At 6-foot-4, 245 pounds, Arroyo is a natural separator with elite speed. He clocked a top speed of 21.8 mph during a 75-yard catch-and-run touchdown against Georgia Tech.</p><h2>39. Darius Alexander, DT, Toledo</h2><p>Alexander will turn 25 when the season kicks off &#8212; an age that admittedly makes front offices nervous. He&#8217;ll be 29 when it&#8217;s time for his second contract. But for contenders looking to maximize their championship window? He's exactly who you want. Turn on his tape, and you'll see why &#8212; it's littered with defenders getting manhandled snap after snap. And the way he moves at 6-foot-4, 310 pounds&#8230;It&#8217;s a lot like Chris Jones.</p><h2>40. Azareye&#8217;h Thomas, CB, Florida State</h2><p>Thomas, at 6-1 and 191 pounds, is regarded as a top perimeter cornerback. He&#8217;s a constant agitator, routinely neutralizing receivers with his length and confrontational approach at the line. Though not a prolific ball hawk, any team seeking an intimidating coverage presence will like the former Seminole.</p><h2>41. Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa</h2><p>He is one of the larger backs in the draft, and the burst that comes with his size is tantalizing. His one-cut ability, where he quickly identifies a gap, makes one decisive cut, and explodes up the field, is evident on tape. </p><h2>42. Jack Sawyer, ED, Ohio State</h2><p>Sawyer became king of the campus after his infamous scoop and score in the College Football Semi-Finals against Texas. While he won't dazzle you with any single elite trait, he&#8217;s technical and fundamentally sound. Don't expect him to lead the league in sacks, but he profiles perfectly as a dependable ED2.</p><h2>43. JT Tuimoloau, ED, Ohio State</h2><p>I view Tuimoloau similarly to his counterpart, Sawyer &#8212; nearly the same, in fact. He is not a flashy player, but he'll be a very important rotational piece that provides reliable production and versatility when called upon.</p><h2>44. Donovan Jackson, OL, Ohio State</h2><p>Many may have Jackson higher. I mean, he did seamlessly step in for an injured Josh Simmons, sliding from left guard to left tackle. The transition, to paraphrase what NFL lineman Justin Pugh once told me, is like moving a fight in a phone booth to an open field. It&#8217;s totally different. But Jackson excelled, and now it&#8217;s to be determined whether he&#8217;ll be on the interior or protecting a QB&#8217;s blindside. </p><h2>45. Xavier Watts, S, Notre Dame</h2><p>Watts brings an exceptional track record of ball production, securing 13 interceptions across two seasons. The Irish's first two-time consensus All-American since '93 makes up for man coverage shortcomings with an uncanny nose for the ball. His playmaking instincts should carry over nicely to Sundays, even if he isn't the most versatile DB in the class.</p><h2>46. Carson Schwesinger, LB, UCLA</h2><p>It&#8217;s hard not to admire Schwesinger&#8217;s story. A former walk-on turned All-American, the UCLA Bruin has had a meteoric rise throughout the draft process. He has outstanding instincts in all phases and is a fast, rangy LB who does well in coverage and defending the run.</p><h2>47. Jack Bech, WR, TCU</h2><p>Bech may have the best hands in the draft. Along with that, he&#8217;s a muscled-up receiver who creates good separation at the top of his routes and is exceptional after the catch.</p><h2>48. Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina</h2><p>A long, rangy safety with a nose for the football, Emmanwori has been the backbone of South Carolina&#8217;s secondary. His physicality and tackling ability make him an enforcer in the run game, but his versatility in coverage &#8212; whether as a deep safety or in the slot &#8212; keeps him on the field in all situations. The tools are there for him to be an impact defender at the next level.<br></p><h2>49. Maxwell Hairston, CB, Kentucky</h2><p>Despite his lighter frame at 179 pounds, Hairston does well in press coverage where most corners his size struggle. He's a scrappy, play-making cornerback with excellent technique that compensates for his size disadvantage.</p><h2>50. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State</h2><p>A big-bodied receiver with a knack for high-pointing the football, Higgins emerged as Iowa State&#8217;s go-to target in 2025. Standing at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he&#8217;s got the size and strong hands to win contested catches, but his underrated route-running and body control make him more than just a jump-ball specialist. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/gavin-rileys-top-50-2025-nfl-draft?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Why teams might roll the dice on a shaky QB class]]></title><description><![CDATA[Plus, my official draft QB rankings.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/why-teams-might-roll-the-dice-on</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/why-teams-might-roll-the-dice-on</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Thu, 06 Feb 2025 22:09:11 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Driven by a desperate need to strike gold at the position, a team <em>may</em> find its franchise quarterback in this year&#8217;s draft.</p><p>And there&#8217;s a likelihood &#8212; a high likelihood, in fact &#8212; that said team is picking in the top three.</p><p>Be that as it may, while it could be argued against, it wouldn&#8217;t be particularly shocking.</p><p>The consensus forecast among analysts &#8212; and really anyone with scouting-calibrated eyes &#8212; is that this quarterback class is bleak. Yet in a draft abnormally lacking can&#8217;t-miss prospects, two may be selected in the top five. </p><p>Granted, it&#8217;s usual for quarterbacks to go early in the NFL draft. Since 2000, there have only been three drafts (2022, 2013, and 2000) where a quarterback wasn&#8217;t selected in the top 10. Kenny Pickett, picked No. 20 to Pittsburgh in 2022; E.J. Manuel, picked No. 13 to Buffalo in 2013; and Chad Pennington, picked No. 18 to the New York Jets in 2000, were the first quarterbacks taken in those drafts. </p><p>Pickett and Manuel are widely considered busts, while Pennington turned in a solid 11-year career that included two playoff wins.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>The NFL's modern, pass-happy era has consistently proven that championship aspirations live and die with quarterback play. Organizations like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Philadelphia Eagles have flourished after finding their franchise signal-callers. </p><p>The desperation to find "the guy" often leads teams to reach in the draft, as evidenced by the countless first-round quarterback busts who've set their franchises back half a decade or more. It's a cruel paradox &#8212; teams need elite quarterback play to compete, yet rushing to draft one out of desperation often leads to even more devastating consequences than waiting. The former is the driving thought in war rooms. That results in teams constantly drafting quarterbacks higher than their boards rank them. </p><p>ESPN content producer Paul Hembo analyzed first-round NFL draft picks' success rates &#8212; a hit-miss rate &#8212; based on whether players secured a second contract with their drafting team. His data spans from 2000 to 2019 &#8212; 20 years worth of drafts. Of 56 quarterback selections, 26 were deemed a &#8220;hit,&#8221; while 30 were considered a &#8220;miss.&#8221; </p><p>A mere 46% hit rate. </p><div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png" width="490" height="621" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/a4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:621,&quot;width&quot;:490,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:341349,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/png&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:true,&quot;topImage&quot;:false,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ehFp!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fa4de7f2f-69ca-4898-8170-682f0e3b820e_490x621.png 1456w" sizes="100vw" loading="lazy"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Via Adam Schefter&#8217;s X, if you&#8217;re interested in other positions.</figcaption></figure></div><p>Yet, against these sobering historical odds, the 2024 quarterback class has transcended conventional expectations, with each first-round QB selection showing franchise-caliber promise in their rookie campaign. Perhaps most notably, the success of <a href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/sorry-michael-penix-jr-the-media">Michael Penix Jr.</a> (Atlanta Falcons, No. 8) and Bo Nix (Denver Broncos, No. 12) &#8212; who many scouts didn&#8217;t have a first-round grade on &#8212; raised eyebrows. Now? GMs Terry Fontenot and George Paton look prescient in their aggressive first-round selections.</p><p>Last year was an anomaly.</p><p>This year&#8217;s class is certainly not alike.</p><p>Echoes around the NFL continue to reverberate that the top two quarterbacks in this year&#8217;s class, Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, would be QB7 and QB8 in last year&#8217;s.</p><p>That&#8217;s why, if you&#8217;re a team in need of a QB, picking atop the 2025 draft is perilous.</p><p>E.g., the New York Giants, who have the No. 3 pick.</p><p>The Giants missed on Daniel Jones at No. 6 in 2019. Then, after consistent abysmal play, the Giants rewarded Jones with a four-year, $160 million contract. (It&#8217;s still hilariously sad. Poor Giants fans.) Selecting the wrong quarterback yet again would set the franchise back even more. However, due to the desperation for somewhat adequate play at the position, general manager Joe Schoen may feel pressured to find an answer sooner rather than later.</p><p>As for the Tennessee Titans, who pick No. 1. While I wouldn&#8217;t describe their QB situation <em>as bad</em> as the Giants, they&#8217;re faced with a tough decision: draft a hopeful franchise quarterback or draft the closest thing to a blue-chip prospect. It&#8217;s hard to ignore newest general manager Mike Borgonzi&#8217;s comments about &#8220;not passing on a generational talent.&#8221; Many, myself included, assumed that implied Abdul Carter or Travis Hunter. I still do. But the Titans&#8217; brass reportedly met with Sanders at the East-West Shrine Bowl, and <a href="https://www.si.com/nfl/giants/draft/why-one-draft-analyst-believes-cam-ward-will-be-the-first-qb-off-the-board-01jk9dn41v1z">ESPN&#8217;s Pete Thamel</a> reported that Ward is &#8220;likely&#8221; to be the Titans&#8217; pick, based on conversations with scouts and team executives at the Senior Bowl.</p><p>All of it could be a smokescreen. But where there&#8217;s smoke, there&#8217;s fire.</p><p>Sure, Ward and Sanders are tantalizing. The unknown always is. It&#8217;s fair to believe that both could develop into long-term starting quarterbacks. Ward is a strong-armed, big-play machine. But he often searches for the big play too much. Sanders, while not as physically gifted and with a less-live arm, is incredibly accurate and can move the ball downfield precisely, incrementally.</p><p>And it&#8217;s fair to question Sanders's maturity level from an anecdotal standpoint. He carries himself with the swagger you'd expect from Deion's son, though sometimes it borders on excessive pageantry. His postgame celebrations at Colorado &#8212; flashing his six-figure Richard Mille watch to an animated Buffs crowd &#8212; were viewed as deliberate flexes. Teams will need to get a feel for Sanders throughout the draft process to determine whether he&#8217;s fit to be the face of a franchise.</p><p>Beyond Ward and Sanders, the QB class is dull. Hence, needy teams may feel inclined to take one of the top two early. </p><p>There is always free agency, albeit, like the draft, a weak group. After his Pro Bowl season with the Minnesota Vikings, Sam Darnold is the cream of the crop. He completely rejuvenated his career under head coach Kevin O&#8217;Connell and is deserving of his imminent contract. The next best is Justin Fields. Young? Yes. Athletic? Yes. Playmaker? Yes. Proven? No. </p><p>Alright, alright. I can already hear Bears fans shouting from the Skydeck at Soldier Field. The attachment Bears fans have to Fields is interesting because, well, he did so little for the franchise. His limited production and inconsistent play cast warranted doubt on his ability to thrive in a starting role in 2025.</p><p>A quarterback-needy team will convince themselves Ward or Sanders is their franchise savior. Maybe they turn out to be. Maybe they don&#8217;t. And it may be a reach. Or it may not in their eyes. Nonetheless, there is detectable skepticism regarding this QB class. </p><div><hr></div><h2>Ranking the 2025 QB class</h2><p><strong>1. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado - 6&#8217;2&#8221;, 216 pounds</strong></p><p>An extremely accurate and precise passer. Sanders can surgically take his team downfield. He plays old-school football &#8212; driving the ball out of the pocket. He throws a beautiful ball. He&#8217;s an average athlete who can make plays with his legs when needed. However, questions arise when it comes to holding the ball too long. That&#8217;s easily coachable.</p><p><strong>2. Cam Ward, Miami - 6&#8217;2&#8221;, 223 pounds</strong></p><p>An above-average athlete who makes jaw-dropping plays outside the pocket. Ward combines rare improvisational skills with a lightning-quick release and a strong arm. As said earlier, he seeks the big play too often, leading to some head-scratching decisions. He&#8217;s also too nonchalant at times &#8212; standing flat-footed in the pocket is just one example.</p><p><strong>3. Will Howard, Ohio State - 6&#8217;4&#8221;, 236 pounds</strong></p><p>Howard has a prototypical frame. His national title run was nothing short of impressive. We got to see how he fared against the top defenses in the nation. He looked phenomenal. He has the physical tools, accuracy, arm strength, and athleticism teams look for in a QB. Before that run, he struggled with some inconsistencies.</p><p><strong>4. Jaxson Dart, Ole Miss - 6'1 7/8&#8221;, 226 pounds</strong></p><p>Lane Kiffin's offense perfectly showcased Dart's combination of athleticism and arm talent, as he consistently made plays both from the pocket and on the move. His aggressive mentality leads to some forced throws into tight windows, but his confidence and willingness to challenge defenses vertically open up the entire field. He may have the best deep ball in the class. His footwork is sloppy at times, especially when under center.</p><p><strong>5. Kyle McCord, Syracuse - 6&#8217;2 1/2&#8221;, 224 pounds</strong></p><p>After starting at Ohio State before transferring to Syracuse, McCord had an extremely productive season for the Orange, tossing 4,779 yards and 34 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions. Like Howard, he has a prototypical frame and an NFL arm. He&#8217;s just a complete pocket passer. You won&#8217;t find him making too many plays with his legs.</p><p><strong>6. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon - 5'10 1/2&#8221;, 202 pounds</strong></p><p>A seasoned veteran who's seen it all, Gabriel brought his talents from UCF to Oklahoma and finally to Oregon. His quick release and accuracy in the short-to-intermediate game are his calling cards, though his smaller frame and average arm strength raise some concerns. Gabriel's experience and football IQ make him an intriguing prospect.</p><p><strong>7. Quinn Ewers, Texas - 6&#8217;2&#8221;, 210 pounds</strong></p><p>The former five-star recruit possesses a natural throwing talent that&#8217;s enticing. He has good arm strength and the ability to throw from multiple platforms. His decision-making improved in his final season at Texas, showing better awareness of when to take chances and when to play it safe. However, inconsistent mechanics and footwork still lead to accuracy issues that must be ironed out at the next level. I think it would&#8217;ve benefited him to stay in college another year.</p><p><strong>8. Jalen Milroe, Alabama - 6'1 1/2&#8221;, 220 pounds</strong></p><p>Perhaps the most explosive athlete in the class, Milroe can take over games with his legs while possessing elite arm strength. His accuracy isn&#8217;t great, though. He had high expectations coming into 2024 but was underwhelming.</p><p><strong>9. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame - 6'3 3/8&#8221;, 210 pounds</strong></p><p>While Leonard doesn&#8217;t have the best arm, his passing improved drastically throughout the season. He&#8217;s a tough-nosed QB who puts his body on the line every play. He&#8217;s a playmaker with his legs. He needs development, but with his athleticism and frame, he could be a starting quarterback.</p><p><strong>10. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana - 6&#8217;3&#8221;, 223 pounds</strong></p><p>The younger brother of NFL quarterback Nathan Rourke, Kurtis is a pure pocket passer with incredible accuracy in clean pockets. After transferring from Ohio to Indiana, he showed improved pocket presence and better decision-making against Big Ten competition. Give credit where it&#8217;s due &#8212; Rourke played the entire 2024 season on a torn ACL. That&#8217;s some tough s&#8212;t. </p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/why-teams-might-roll-the-dice-on?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/why-teams-might-roll-the-dice-on?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[Jack Bech, honoring his late brother, stands out at 2025 Reese's Senior Bowl]]></title><description><![CDATA[Tiger Bech was one of 14 people killed during the Bourbon Street attack last month.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/jack-bech-honoring-his-late-brother</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/jack-bech-honoring-his-late-brother</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Mon, 03 Feb 2025 02:27:29 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Jack Bech has his Mobile moment!&#8221; shouted NFL Network&#8217;s Rhett Lewis as Bech, who had just scored the game-winning touchdown, was encircled by a congregation of ecstatic orange uniforms while he knelt in prayer. He donned No. 7, a tribute to his late brother, Tiger, who was one of the 14 people killed in the attack on Bourbon Street in New Orleans, La., last month. Tiger wore No. 7 as a wide receiver and return specialist for Princeton University from 2016-2018. </p><p>It was evident Bech&#8217;s &#8220;Mobile moment&#8221; affected him deeply. In addition to his game-winning TD, he recorded a game-high six catches for 68 yards. He was named the 2025 Reese&#8217;s Senior Bowl MVP.</p><blockquote><p>&#8220;Man, it&#8217;s simple,&#8221; Bech said to NFL Network&#8217;s Tom Pelissero after the game. &#8220;My brother had some wings on me. He gave it to me. And he let that all take place.&#8221;</p></blockquote><p>Bech has scored plenty of times, reaching the endzone thirteen times in his collegiate career. This was different, though. This score carried extra weight; it was a moment of triumph deepened with profound meaning &#8212; it was the first touchdown Tiger couldn&#8217;t witness.</p><p>Every route, every catch, has become a tribute to his late brother. Tiger was more than Bech&#8217;s brother &#8212; he was his "best friend" and "role model." His memory is permanently etched in ink: "7 to Heaven" spans Bech&#8217;s left collarbone, while Tiger's dates, inscribed in Roman numerals, rest over his heart.</p><p>A not-so-known draft prospect prior to the 2024 season, Bech improved his draft stock with an impressive week in Mobile, Ala. Aside from his heroics in the game, he was a standout during practices. The TCU product consistently won one-on-one matchups, showcasing good ball skills and a physically imposing demeanor. What particularly stood out was the blend of speed and power Bech has at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds.</p><p>Behind Bech&#8217;s awe-inspiring week in Mobile lay years of development and transformation. After a promising freshman campaign at LSU in 2021, where he amassed 43 catches for 489 yards and three touchdowns, Bech transferred to TCU in 2023. He sought more playing time in the Horned Frogs' offense. He couldn&#8217;t surpass Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. &#8212; both 2024 first-round picks &#8212; on the LSU depth chart. Under head coach Sonny Dykes' air-raid system, Bech was able to shine. This past season, Bech caught 62 passes for 1,034 yards and nine touchdowns. His breakout performance against UCF &#8212; a 200-yard, one-touchdown showcase &#8212; thrust him into the limelight of the NFL evaluators.</p><p>Tiger Bech never reached the NFL, though it was his dream. Jack Bech seems destined to fulfill that vision &#8212; carrying both their dreams forward as one.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[The Eagles passing on Justin Jefferson changed the course of Philadelphia's franchise]]></title><description><![CDATA[A reverberated &#8220;what if&#8221; in franchise history. The Eagles are set to play in their second Super Bowl in three years. That likely doesn&#8217;t happen with the selection of Justin Jefferson.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/the-eagles-passing-on-justin-jefferson</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/the-eagles-passing-on-justin-jefferson</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Fri, 31 Jan 2025 01:48:06 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="captioned-image-container"><figure><a class="image-link image2 is-viewable-img" target="_blank" href="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg" data-component-name="Image2ToDOM"><div class="image2-inset"><picture><source type="image/webp" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_424,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_848,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw"><img src="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg" width="1296" height="729" data-attrs="{&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg&quot;,&quot;srcNoWatermark&quot;:null,&quot;fullscreen&quot;:null,&quot;imageSize&quot;:null,&quot;height&quot;:729,&quot;width&quot;:1296,&quot;resizeWidth&quot;:null,&quot;bytes&quot;:214880,&quot;alt&quot;:null,&quot;title&quot;:null,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image/jpeg&quot;,&quot;href&quot;:null,&quot;belowTheFold&quot;:false,&quot;topImage&quot;:true,&quot;internalRedirect&quot;:null,&quot;isProcessing&quot;:false,&quot;align&quot;:null,&quot;offset&quot;:false}" class="sizing-normal" alt="" srcset="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_424,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 424w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_848,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 848w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_1272,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 1272w, https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!ovB3!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58a1ec2f-1e4c-4718-8252-0ccb8cb84c0d_1296x729.jpeg 1456w" sizes="100vw" fetchpriority="high"></picture><div class="image-link-expand"><div class="pencraft pc-display-flex pc-gap-8 pc-reset"><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container restack-image"><svg role="img" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="none" stroke-width="1.5" stroke="var(--color-fg-primary)" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg"><g><title></title><path d="M2.53001 7.81595C3.49179 4.73911 6.43281 2.5 9.91173 2.5C13.1684 2.5 15.9537 4.46214 17.0852 7.23684L17.6179 8.67647M17.6179 8.67647L18.5002 4.26471M17.6179 8.67647L13.6473 6.91176M17.4995 12.1841C16.5378 15.2609 13.5967 17.5 10.1178 17.5C6.86118 17.5 4.07589 15.5379 2.94432 12.7632L2.41165 11.3235M2.41165 11.3235L1.5293 15.7353M2.41165 11.3235L6.38224 13.0882"></path></g></svg></button><button tabindex="0" type="button" class="pencraft pc-reset pencraft icon-container view-image"><svg xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" width="20" height="20" viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-linecap="round" stroke-linejoin="round" class="lucide lucide-maximize2 lucide-maximize-2"><polyline points="15 3 21 3 21 9"></polyline><polyline points="9 21 3 21 3 15"></polyline><line x1="21" x2="14" y1="3" y2="10"></line><line x1="3" x2="10" y1="21" y2="14"></line></svg></button></div></div></div></a><figcaption class="image-caption">Photo via Jason Getz/USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure></div><p>Among the critiqued Philadelphia Eagles&#8217; fanbase &#8212; the most ruthless, passionate, and tenacious people &#8212; one of the biggest &#8220;what ifs&#8221; in franchise history still finds itself at the center of discourse, despite the organization&#8217;s success since the draft-day blunder.</p><p>On April 23, 2020, the Eagles inadvertently gifted the second coming of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings: LSU&#8217;s Justin Jefferson. Instead, they opted for TCU&#8217;s Jalen Reagor. Doug Pederson &#8212; head coach then &#8212; and general manager Howie Roseman went into the draft prioritizing fit rather than the better prospect. Jefferson was perceived solely as a slot receiver, while Reagor was an outside/speed receiver who could stretch the field vertically. That&#8217;s what the organization wanted, especially with two above-average tight ends occupying the middle of the field &#8212; Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert &#8212; and Greg Ward coming off of a productive year in the slot. </p><div class="subscription-widget-wrap-editor" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe&quot;,&quot;language&quot;:&quot;en&quot;}" data-component-name="SubscribeWidgetToDOM"><div class="subscription-widget show-subscribe"><div class="preamble"><p class="cta-caption">On the Clock is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.</p></div><form class="subscription-widget-subscribe"><input type="email" class="email-input" name="email" placeholder="Type your email&#8230;" tabindex="-1"><input type="submit" class="button primary" value="Subscribe"><div class="fake-input-wrapper"><div class="fake-input"></div><div class="fake-button"></div></div></form></div></div><p>The Eagles&#8217; fanbase didn&#8217;t care about fit &#8212; they had been clamoring for Jefferson throughout the entire draft process. However, many Hail Mary readers know I had, in fact, not. I had been in the Reagor camp. </p><p>I own that. We all miss sometimes.</p><p>The 2020 NFL Draft was the COVID-19 draft. Without an in-person event, Roger Goodell announced selections from the comfort of his NFL-adorned and book-shelved basement. Draftees didn&#8217;t walk across the stage like in any other draft, and there was no fan attendance, albeit a good thing for Reagor. Philadelphia fans always make their way out to the NFL Draft. They travel largely. It&#8217;s fair to surmise that Reagor evaded a cluster of tumultuous boos for merely getting drafted, a selection he himself had no influence on. Certainly, there were boos, just none Reagor could hear from his watch party in Waxahachie, Texas.</p><p>Jefferson, selected one pick later, wouldn&#8217;t have received that reaction. No, the entire city of Philadelphia would have erupted with joy. </p><p>Since then, Jefferson has racked up 7,432 yards, 40 touchdowns, two First-Team All-Pro honors (2021, 2025), and two Second-Team All-Pro honors (2022, 2024). Conversely, Reagor has been traded once &#8212; ironically to the Vikings &#8212; and cut twice, once by Minnesota and once by the New England Patriots. The Eagles gave up on Reagor two seasons after drafting him; he failed to live up to the Earth-sized expectations the fanbase set for him after Jefferson&#8217;s rookie-year breakout.</p><p>If you&#8217;re going to pass on a player currently on the path to becoming an all-time great, it helps to correct your mistake with not one, but two elite receivers. </p><p>DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown.</p><p>Since becoming teammates in 2022, the duo has solidified themselves among the most formidable tandems in the NFL. They&#8217;ve combined for 8,042 yards and 52 touchdowns as Eagles.</p><p>Roseman got it right by trading up for Smith in the 2021 NFL Draft. It was a pick that sparked a new philosophy for the Eagles: build through the SEC, which he carried into subsequent drafts. Georgia&#8217;s Jordan Davis (6-foot-6, 332 pounds) in 2022 didn't perfectly align with the Eagles' traditional preferences for smaller, more athletic defensive tackles, but they took him because he was talented. Roseman then went back the Georgia well. The selection of Jalen Carter in 2023, despite character concerns that knocked him off countless draft boards, further exemplified this adopted talent-first approach. Carter was regarded by many analysts as the best prospect in the draft.</p><p>The Eagles' draft room suddenly transformed from a space of rigid parameters fixated on fit to one of flexibility and adaptation. In recent years, coordinators have learned to adjust their scheme to ensure a player&#8217;s capabilities are highlighted. It's a complete reversal from the Jefferson decision, where scheme fit trumped undeniable talent.</p><p>Now, the Eagles are heading to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. I&#8217;m not sure that happens if Jefferson is the pick in 2020. </p><p>The Jefferson decision still echoes throughout the city of Philadelphia. But in its wake, Roseman has done something greater &#8212; he&#8217;s turned the Eagles into a powerhouse, and has revealed a blueprint other owners will soon begin to follow.</p><p>Sometimes, the best lessons come wrapped in mistakes. For Roseman and the Eagles, that lesson changed everything.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/the-eagles-passing-on-justin-jefferson?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/the-eagles-passing-on-justin-jefferson?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p>]]></content:encoded></item><item><title><![CDATA[How a position switch made Penn State's Abdul Carter a potential No. 1 pick]]></title><description><![CDATA[Six months ago, Abdul Carter began playing somewhat of a foreign full-time defensive end position. Now, he's being regarded as the best player in the 2025 NFL Draft.]]></description><link>https://www.gavinriley.com/p/how-a-position-switch-made-penn-states</link><guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.gavinriley.com/p/how-a-position-switch-made-penn-states</guid><dc:creator><![CDATA[Gavin Riley]]></dc:creator><pubDate>Tue, 28 Jan 2025 01:40:53 GMT</pubDate><enclosure url="https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!TTct!,w_256,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Ffd36bfee-25e6-4656-9834-2e8403314fe6_1080x1080.png" length="0" type="image/jpeg"/><content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Abdul Carter exploded off the edge with a wicked-fast first step and found himself quickly approaching quarterback Drew Allar. In a subsequent play, he teleported there again. And then a couple more times.</p><p>Of course, this was during Penn State&#8217;s Blue-White game back in April, which also gave the first look at Carter playing his new position.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Subscribe now&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/subscribe?"><span>Subscribe now</span></a></p><p>When reports surfaced in April that Carter would be transitioning from an off-ball linebacker to a full-time defensive end, it became front-page news in college football and the NFL draft community.</p><p>It was a surprising move, albeit one that made sense. In two seasons as a linebacker, Carter excelled. He recorded 11 sacks, 104 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, 10 quarterback hurries, and three forced fumbles. However, Penn State was losing Chop Robinson and Adisa Isaac, two highly-productive defensive ends that accounted for 44.5 tackles for loss the prior two seasons. Both had declared for the 2024 NFL Draft &#8212; Robinson, a first-round pick and Isaac, a second-round pick. </p><p>In his first year filling their shoes, Carter had over half of their production.  </p><p>Carter accumulated 12 sacks, 23.5 tackles for loss, and a constellation of pressures. Despite the narrow loss, his best game of the season came in his three-sack performance against Ohio State. His previous displays of quarterback harassment from the second level had merely scratched the surface compared to what he could do as a full-time edge rusher.</p><p>The transition from linebacker to defensive end allowed us to see Carter&#8217;s freak-like abilities. In this instance, &#8220;freak&#8221; is an endearing description. At 6-foot-3, 252 pounds, he&#8217;s quick-twitched and violent with incredible burst and change of direction skills &#8212; skills the most dominant edge rushers in the NFL possess. At times during this past season, he was utterly untouchable; he got off the line of scrimmage so quickly that in the blink of an eye, the opposing tackle or guard he&#8217;d just screamed past was looking back in bewilderment. </p><p>Penn State got creative with Carter, which also showed NFL scouts his versatility. According to PFF, Carter lined up six times in the B gap, nine over tackle, 627 outside tackle, and 92 off-ball, which he had been accustomed to from his days at linebacker. </p><p>After Carter&#8217;s dominant season, inevitable parallels to former Nittany Lion Micah Parsons emerged. Parsons is widely considered one of the NFL&#8217;s best edge rushers. Undoubtedly, both wearing No. 11 has something to do with it &#8212; a number that has become synonymous with greatness in Penn State&#8217;s football program &#8212; but Parsons, like Carter, began as a linebacker and transitioned to defensive end. At least that was Penn State&#8217;s plan for Parsons, who opted out of the 2020 season due to the pandemic. With a season&#8217;s worth of tape at defensive end, it&#8217;s fair to wonder whether Parsons, the No. 12 pick, would have been selected higher.</p><p>Common knowledge in the NFL is that if you have players who can get to the quarterback, the likelihood of winning football games is higher. In turn, there is a higher chance of reaching the crux of the NFL season: the Super Bowl. Because of that, pass-rushers are highly valued. Not only is high draft capital often expended on the position, but money is too. Edge rushers are the highest-paid non-quarterbacks in the NFL. The highest-paid right now, San Francisco 49ers&#8217; Nick Bosa, signed a five-year, $170 million extension last season.</p><p>In an era where the NFL is placing a premium on edge rushers, Carter's emergence couldn't be more perfectly timed. Amidst the maelstrom of draft speculation, he now finds himself in the conversation to be the first-overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.</p><p>After a 3-14 season, the Tennessee Titans hold the first pick. While they desperately need a quarterback, newly-minted general manager Mike Borgonzi said in his debut press conference, &#8220;We won&#8217;t pass on a generational talent with the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.&#8221; </p><p>To me, that signals two players: Carter or Travis Hunter, the Heisman Trophy winning WR/CB from Colorado. Most will think it&#8217;s the latter, but I believe it&#8217;s the former. Hunter, the two-way phenom, most certainly could go No. 1 and not many would bat an eye. But what he&#8217;ll play in the NFL is still a mystery: will he be primarily be a cornerback and have packages at wide receiver, or will he be a wide receiver and moonlight on defense? </p><p>With Carter, you&#8217;re getting a certainty &#8212; a bonified disruptor whose potential at edge rusher is through the roof.</p><p class="button-wrapper" data-attrs="{&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https://www.gavinriley.com/p/how-a-position-switch-made-penn-states?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share&quot;,&quot;text&quot;:&quot;Share&quot;,&quot;action&quot;:null,&quot;class&quot;:null}" data-component-name="ButtonCreateButton"><a class="button primary" href="https://www.gavinriley.com/p/how-a-position-switch-made-penn-states?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email&utm_content=share&action=share"><span>Share</span></a></p><h2></h2><p></p>]]></content:encoded></item></channel></rss>